By Alex Kirby

The sensitivity of the Earth system to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be twice as great as scientists had thought, new climate records from the distant past suggest.

LONDON, 11 December – You may think the prospect of climate change is alarming, a call to action to slow down our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

You’re almost certainly right. But some scientists are now suggesting you should be much more concerned than you are, because they think we may be seriously underestimating the problem.

The Geological Society of London (GSL) says the sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to CO2 could be double earlier estimates.

The Society has published an addition to a report by a GSL working party in 2010, which was entitled Climate change: Evidence from the Geological Record.
The addition says many climate models typically look at short term, rapid factors when calculating the Earth’s climate sensitivity, which is defined as the average global temperature increase brought about by a doubling of CO2  in the atmosphere.

Scientists agree that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels could result in temperature increases of between 1.5 and 4.5°C, caused by rapid changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour of clouds and water vapour.

But what the GSL now says is that geological evidence from palaeoclimatology (studies of past climate change) suggests that if longer-term factors are taken into account, such as the decay of large ice sheets, the Earth’s sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 could itself be double that predicted by most climate models.

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As Gus has argue for a long time, the melting of the ice sheets and the warming of the oceans is masking the true effect of global warming... There will be a point soon (2047 for the planet as calculated by serious scientists using data and models available — 2032 as calculated by Gus with an elastic measuring unit) when the effects of melting and sea warming will stop retarding the fast warming of the atmosphere... We are at critical mass... 20 years in geological terms is nothing... The warming process has been in place since the beginning of the industrial revolution... But the effects are MASSIVE... Science is correct: GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC...  and it will be deadlier sooner than we think.

America's Bipolar Climate Future

By Marc Hujer and Samiha Shafy

New York City and New Bern, North Carolina both face the same projected rise in sea levels, but while one is preparing for the worst, the other is doing nothing on principle. A glimpse into America's contradictory climate change planning.

When Veronica White and Tom Thompson stand on the coastline of their respective cities, 680 kilometers (423 miles) apart, they gaze out at the same ocean, but see different things.

White, the commissioner of the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation, believes "we have to prepare the entire coastline for disasters, including storms and rising floodwaters." Thompson, a former city planner in New Bern, North Carolina -- an eight-hour drive to the south -- argues the opposite. "All this panic about the climate always amazes me, but people like to believe horror stories," he says.

Since 1900, the sea level in both cities has risen by about 30 centimeters (12 inches). According to calculations by a group of climatologists working for New York City, the sea level in that city could rise by more than three-quarters of a meter (2.5 feet) by 2050, and by one-and-a-half meters 30 years later. The group of experts warns that by the end of the century, average temperatures in New York could be as high as they are in North Carolina today.

According to the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission (CRC), that state, like New York, will also see warmer temperatures by the end of the century, as well as a sea-level rise of more than one meter. But now the state government in North Carolina has muzzled the CRC with a new law that requires coastal communities to ignore its prognoses. The legislation states that the sea level off the North Carolina coast will not rise more quickly than it has in the last 100 years.

In the United States, two very different worlds have come into existence along the same coastline. In one of those worlds, people pay attention to climate predictions. In the other, they don't. While New Yorkers believe they have to do something against global warming, because it could spell the city's demise, the citizens of New Bern would rather put their faith in God's creation. In New Bern, climate change is a question of faith and conviction that touches on broader issues of American identity. Indeed, climate change has become central to a culture war over the future of America.

A Movement to Prevent Preparations

"If sea levels did go up by a meter," says Tom Thompson at the New Bern marina, "most of New Bern would be uninhabitable." He is 69 and despite his white hair, looks younger. He walks along the boardwalk, past a new riverfront park and the Hilton Hotel. All of it reflects his work as a city planner. Thompson has brought companies to New Bern, including Bosch-Siemens, which built a factory for electronic devices there, and he knows many people in the North Carolina business world.

He had just retired -- proud of the world he had created -- when the CRC delivered its prognosis that sea levels would rise by about a meter within the next 100 years, swallowing buildings, roads and public squares. It was the same number officials in other coastal states had come up with as a result of scientific research. For Thompson, however, that one-meter announcement was nothing less than a declaration of war, an assault on his legacy.

