Thursday 7th of July 2022

the view from russia…….

Kiev has so far lost 30 drones, 10 helicopters, four jets, three ships, and upwards of 50 troops in failed attempts to take Snake Island, the Russian Ministry of Defense has revealed. Urged on by British advisers, President Volodymyr Zelensky personally ordered the attack and wanted to see a victory by May 9, media reported citing security sources.

Another Bayraktar TB-2 strike drone, a Turkish import, was shot down over the island on Tuesday, said Major General Igor Konashenkov, the spokesman for the Russian military. That makes nine Bayraktars destroyed over Snake Island since Saturday, he pointed out.

 

READ MORE:

https://www.rt.com/russia/555268-snake-island-pr-military/

 

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The view from the Russian media critical of "not enough" Russian troops fighting the NAZIS....:

 

 

Why Ukraine moved from a dead defense to a counter-offensive

 

May 9, 2022

 

Today, when the entire post-Soviet Union is celebrating Victory Day, the collective West has de facto openly declared war on us, saying that it "will not allow Russia to win in Ukraine." Moreover, London is ready to help Kyiv with such offensive weapons that will allow Ukraine to recapture the independent territories already liberated from Nazi power. Buoyed by this support, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive.

 

 

The challenge has been thrown

 

As a result of the meeting of the so-called "Big Seven", the following statement was made:

 

"The G7 and Ukraine are united in this difficult time and in their desire to secure a democratic, prosperous future for this country. We remain united in our determination to prevent President Putin from winning his war against Ukraine."

 

The US, UK, Canada, France, Italy, Germany and Japan signed up to provide Ukraine with $24 billion in financial assistance, as well as undermine Moscow's ability to continue the military operation by imposing sanctions on Russian oil exports. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson went furthest:

 

"Ukraine needed to obtain weapons that would allow it not only to hold its territory, but also to win it back."

 

Since neither Kyiv, nor London, nor the entire collective of the West, recognises Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian, this is a Western declaration of war against Russia, so far in the “proxy” format. For now. Moreover, it was done on May 8, when Europe celebrates the day of victory over Nazi Germany, which adds a special cynicism to what is happening. What does it mean?

 

This means that the Kremlin will not be allowed to complete the special operation in Ukraine unilaterally in any case, even if our excessively “peace-loving [Russian] elites” try to limit themselves to liberation from the occupation of the territory of the DPR and LPR. 

 

At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already moved from a deaf defense to active counter-offensive operations, and, alas, they have achieved notable success in some areas.

 

 

Ukraine attacks

 

Yesterday’s major news came from the southwestern front. The remnants of the Ukrainian Navy, with the support of the Air Force, tried to recapture Snake Island by landing there. Recall that control over this strategically important island passed to Russia in the very first days after the start of the special operation. Ukrainian propaganda published fake news about how, during the “heroic” defense of the Snake Island all the border guards were killed in an unequal battle and received the title of Heroes posthumously. In fact, it turned out that only a [small explosion scared] the Ukrainian border guards, and after warning of being bombed, they prudently surrendered — and are now alive and well.

 

The same cannot be said of the Ukrainian special forces, whom Kyiv sent to Snake Island in a suicidal attack for the sake of media “posturing”. After the sinking of the Moskva cruiser, the strategic importance of the island for the Russian Navy increased dramatically. A surveillance radar was placed on it to control the airspace of Ukraine and Romania, as well as air defense systems. 

 

During an attempt in a night operation on Zmeinoye, three Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters with troops on board, a Stanislav assault boat were destroyed, one Su-27 fighter and three Su-24 VVSU bombers, three Bayraktar TB2 UAVs were shot down, as well as in the area Odessa, a corvette of the Ukrainian Navy (Project 1241) was sunk.

 

It is reported that Russian troops withdrew from the island in advance, essentially luring the Ukrainian special forces into a trap. However, this tactical success is small comfort considering that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already received American-made 155-mm howitzers M777 as military assistance, which with Excalibur shells are capable of finishing off Zmeiny directly, from the coast of the Odessa region. In addition, do not forget that the Ukrainian army is also armed with Soviet-made Tochka-U OTRKs — and Kyiv also received NATO-style long-range MLRS.

 

Most likely, Russian troops will have to retreat from Zmeinoye to avoid turning the confrontation into a constant exchange of manpower and military equipment. Maintaining control over Snake Isalnd would be useful if a land operation in the Northern Black Sea region is expected in the very foreseeable future.

 

In the meantime, the main forces of the Russian army are involved in the Donbass. Progress has been very slow for a number of reasons.

 

Firstly, over the past 8 years, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have turned the cities of the Donetsk and Luhansk agglomerations into full-fledged fortified areas.

 

Secondly, the Ukrainian military and national guards shamelessly hide behind their own fellow citizens, which is why the RF Armed Forces cannot fully use their advantage in heavy strike weapons and air power.

 

Thirdly, the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard are much better trained, organized and motivated than they were in 2014-2015, and their management and provision of all operational intelligence is actually carried out by NATO generals.

 

 

In these unfavorable conditions, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces had to rely on the tactics of slowly gnawing through the enemy's echeloned defenses, when its numerous positions are successively destroyed by artillery and then cleared. The liberation of Popasna after long and stubborn urban battles can be called a great success, which is the key to further progress and the formation of the first real “cauldron” in the LPR, where thousands of Ukrainian military may find themselves trapped. 

