For years now, large numbers of prominent scientists have been warning, with increasing urgency, that if we continue with business as usual, the results will be very bad, perhaps catastrophic. They could be wrong. But if you’re going to assert that they are in fact wrong, you have a moral responsibility to approach the topic with high seriousness and an open mind. After all, if the scientists are right, you’ll be doing a great deal of damage.

But what we had, instead of high seriousness, was a farce: a supposedly crucial hearing stacked with people who had no business being there and instant ostracism for a climate skeptic who was actually willing to change his mind in the face of evidence. As I said, no surprise: as Upton Sinclair pointed out long ago, it’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

But it’s terrifying to realize that this kind of cynical careerism — for that’s what it is — has probably ensured that we won’t do anything about climate change until catastrophe is already upon us.

So on second thought, I was wrong when I said that the joke was on the G.O.P.; actually, the joke is on the human race. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/opinion/04krugman.html?_r=1&src=ISMR_HP_LO_MST_FB&pagewanted=print

Gus: meanwhile in Aussieland, the Alan Jones, the Bolts, the McSweenies and the Devines still peddle the untruth because they are paid to tell porkies... while the Abbotts are just clever idiots.

The ozone layer has seen unprecedented damage in the Arctic this winter due to cold weather in the upper atmosphere.

By the end of March, 40% of the ozone in the stratosphere had been destroyed, against a previous record of 30%.

The ozone layer protects against skin cancer, but the gas is destroyed by reactions with industrial chemicals.

These chemicals are restricted by the UN's Montreal Protocol, but they last so long in the atmosphere that damage is expected to continue for decades.

The destructive reactions are promoted by cold conditions in the stratosphere.

While this is an annual occurrence in the Antarctic, where it has garnered the term "ozone hole", the Arctic picture is less clear as stratospheric weather is less predictable.

This winter, while the Arctic region was unusually warm at ground level, temperatures 15-20km above the Earth's surface plummeted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12969167

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The Federal Government's chief climate adviser Ross Garnaut has blamed "high-profile" commentators for spreading misinformation about global warming.

Admitting that climate science is complicated, Professor Garnaut says the debate must be grounded on sound information and logical analysis.

"The scientific evidence is clear that the Earth is warming, that humans are making a significant contribution to that," he said.

"The risks are high of serious disruption to our ways of life if there is no effective mitigation of the growth in emissions."

He says it is a "puzzle" that a proportion of Australians "haven't absorbed those basic realities".

"It's a bit harder for some members of the community to grasp the realities because there are high-profile sources of opinion that contest the science," he said.

Professor Garnaut says he has characterised this in the past as "a contest between knowledge and ignorance".

"The contest between soundly based ideas, based on decades of research that are reflected in the mainstream science and the loose opinions that are given a lot of weight, sometime equal weight, on the airwaves," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/05/3182866.htm?section=justin

Whitening clouds by spraying them with seawater, proposed as a "technical fix" for climate change, could do more harm than good, according to research.

Whiter clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, cooling the Earth.

But a study presented at the European Geosciences Union meeting found that using water droplets of the wrong size would lead to warming, not cooling.

...

"The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions," he said.

"We need real-world data and we need modelling that tries to simulate clouds on more appropriate scales, and that means less than 100m or so, because if you look at a deck of stratocumulus it's not one big thing, it has pockets and cells and other features.

"Far more uncertain is the idea that you'd inject a particular drop size, because it won't stay that size for long - it will spread out, and that would be uncertain."

Professor Salter, too, believes more research needs to be done, including building a prototype injector ship and studying how it works in practice.

Interviewed by the BBC late last year, he said that such research was urgently needed because there was little sign of real cuts being made in the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12983795

Gus: see image at top...

