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Scott Morrison made three foolish and arrogant assumptions this week when he tried to push his controversial religious discrimination legislation through parliament.

As a result, he failed in the mission and emerged from Wednesday's all-night sitting with his authority diminished.

With time almost out before the election, this legislation — which he claimed was "very important" — has reached a dead end.

First, Morrison thought he could tactically outplay Anthony Albanese, wedging Labor on an electorally sensitive issue.

This smacked of hubris: It is safer to think your opponent just might be smarter than you are.

Second, he underestimated the spine of the moderates in his own party. He was not properly tapped into his backbench, especially those in the leafy suburbs who are under pressure from independent candidates.

The moderates have been acquiring a louder voice recently, which became obvious in last year's climate change debate.

Third, Morrison believed he could rush a complex issue — which he's had years to deal with — in the high-pressured dying days of the electoral term.

The "I am PM – therefore I can" principle doesn't always work in a close parliament.

This has been another political shambles for Morrison, already beset by bad polling, a crisis in aged care and leaked texts.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet — incidentally, a dedicated Catholic — had some prescient words on Wednesday as the federal government prepared to vote on the religious discrimination and associated legislation.

"I've made it very clear that I don't believe legislation in this space is necessary and I think it can end up creating more problems than it solves," Perrottet said.

As well as arguing it was needed, Morrison said he was committed to the legislation because he promised it before the last election.

In reality, he has been substantially driven by a quest to keep, or win, faith-based conservative voters, particularly in ethnic areas in Western Sydney.

Some Coalition sources believe these votes were an essential component in his 2019 victory.

Albanese desperately requires these votes too: Labor identified after the 2019 election that it had a problem with them, and he certainly can't afford to lose those already in the ALP's camp.

So, although many in Labor and its base didn't want a bar of the religious discrimination legislation — Bill Shorten told parliament "we will rue the day if this legislation passes the Senate" — the Opposition Leader wrangled a divided frontbench and caucus into supporting it, while pressing amendments.

The government's package included an amendment to the Sex Discrimination Act to prevent gay students being expelled from religious schools.

But that was narrower than an earlier undertaking that Morrison gave and it didn't cover transgender students.

The government said it wanted a report from the Law Reform Commission before acting on them, because of what it insisted were the complexities of religious schools dealing with transgender students.

Exclusion of transgender children turned out to be a serious flaw in the eyes of some in Liberal ranks.

Read more:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-11/religious-discrimination-morrison-backfired/100820422

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