 

Due to such tactics, Russia’s own losses are minimized, and the end result is inevitable, but the operation to liberate the territory of Donbass will inevitably take a lot of time. This, alas, was able to take advantage of the enemy, who carried out a successful counter-offensive in the northern direction.

 

So, until recently Kharkov, one of the largest strategically important cities in Ukraine, was in a semi-encirclement. The Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred significant forces to it in order to divert the attention of our General Staff from the Donbass, and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, avoiding being surrounded, were forced to retreat almost to the very state border. Unfortunately, Kyiv was able to achieve an image “of success”. Why such things are even possible just a few dozen kilometers from Russia, where we have air supremacy, is completely incomprehensible. Experts reassure that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will themselves be forced to roll back from Kharkov to the west when their defenses in the Donbas collapse. This is indeed true, but the very tendency that the Russian Armed Forces have to retreat again is annoying, leaving, it would seem, already liberated settlements where a new “Bucha” may occur.

 

All this once again raises the question that the Russian military contingent involved in the special operation is not enough for effective actions in several directions at once, and Moscow should think about a partial mobilization. Russian soldiers operate in hostile territory against a numerically superior enemy. For a decisive defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will be needed to increase the number of Russian forces to 350-400 thousand military personnel. The entire collective West is already openly fighting against us, and it is impossible to delay the special operation, since the price of victory is only growing day by day…

 

https://topcor.ru/25561-pochemu-ukraina-ot-gluhoj-oborony-pereshla-k-kontrnastupleniju.html?yrwinfo=1652223230546798-14608232972741546995-vla1-4078-vla-l7-balancer-8080-BAL-1407

 

 

Translation by Gagarin Popovich

 

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gas transitation capers….

 

Ukraine’s gas network operator on Wednesday stopped the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through one of its key cross-border stations, citing “interference by the occupying [Russian] forces.” Here is what this development means for the European gas market and economy.

  1. What happened?
    Ukraine’s gas network operator, GTS Ukraine, announced late Tuesday that it would stop receiving Russian natural gas into the Sokhranovka gas metering station starting on Wednesday because it can no longer control the infrastructure in territory “occupied” by Russian troops. According to the statement of the company’s press service, “the occupying forces” interfered in the technological processes, jeopardizing the security of the country’s entire gas transportation system. The company said it views the situation as a force majeure, stating it is unable to provide deliveries to Europe for reasons beyond its control.
  2. How does this effect European gas supplies?
    They are declining. GTS Ukraine initially said it would temporarily transfer the Sokhranovka flows to its second, and largest, transit station – Sudzha, which is located on territory controlled by Kiev. Russian gas exporter Gazprom, however, later announced that it is technically impossible to do so. As the Sokhranovka station handles roughly a third of the Russian gas flows entering Ukraine for further transit, this amount of gas will be lost to European buyers as a result of the station’s closure. Gazprom said it was set to supply 72 million cubic meters of gas to Europe via Sudzha station on Wednesday, while the day before, the total confirmed applications of European consumers amounted to 95.8 million cubic meters. At their peak, applications from Europe reached 109.6 million cubic meters in early March. This means that Europe has just lost between 25% to 34% of its Russian gas deliveries.
  3. How does this effect gas prices?
    Gas prices in Europe initially surged after Ukraine’s cutoff, surpassing $1,100 per thousand cubic meters of gas early Wednesday. Experts say the situation will inevitably lead to a price hike, as European consumers assess the decrease in volumes. For instance, data from the company Snam, which transports gas to Italy, shows that the flow of Russian gas has indeed dropped compared to yesterday, while Germany’s regulator said Russian flows through Ukraine decreased by almost a quarter compared to Tuesday.
  4. What are the other consequences?
    Russia covers around 40% of Europe’s total natural gas needs. The EU relies on cheap Russian gas to heat homes, cook meals, and generate electricity in most of the bloc’s 27 member states. The drop in supplies could, in the worst-case scenario, lead to problems in the power grid, rolling blackouts, and shutdowns in industries. Increasing gas prices could also propel prices for other commodities and consumer goods, pushing already historically high inflation even higher. Inflation in nine EU nations has already reached over 10%. European consumers urgently need to find alternatives.
  5. What are the EU’s alternatives to Russian gas?
    European buyers could demand an increase in gas deliveries from Europe’s second-largest supplier, Norway. In 2021, the country supplied close to a quarter of gas in the EU and UK. However, Norwegian oil and gas fields are producing at nearly 100% capacity, and while the country did recently pledge to ramp up production in the summer, it is unlikely to make up for the loss of Russian supplies. Europe’s other option is to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US and the Middle East, but this commodity – and its transportation – comes at a much higher price than Russian gas. Also, there is a limit to how much LNG suppliers can produce and transport, and experts say the global liquefaction capacity is almost fully utilized. Plus, some EU countries have no access to LNG shipments as they are landlocked.
  6. Is there a way to fix the situation?
    Europe could come up with alternatives in the long run – for instance, it could finally grant the long awaited and currently blocked certification to Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which goes to Europe via the Baltic Sea and is capable of supplying nearly twice as much gas as the Sokhranovka transit station. Also, Kiev could reopen the station and not lose the money it receives from Russian gas transit. Finally, Kiev and Moscow could reach a peace deal – however, this outcome hinges on the participation of the US and EU, which at this point is unlikely.

 

 

READ MORE:

https://www.rt.com/business/555295-ukraine-block-russian-gas-explainer/

 

 

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