Monday 25th of November 2024

crossed lines .....

crossed lines .....

If you believe the polls, the opposition and some of the media commentary over the past 24 hours, Julia Gillard's government is not just hanging by a thread on the rocks. It's a disaster of historic proportions. In all of this is the underlying question of the Prime Minister's judgement.

But as government ministers are at pains to keep pointing out, the Gillard government is not planning to go anywhere anytime soon. Ms Gillard is a "gutsy" leader with the numbers in the caucus. Indeed, as Trade Minister Craig Emerson said in the wake of the Slipper/Thomson dual sidelining, "life goes on."

With the government's mortality on the national agenda again, what has Ms Gillard got right and what has she got wrong since she rolled Kevin Rudd?

Wrong

1. Rolling Rudd so quickly: Cabinet government was a mess and the voters were unhappy campers in June 2010. Ms Gillard was everyone's favourite deputy prime minister and when she moved against Rudd he didn't even have the numbers to contest the ballot. But the Coup That Killed Kevin left voters wondering "What just happened? Is that allowed?" The fact that Ms Gillard then pretended like nothing had happened only added to the prolonged feeling of national weirdness.

2. Pledging major things and then un-pledging them ... without justifying her thinking - such as there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead. The line has kept Tony Abbott in slogans for 19 months. And the reversal on poker machine reform has created a very grumpy and potentially destructive Andrew Wilkie.

3. Not nipping the Thomson allegations in the bud: Would the focus right now be more on Thomson, the HSU and Fair Work Australia and less on Gillard's judgement if the MP had been moved to the crossbenches last year? There's toughing something out and then there's sticking one's noggin in the political sand.

4. Appointing Slipper to the Speakership: Yes, the guy has a good command of the House. And runs a quip-tastic question time. But he does not have a squeaky clean track record. This doesn't make him guilty of the civil and criminal claims against him. But it does make you wonder why the government took the punt on Slipper in the first place. Temping? Yes. Sensible? No.

5. "Because we are us": For all those who thought that you couldn't get a more annoying political slogan than endlessly repeating "moving forward", Gillard's speech at the Labor conference last year was a revelation. It gave the opposition instant ammo. But it also suggested that Gillard didn't have a clear sense of what her government was about.

Other contenders: the aborted "citizens assembly"; playing chicken with the opposition over offshore processing; sticking doggedly with the surplus despite shifts in tax revenue, the global economic situation and advice to the contrary from economists; sticking to the talking points instead of answering the question.

Right

1. Bob Carr for Canberra: In what was possibly the most on again, off again ministerial appointment in recent history, Bob Carr - former premier and perennial history buff - was made foreign minister in March. Not only did it put Kevin Rudd firmly in his place, it brought some much-needed experience to the Senate and reasserted Gillard's authority (I will decide who comes to my Cabinet and the circumstances in which they come).

2. 300-plus and counting: Despite the naysayers and perils of minority government, the 43rd parliament has actually been passing legislation. Negotiation works - Gillard and co are proving it. They say they are getting things done and across areas such as economy, environment, health, communications and education - they are.

3. Succeeding where others did not: The carbon tax - as we are so often reminded - felled Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd. Arguably it had a role in John Howard's downfall too. Australia's Clean Energy Future has cost Gillard dearly, but last year, the government got the legislation through the lower and upper houses and it is now law. Put that in your low emissions pipe and smoke it.

4. Finally calling Rudd out: The Kevin situation had been festering along for months and months - with Rudd looking more and more like a PM at large. Then, on a February morning in Adelaide, Gillard finally explained why the government got rid of Rudd and noted how uncool his behaviour had been. She was brave, fearless and frank. She staked her claim on the prime ministership. And it worked - Rudd's supposed support evaporated (at least for now).

5. Making Congress Cry: Kevin was supposed to be the good one at foreign affairs and the one that the Americans loved. But on her first trip to the United States, Gillard made a speech that had US Congress reaching for the Kleenex. Since then, she's become great mates with POTUS even if he is yet to pronounce her name right.

Other contenders: reforms with the National Disability Insurance Scheme, aged care and private health insurance. Has kept her cool in the face of daily jokes about her derriere, atheism, personal life and cavoodle puppy. Watched out for Abbott at the Australia Day protest, despite the hairy security situation and the fact that he really, really wants her job.

Gillard's Profit & Loss Account