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toothless old clapped out 747...

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Former prime minister Paul Keating thinks Australia has lost its way in the region and is foolish to seek a new submarine deal to contain China’s military efforts.

In a scathing critique of Australia’s foreign and defence policy, the former Labor leader said the decision to work with the United States and United Kingdom on nuclear-powered submarines was “like throwing a handful of toothpicks at a mountain”.

He likened the deal – which came under the auspices of the new AUKUS pact – to “buying an old 747”, saying the most obvious choice would have been a French boat which used more modern technology.

 

Mr Keating, who led Australia between 1991 and 1996, warned the country had “lost its way” in the region and needed to acknowledge China’s pre-eminence.

“I am back to talk about what I see as a deterioration in our strategic setting,” he told the National Press Club on Wednesday.

“The country is now very much at odds with its geography and it has lost its way. We are still trying to find our security from Asia rather than in Asia.”

Mr Keating warned Australia could not afford to wait for US Virginia-class nuclear-propelled vessels that would be antiquated when they arrived in the 2040s or 50s.

“We’re going to have to rapidly rebuild the Collins class, the existing submarines, but also build another class of conventional Australian submarines,” he said.

“We ought to … go back to the French and say, ‘Let’s have another look at your modern low-enriched nuclear submarines’.”

Mr Keating argued China’s socio-economic assent had no modern precedent, and it was not seeking to overturn the world order but reform it.

“They are in the adolescent phase of their diplomacy.They have testosterone running everywhere, the Chinese,” he said.

 

“But we have to deal with them because their power will be so profound in this part of the world.”

The signing of the AUKUS deal further inflamed trade tensions with China, which has already rejected Australian coal, barely, beef, lobster, timber and wine imports.

Mr Keating wants to see the return of a “sensible” relationship with China and doesn’t think Australia should trouble itself too much with tensions involving Taiwan.

“Taiwan is not a vital Australian interest … we have no alliance with Taipei,” he said.

Mr Keating also maintained Australia should reserve the right to speak out on human rights concerns.

“You can speak powerfully about the rights of citizens in th[ese] countries, but that can’t be the whole conversation,” he said.

– AAP

 

Read more: https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/11/10/ex-pm-keating-urges-respect-china/

 

 

 

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not an apologist...

 

BY Stan Grant

 

When Paul Keating speaks it pays to listen, especially when he speaks about the world and our place in it.

As prime minister he helped build the political architecture to meet what would be the defining challenge of the 21st century: the rise of China.

Despite what some of his detractors may say, he is not an apologist for Chinese authoritarianism but a cold-eyed realist about Chinese power and how it can be incorporated into a global political order.

Simply: Chinese engagement but not Chinese dominance.

The Keating prime ministership though was a different time. China still applied Deng Xiaoping's dictum: hide your capabilities and bide your time. No longer.

China is today by some measures already the biggest economy in the world, it is fast-tracking a military build-up to match. Xi Jinping is hiding nothing and he believes time is on his side.

He is fond of saying the West is waning and the East is rising. He has cracked down at home and is expanding China's reach abroad. He has crushed democratic protest in Hong Kong, locked up Muslim Uighurs in what has been described as a genocide, has claimed and militarised the disputed islands of the South China Sea and is threatening war on Taiwan.

A rare speech at a critical time

Keating's appearance at the National Press Club — his first in 26 years — comes at a critical time.

Australia is in the crosshairs of this global power shift, the big power rivalry of China and the United States. The US now sees China as a strategic competitor and, along with Russia, the biggest geopolitical threat to America.

Australia has already paid a price, with Chinese bans on key exports and a diplomatic freeze. Australia's politicians cannot speak to their counterparts in Beijing.

In Keating's view Australia is failing this challenge. We are looking to old friends the US and the UK when the era of American dominance is done.

China, he believes, is too big to ostracise. Engagement with China, he argues, builds a better political framework for everyone.

Fundamentally, Keating says China seeks and deserves respect. Its rise to power, he argues, is entirely legitimate. Rather than usurp the global order, Keating believes China seeks to reform it.

He is right to point out that China has worked thus far within the institutions of the global order: member of the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization. China is a signatory to international covenants, it participates in global peace keeping, it is a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Indeed, the US-led post-World War II world has facilitated China's rise. The deep markets of the West allowed China to lift 700 million of its people out of poverty.

At a time when America under former president Donald Trump was being accused of retreating from the world and threatening its alliances, Xi Jinping talked himself up as a champion of globalisation and multilateralism.

The stakes are big, Australia's approach is wrong

Keating acknowledges China's abuses of human rights and the extremes of its authoritarianism but believes the stakes are too big to allow that to solely or even predominantly determine the West's relationship with China.

Keating has little time for the idea of old-style Cold War containment of China. He questions the value of the AUKUS alliance – Australia, UK and the US – and the Morrison government's decision to buy nuclear-powered submarines.

He argues it shifts Australia's posture from defence to attack. He believes the subs — when we do finally get them – will in any case be no match for China's weapons.

He is correct that with AUKUS we have alienated France, a genuine Pacific power. It has more troops stationed in this region than any country other than the US. Two million of its citizens live in the Pacific. France retains control of significant territory.

France has the seventh biggest economy in the world and the world's sixth biggest defence budget. If the aim of AUKUS is to curb Chinese ambition then that is weakened without France.

Keating identifies the limitations of the Quad – Australia, India, Japan, US. India and Japan pursue their own foreign policy and strategic objectives.

Notwithstanding historical and contemporary tensions, China is critical to both countries. India is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, it belongs to the BRICS group of countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

India is close to Russia, a country that has grown closer to China. India, Japan and Russia form their own trilateral grouping.

China has reshaped global power

Keating is correct to point out that the world is more complicated than the old Cold War divisions of the 20th century.

 

Read more: 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-11/paul-keating-press-club-china-australia-relationship/100609826

 

 

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