Shortly after the news appeared in the papers, Thompson worked from an office in the storage room of his wife's business, a home furnishings store on Main Street in New Bern. Sitting in a small space between two cuckoo clocks, Thompson began reaching out to the lobby he had once assembled to protect the local economy against regulation.

He called heads of chambers of commerce with whom he was on a first-name basis. He also spoke to the urban developers and chief executives of the companies he had brought to North Carolina. Thompson told all of them his horror story: of roads and highways that would have to be raised by at least a meter because of the predicted rise in sea level, of disappearing boardwalks and businesses fleeing the area. He also warned them that the building conversions, evacuation routes and property insurance would cost billions.

'They Have No Evidence'

According to Thompson, some 5,200 square kilometers (about 2,000 square miles) of the state would be in jeopardy. His friends and business associates were alarmed. Was North Carolina about to become a billion-dollar grave?

Thompson told his story until, eventually, Pat McElraft, a Republican member of the state's General Assembly, wrote a paragraph into a bill known as HB 819, which included various anti-climate change provisions.

In April 2013, the North Carolina Department of Public Safety presented an official report on what a one-meter rise in sea level would mean to the state. The economic losses would be staggering, since the affected areas are covered with homes, office buildings and public facilities worth a total of $7.4 billion (€5.16 billion). Everything would have to be rebuilt to withstand the storm surges.

And why? "Just because a few scientists are claiming that that's what will happen," says Thompson. "But they have no evidence. We're supposed to spend money on something that might not happen at all."

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Read more at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/contradictory-climate-change-planning-in-new-york-city-and-new-bern-a-938704.html

Thousands of bats have died across Queensland after extremely hot weather at the weekend.

On Saturday Dayboro resident Murray Paas found hundreds of dead flying foxes on the ground of his 1.5-hectare property. He filmed the sight and uploaded it to YouTube, describing it as “massive carnage” from the extreme temperatures, which rose above 43C in Brisbane on Saturday.

Paas told Guardian Australia that he estimated more than 1,000 bats had died in the heat on his property alone.

“[The bats] usually only hang out in the tops of the trees but throughout the day they were getting lower and lower … trying to get as much shelter as they could from the sun,” he said.

However, by the end of the day many of the 10,000-strong colony had perished, falling to the ground or hanging dead from branches.

Paas said Moreton Bay council had still not come around to clean up the dead bats, despite repeated calls and having warned Paas not to touch them himself for fear of infection. Since Guardian Australia’s inquiries the council has said it would be in Dayboro on Monday afternoon.

Paas said he got through to the council on Sunday morning but the only action taken had been the delivery of five wheelie bins and a promise that someone would return soon to fill them.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/06/thousands-of-bats-killed-by-hot-weather-in-queensland

Maybe Maurice Newman was dizzy from the schadenfreude of seeing a climate scientist getting stuck in Antarctic sea ice?

Perhaps the unnatural heat from Australia's warmest year on record was playing tricks on the brain of Tony Abbott's top business adviser?

Maybe the documented CWM effect – the high prevalence of climate change denialism among conservative white males - is especially strong in the 75-year-old former stockbroker, banker and chair of the ABC and the ASX?

Whatever the cause, Newman has turned his conspiracy theory dial well passed 11 with his latest outburst.

In a column published in The Australian newspaper he wrote that the "climate change establishment" (whatever that is) is intent only on "exploiting the masses and extracting more money".

Newman wrote that the United Nations "has applied mass psychology through a compliant media" (he really did write that) to fool the world into thinking  the activities of industrialised countries have changed the climate..