As I have mentioned in quite a few places on this site (see and now for the weather), the behaviour of vater vapor is one of the major key in global warming. But the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere influences the behaviour of water vapor very strongly. Cutting down the amount of CO2 present in the atmosphere by half would reduce worldwide temperature by an average 5 degrees C. With doubling the amount of CO2, worldwide temperature can shoot as high 6 degrees C (in gross figures: 3 degrees in the equatorial/tropical regions, 6 degrees in the temperate regions with pockets of readjustment, around 9 degrees in the polar regions depending on land mass and sea distribution). At present we're adding enough CO2 to increase worldwide temperature by at least 4 to 5 degrees C by 2100. This is why the United Nations want to achieve a target of 60 per cent reduction in emissions of CO2 by 2050 to limit the increase of temperature to only 2 degrees C (still rising beyond this marker though).

But our (worldwide) rate of CO2 emission in the atmosphere is increasing and most likely will double the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by 2070.

We're in deep trouble, folks.

I will add here that more and more often, I observe what I call "unshapen clouds" in the sky. These clouds are often low but can be quite high in the sky too. They are uncharacteristically shapen with fuzzy and tentacular edges and are surrounded by invisble high humidity, with higher temperature preventing these clouds to form into say cumulus or nimbus... And when the clouds become dark nimbus, they often do not rain (contrary to what they should do: rain) because the temperature is still too high (see dew point)... see picture at top again.

At least 14 people have died in Madagascar after eating toxic sardines.

Officials say more than 120 people remain seriously ill after the incident in the south-western town of Toliara.

The government sent its condolences to the victims' families, promising to foot the medical bills of those being treated in hospital.

Samples of the sardines have been sent for analysis. In previous incidents, researchers said the contaminated sardines had eaten poisonous seaweed.

They say seaweed has proliferated among Madagascar's coral reefs as global warming changes the sea conditions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12993339

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Other influences on seaweed growth include fertiliser runoffs from cultivation... I don't know if there are any cotton farms or other types of intensive farming in that region near the coast. Some seaweeds are not poisonous. Blue green algae is toxic though... We're messing up with long established balances at local and global level in ways we hardly can imagine yet... collapse of environments are not always linear. Most collapses happen rapidly, until there are no American Passenger Pigeon left...

Southern England and Wales have had their driest March since 1961, with each area having only a quarter of the expected rainfall. The driest region, East Anglia, had only 15 per cent of its normal precipitation in its driest March since 1929, and the second-driest since records began in 1910. Water UK, the umbrella body for the water companies in England and Wales, says there is "currently no concern about water supplies, but we are keeping an eye on things after what was a very dry March".

But the situation could change relatively quickly, if the dry weather runs on through April. A water company nightmare would be a repeat of the drought of 1995, or even worse, 1976, when water supplies were rationed.

The Met Office is suggesting that the pattern of a dry south and wet north is likely to continue over the next month. "England and Wales should still have a lot of fine and dry weather with some long spells of sunshine during the day," says its forecast for up to the end of the first week in May. "There will also be some showers or rain at times but rainfall should be below normal. Temperatures will be generally near normal or above normal everywhere."

As for this weekend, much of the country will be sunny and warm on both days, with some places very warm, even – dare we use the word? – hot. The forecast for the weekend is so good that the RSPCA has issued a warning to pet-owners reminding them of the dangers of leaving animals in hot cars, conservatories or caravans. "Often, owners make the mistake of thinking that it is sufficient to leave a bowl of water or a window open for their pet, but this is not enough to protect your pet from heatstroke, which can have fatal consequences," the charity said. Outside temperatures of 22C, recorded in southern England this week, could lead to the temperature in a car soaring to 47C in an hour. And Britain's bookmakers are braced for the busiest day of the year today with the Grand National at Aintree. The bookies believe the fine weather will encourage people to go out into the high street and place a bet.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/summer-comes-early-but-heat-brings-threat-of-drought-for-millions-2265433.html

Gus: yet the northern part of England has been quite wetted... In Sydney, from my observations, the temperature has been at least 2 degrees C above average, since the beginning of the year... Same with the humidity... Wait and see what the Met Bureau says...