Monday 25th of November 2024

a race to the finish .....

a race to the finish .....

Last Thursday, before flying from Istanbul to Ankara, and then home, Julia Gillard held the final press conference of her trip abroad. Given all that was happening at home, there was plenty to ask the Prime Minister.

The government had called in the administrators to clean out the Health Services Union, the Workplace Relations Minister, Bill Shorten, had gone harder than Gillard regarding the gravity of Peter Slipper's alleged sexual harassment, and tongues were flapping again about the leadership.

The press conference was supposed to be held in a small function room of the hotel. The Australian flag, as usual, was already placed behind where the podium would be, the TV cameras were setting up and the journalists were taking their seats.

But then, all were ushered out and told the event would be outside, to provide a ''more suitable backdrop''.

A comical episode ensued, in which a well-meaning staffer carried the portable podium around the front of the Istanbul Hyatt looking for a distinctly Turkish backdrop that would look good on TV.

A large potted palm was considered, before a garden bed (which, by the way, only a botanist could know was Turkish) won the day.

Politicians of all persuasions obsess with the backdrop at press conferences, but given the circumstances on Thursday, this particular routine seemed a trifle unnecessary.

All it did was lend an air of unreality and raise questions about the awareness of the seriousness of the government's problems.

It was as if a potted palm was going to make it all better.

Gillard is no dill. As she said yesterday while trying to rationalise the about-faces on Slipper and Craig Thomson, she was aware while overseas ''of the depth of feeling'' surrounding the Slipper issue, but only when she arrived home did she feel it ''very sharply''.

What she also would have felt sharply was the renewed heat on her leadership. Just two months after receiving a resounding endorsement from caucus, Gillard found herself again under threat.

People who had backed her in the February ballot were talking not with malevolence but in a matter-of-fact fashion that something had to change. ''We are not going to an election on 28-29 per cent [primary vote],'' was the similar refrain.

Said one MP traditionally close to Gillard: ''Her support's crumbling around her and she knows it.''

There is no clear plan if there were to be a change. Kevin Rudd and Stephen Smith remain the most obvious candidates. Shorten will fancy himself but is nowhere near ready.

The misty-eyed suggest Bob Carr, but they fail to explain how on earth he could move from the Senate to the lower house, because this would require Labor to win a by-election.

Yesterday's announcement was an exercise in humility for Gillard, coming after a week of defending Slipper's right to return as Speaker while sexual harassment claims against him were unresolved - and after Anthony Albanese had essentially declared Slipper fit to return.

She talked about a line being crossed and a dark cloud over the Parliament. In essence, the weight of all that had been building around Thomson and Slipper had finally become unbearable.

To save her leadership and restore the integrity of Parliament that people were demanding, Gillard wheeled out the political equivalent of the skip and had a clean-out.

In the short term, sidelining Slipper and Thomson removes the possibility of the budget being overshadowed by an opposition motion against the Speaker, because Labor has now done everything Tony Abbott has demanded regarding Slipper. Even if he still moves a motion, he will not find sufficient numbers among the independents.

Gillard can argue she has listened, acted - albeit belatedly - and now should be allowed to get on and govern.

But keep watch for something on the carbon tax. Those who in recent days have been urging Gillard to clean house have also mooted some sort of backflip later this year on the carbon price in the spirit of John Howard's 2001 freezing of fuel excise to sool anger over the GST. Perhaps an ''electricity bonus'' or something similar.

Even if Gillard gets the clean air she so desperately craves, it is obvious the weight of trying to hold together such an unwieldy hung parliament and meet the competing demands of the independents and Greens has stretched this government to breaking point.

Technically, Thomson's ouster changes nothing because he will still support Labor. With Slipper out of play and Labor's Anna Burke in the Speaker's chair, the Coalition has 71 MPs on the floor to Labor's 70. In the event Adam Bandt, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Craig Thomson side with Labor, and Tony Crook, Bob Katter and the disgruntled Andrew Wilkie back the Coalition, then Burke will have to use her casting vote to break a 74-74 tie.

Wilkie is still guaranteeing supply and confidence but vowing to play hardball on individual policy measures. He will ramp up his poker machine reform demands whenever the government needs his vote.

Good luck.

It was his intransigence on this very issue that helped bring Gillard's leadership to the brink in the first place and prompted the government to deal with Slipper and sideline Wilkie.

Wilkie can demand what he likes.

From now on, Gillard, or whom-ever may succeed her, would rather lose a vote than go through that rigmarole again. The same applies to the other independents as well.

Gillard Can Rearrange The Backdrop But The Outlook Remains The Same