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/jan/07/maurice-newman-climate-change-denial-tony-abbott-roy-spencer

Gus: one would have to be blind like a newman bat... 2013 was the warmest year ever recorded in Australia. And 2014 and 2015 are on track to beat this record... I know it's early days for 2014 and 2015 is not even in the picture yet, except on the predictability charts. Mind you some clever idiots alla Newman might suggest that the present massive cold snap in the USA is a sign of things cooling down.... The scientific global warming models, of course, have already warned us of "extreme" weather extremes at both end of the thermometer — as the planet warms up steadily due to anthropogenic CO2. The cold spell in the US is probably the result of displaced North Pole climatic conditions under a global warming jet stream disturbed activity. If one studies the charts carefully, there is some "unusual" warmish air lingering at the north of Canada... Some of these resultant active conditions have crossed and more will carry on crossing the Atlantic, reaching Europe where there has been a bit of storm activities — activities that are increasing the damage bill: from flooding in England and France (Brittany) to huge waves on Portugal's coast... Let's not forget that a typhoon flattened a large part of the Philippines only a couple of months ago...

According to Gus, the next global weather instalments may prove quite devastating locally: Powerful spring tornadoes in the US, deep frost in Europe's spring followed by a scorching summer. In the US, the hurricane season — somehow quiet last year — may surprise a few people with devastating effects in the gulf of Mexico after a few months of hot drought and summer floods... May be may be not. But on the probability of global warming, the odds are in favour of increasing damage as mentioned...

GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL AND IS DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC CO2...

But the denialist idiots are winning the spruiking...

Below, as usual on most items regarding climate, we have the first silly comment posted on an article that did not even mention global warming at the Washington Post... The denialists want to pollute the debate...

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From the Washington Post

Protect your pipes: With temperatures expected to drop into the single digits, don’t forget to protect against frozen pipes. Expanding water in pipes can cause them to break. Pipes that are most likely to freeze are those exposed to severe cold, such as swimming pool lines and water sprinkler lines that are in basements, crawl spaces, garages or attics.

The latest: Get updates on the winter weather from Capital Weather Gang.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 COMMENTS:

The calibre of the first comment sets the silly tone for people like Maurice Newman... Excellent with arty-farty figures such as the stock market vagaries but totally ignoramus as far as scientific rigour is concerned... The other two comments explain clearly with sarcasm where the problem lies: religion and deliberate misleading ignoramustry of the ivdave... I guess, like I have discovered before, people like "ivdave" are "employed" by the denialist lobby to send erroneous information like shrapnel that the gullible uneducated unwashed out-there are prepared to believe since it suits their religious beliefs.

Ingrid Skjoldvear, of Young Friends of the Earth Norway, says they want the prime minister to stop Arctic drilling and focus on cutting emissions and achieving climate targets. The young people have their work cut out for them, as Norway's prosperity is based on oil revenue. And that's unlikely to change in the near future.

No future without oil?

Solberg makes no bones about the continuing importance of oil and gas drilling for Norway. Her goal is to make northern Norway an "innovative and stable region" and an "attractive place to live."

Like other high-profile politicians from Arctic nations speaking at the conference, Solberg talks of opportunities and of sustainable development. Fossil fuel extraction is an integral part of her policy to bring employment, education and an improved infrastructure to the region. This domestic policy priority is in line with growing international interest in the Arctic, said the conservative politician.

Climate change is having a dramatic impact on the Arctic. But while Solberg and her peers acknowledge the problems, the young people outside cannot expect any shift in fossil fuel policy. Around 13 percent of the world's remaining oil is thought to be in the Arctic. Minerals, including rare ores, are said to be there for the taking now that the ice is melting. Nina Jensen is head of World Wildlife Fund Norway, one of the few NGOs invited to speak at the conference. She feels that many Norwegians have a growing awareness of the paradox of hunting for Arctic oil as the ice "melts beneath our feet," threatening the fragile ecosystem.

read more: http://www.dw.de/melting-ice-a-hot-topic-at-arctic-conference/a-17378985

So much for the denialists...

Heat waves are becoming hotter, lasting longer and occurring more often. That is the assessment of the latest Climate Council report, which looks at data from a range of peer-reviewed literature and authoritative assessments.

After last year's "Angry Summer" of heat waves and bush fires, 2014 has started with more record-busting extreme heat, as well as more devastating bush fires in Victoria. In fact, hot days have doubled since the 1950s, according to data from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Read more about Abbott's immorality: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/southern-crossroads/2014/feb/21/extreme-heat-in-australia-more-longer-hotter

See clever toon at top...

Vast tracts of Australia's coastline have been denuded of large fish, withmarine life under pressure from climate change, over-fishing, pollution and invasive species, a year-long study has found.

The reef life survey, undertaken by volunteer divers along the entire Australian coastline, took in reefs up to 400 nautical miles out to sea, including remote areas not previously studied in detail. Starting and ending in Tasmania, researchers circumnavigated Australia, including a trip to areas of the Coral sea which have been set aside for a huge marine park.

Project co-founder Graham Edgar, of the University of Tasmania, told Guardian Australia the health of Australia's marine areas is decidedly mixed.

"We found very large areas of dead coral around the Montebello Islands, off northwest WA, which is a protected area," he said. "Previously, this area was very rich in coral but it looks like it has been impacted by heatwaves in that area.

"In the Coral sea, the fish life was good but the condition of the reefs themselves surprised me. I expected to see a lot more coral than there was, possibly because of the number of cyclones that have passed through there."

Edgar and his team took counts of creatures such as lobsters, sea urchins and clams, noting there were fewer larger fish than expected, particularly near urban areas and ports.

"For those very large fish and lobsters, you need to go to more remote locations and marine protected areas," he said. "In all it was a mixed bag – northwest WA is one of the best places in terms of large fish, for example, but the coral bleaching was bad there."

Edgar said climate change, fishing pressure and pollution all posed threats to marine life. Introduced species and native species that have extended their range, a process fuelled by warming oceans, are also challenges faced by biodiversity.

"Over the next 50 to 100 years, climate change is the grand-daddy threat, no doubt," Edgar said. "The east and west coasts of Australia have both seen an increase of water temperature, of around 1.5C in the last 50 years.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/21/large-fish-disappeared-from-australia-coast

Should this 1.5C be only "surface" temperature increase, we also know that most oceans have warmed up, down to about 700 metres below the surface... A lot of the heat "generated" by global warming is dispersed into the sea.

Some sceptics argue that the warmth of the air has nothing to do with the warming of sea as exchange of temperature between the two media is close to nil.

One can argue though that the air could be becoming "clearer" under global warming conditions thus letting more sunlight to warm the sea resulting in "more evaporation" leading to some cooling (by evaporation), leading to more water vapour in the atmosphere, thus more cooling cloudiness.

In turn the CO2 interference with water vapour warms it up and turns "cloudy" water vapour into clear "water vapour" by "warming it up" leading to more sun heating the sea surface. Winds under "warming conditions" have been measured to increase in intensity, leading to the surface warm water being dragged below the surface. Sea currents also participating in the process of water warming below the surface.

The repeat of these complex processes (here simplified above) between cooling and warming has a net gain of warming — even if we do not observe constant atmosphere warming. for the last 50 years has seen this increase along the coast of Australia (and most parts of the world) to be 1.5C, which is in line for a 4C increase by 2100. Beyond this, the climbing temperature won't stop. There is enough CO2 in the atmosphere to push temperatures beyond 9C increase beyond present temperatures. The process is slow in human life term. In geological terms this is a massive increase. 

As well, global warming has been "slowed down" by a quiet sun and La Nina event that usually would bring temperatures down but did not. It only slowed the increase...

Another prediction I will make here — after having been proven quite right for the weather in England (the wettest winter on record with storms galore which I predicted in October/November last year to last till now or till mid March)— is that Australia should see some strong heat-wave around mid-March till after the equinox. Like any weather bureau, I work on average and probabilities as well my own observation of rhythms in seasonal variations, plus the recent heat wave in southern Australia and the dicky monsoon in the north — all of which point to a build up of energy and an extension of tropical weather boundaries. I will be quite surprise if Sydney does not get a couple a days above 37C from mid-March onwards. 

Some people have complained to me about the oceans being cold at the Sydney beaches.... Let's say here that there seems to be a small counter-current from the south keeping the sea 20C cool right along the coast while the main ocean from about 20 miles offshore runs at near 24C. 

Meanwhile: