Wednesday 27th of November 2024
Home » Blogs » Gus Leonisky's blog

removing the liberal pricks out of a prickly diplomatic relationship…..

China and Australia's prickly diplomatic relationship has dominated foreign policy in recent years, with provocative rhetoric and public spats showing no signs of easing. 

Relations went into rapid decline after Beijing and Canberra clashed over several issues, resulting in a diplomatic stalemate and damaging tit-for-tat trade war.

Among the main disputes were Canberra's call for a probe into the origins of COVID-19, the decision to ban Huawei and accusations from Australia of Chinese political interference.

But a change in government has brought a sense of cautious optimism that tensions can be tempered. 

On Monday, China's government broke a more than two-year freeze on contact with Australian ministers, sending a congratulatory message to new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Premier Li Keqiang said the Chinese side was "ready to work with the Australian side to review the past, look into the future and uphold the principle of mutual respect".

Mr Albanese told reporters on Tuesday that he welcomed the Chinese Premier's letter, saying that Australia seeks good relations with all countries.

"I welcome all congratulations from all over the world. We will respond appropriately in time when I am back in Australia," he said.

But he also reiterated that "it's not Australia that has changed, China has changed", and called for Beijing to lift trade sanctions. 

Despite the warmer signals, Chinese analysts are only hopeful for modest improvements after years of what Beijing described as Australia's "anti-China crusade".

They say we can expect less "bombastic talk", a return of diplomacy, and more focus on regional relationships rather than just strengthening US ties. 

Similar stance, new approach 

In the lead-up to the election, former prime minister Scott Morrison accused Labor of being soft on China.

But Mr Albanese agreed with the Morrison government that China had changed since Labor was last in power in 2013 – the same year Xi Jinping became president.

 

"It's more forward-leaning, it's more aggressive," Mr Albanese said in a leaders' debate earlier this month.

"That means that Australia of course must respond."

Professor James Laurenceson from the UTS Australia-China Relations Institute said there was a possibility for an improved trajectory, but he doesn't expect a "reset".

Labor shared concerns about China's more assertive foreign policy behaviour that "sometimes skirts international rules and norms", but there would likely be a shift away from provocation, he said.

"Labor's approach for dealing with this challenge is different to the Morrison government's – less bombastic talk, more practical action, and more emphasis on non-hard power responses like diplomacy," Professor Laurenceson told the ABC.

 

Pichamon Yeophantong, a senior lecturer at UNSW Canberra, agreed that there would be a change in rhetoric that would be "less provocative, more restrained".

"However, I think there are still limitations regarding what extent a change in tone would help to address some of the more structural and fundamental issues that underlie tensions," Dr Yeophantong said. 

Conflict surrounding human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and provocations in the South China Sea are not going to go away, Professor Laurenceson said. 

But that doesn't mean the relationship can't improve. 

"There's plenty of countries around the world that express publicly their concerns about those issues … despite doing that, they still managed to maintain relations with China in a far better state than Australia's relationship with China currently is," he said.

Focus on non-competitive relationships  

Over the years, Australia has focused on strengthening relationships in the region that are firmly aligned with the United States and designed to compete with Beijing.

The Morrison government restarted the Quad security partnership with the US, India and Japan, which has long drawn both headlines and the ire of the Chinese government.

It then joined with the United Kingdom and the US to form the AUKUS agreement last year — a move widely seen as an attempt to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific.

"Those two initiatives were both set up through the lens of US-China strategic competition," Professor Laurenceson said.

"And by joining them, Australia made very clear its preference to maintain US primacy in the Asia-Pacific region.

"I think that's what's going to change under a Labor government … Labor is also more willing to engage with regional partners on their own terms and listen to their advice."

Dr Yeophantong said it was clear that the new government was unlikely to change its position on issues like support for AUKUS and the Quad, but hoped it would focus on engaging more widely with the region.

"So to look beyond the China issue, and to really focus on building up and rebuilding bilateral relationships and multilateral relationships with countries in this region," she said. 

 

READ MORE:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/china-australia-relations-foreign-policy-labor-win/101091996

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^!!!!

 

GusNote: Stan Grant is a senior fellow of the ASPI....

ASPI is NOT an independent think-tank...

 

tigers on a mountain…...

 

BY Petr Konovalov

 

As is well-known, the total length of the state border of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on land is 22,457 km. Of this length, 4,360 km is the border with Mongolia, 4,179 km is the border with Russia and 2,659 km is the border with India, making the three countries leaders in terms of the length of their land border with China.

However, other countries bordering the PRC, such as Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar, while being separate states, are part of a geographically separate space such as the Indochina peninsula, which then continues into the numerous islands with which it constitutes Southeast Asia (SEA). SEA is a huge region with a large population and diverse resources that is currently going through a period of rapid economic development. With a population and economic potential comparable to India and Russia, it can be seen as a separate and very important area of Chinese foreign policy.

For the PRC, SEA is both a supplier of natural resources and a large market for Chinese goods, services and technology, as well as access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the rugged Himalayan mountains and a China-unfriendly India. It is also an area of national security for the PRC, separating China from Indian and US naval units present in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Beijing therefore needs to increase its Chinese presence in SEA as much as possible, tie it up with all kinds of ties and ensure a strong and lasting Chinese influence in the region.

It should be noted that the influence of not only PRC but also its main geopolitical adversary, the US, is now quite large in SEA. US influence is so strong that some states in SEA have US military bases, which can be used by Washington as a means of protecting allies from various threats, as well as a means of controlling its allies.

For example, the US Navy and Air Force are present in Singapore. Singapore is one of the so-called “Asian Tigers”, one of the richest countries in the world in terms of GDP per capita and therefore among the most powerful states in SEA.

Singapore’s seeming wealth makes it a completely self-sufficient power, capable of solving all its problems with money. However, prosperity is impossible without security. Singapore has a well-trained and well-equipped army, yet its military might is not comparable to that of states like the PRC or the US, so globally, despite its wealth, Singapore is forced into the camp of one of these superpowers. The presence of US forces in the country suggests that for now, Singapore is in the US camp.

It should be recalled that one of the reasons for the economic development of the port city-state of Singapore is its geographical location on the coast of the Strait of Malacca. The Strait of Malacca is a strategically important maritime gateway between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, through which, according to various sources, between a quarter and half of all maritime traffic on Earth takes place. It is virtually all maritime traffic between Asia-Pacific and Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Therefore, the presence of US troops in Singapore gives the US a huge advantage in competition with the PRC for both regional and global dominance.

China’s economy is heavily dependent on supplying hydrocarbon fuels from the Middle East by sea through the Strait of Malacca. If the China-US conflict escalates, the US Navy and its allies could close the strait, depriving the PRC of a significant portion of its oil and gas imports and dealing a serious blow to the Chinese economy. It is therefore very important for Beijing to ensure Chinese influence in the Strait of Malacca area.

China’s leading method of increasing its influence in other countries is now economic cooperation, and the main instrument of Chinese foreign economic cooperation these days is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI is designed to link the planet’s most important transport routes, both land and sea, into a single system and to maximize the supply of Chinese goods to all possible destinations. One of the most important destinations for the BRI is Southeast Asia, including Singapore.

As far as Singapore is concerned, Beijing’s foreign economic policy is progressing well: the Celestial Empire has been the country’s main trading partner for many years. Singapore is actively engaged in the BRI project, under which it is developing the China-Singapore Land-Sea Trade Corridor with the PRC, combining sea, rail and road routes. The China-Singapore Corridor not only connects the PRC and Singapore: it is linked to a multitude of routes to different countries around the world. In the summer of 2021, the media reported that the Corridor had already connected 304 ports in different countries, with the commercial hub of the network being not Singapore, the world trade, logistics and financial center, but China’s Chongqing. In the first half of 2021 alone, 952 trainloads of goods were shipped from Chongqing, an increase of about 147% compared to the first half of 2020.

Other SEA countries are also pushing China into the region: for example, in December 2021 a railway linking the Chinese city of Yuxi with Vientiane, the capital of Laos, was inaugurated. Laos is a small, landlocked country and the launching of the railway was a major step for it in overcoming its isolation, which should have an impact on Laos’s economy in the coming years. Meanwhile, Laos is in the heart of Indochina, and the Yuxi-Vientiane road will be an important element of the railway system the PRC plans to cover the entire peninsula with.

Maintaining military bases is very expensive, whereas railways and ports not only pay for themselves, but also contribute to the development of the surrounding areas by bringing benefits, boosting trade and creating jobs. The US is now experiencing a severe economic crisis, and if it continues, Washington will have less and less money to maintain a military presence in SEA.

Of course, the time when the PRC can openly deploy its military bases in strategic locations in SEA is still a long way off. However, military and political power always begins with economic power. And China has already made considerable progress in economic cooperation with SEA: in addition to the aforementioned Singapore, the Celestial Empire is already a major trading partner for Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar, that is, four of the eleven states that make up SEA.

The US is the main trading partner for Cambodia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, also four countries in SEA. However, two of the four states (Cambodia and the Philippines) also had US bases on their territories until recently. Now the presence of US forces in Cambodia is in doubt: in December 2021, following sanctions imposed by Washington on several Cambodian dignitaries, Cambodian head Hun Sen announced the closure of the Ream naval base, which had previously been declared by Cambodia “open to all navies of the world,” for which reason the Americans were present there. The Ream base is known to already be of interest to Beijing. China is now Cambodia’s second largest trading partner after the United States, but it has invested heavily in the Cambodian economy. It is not out of the question that it will soon become the country’s main trading partner. And the “crowning achievement” of the long Chinese-Cambodian cooperation will be the transformation of the “open to all” Ream base into a PRC naval base.

If we compare the build-up of a power’s influence in other regions to the building of a pyramid, the creation of military bases there can be compared to a peak, while the base of the structure should be economic cooperation. Only then will the “pyramid” be strong and enduring. Apparently, Beijing is now “pouring concrete” all over Southeast Asia.

 

Petr Konovalov, a political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

 

READ MORE:

https://journal-neo.org/2022/05/20/economic-influence-as-the-basis-of-chinese-dominance-in-southeast-asia/

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

common sense….

 

Reasons To Doubt the Foreign Policy of The New Labor Government

 

By James O'Neill

 

The incoming Labor government ran a very cautious campaign. Their strongest policy seems to be that they were not the government and therefore offered a better choice than the deeply unpopular prime minister (especially with women voters) and offered a choice on that basis. It is certainly true that the Labor Party offered a vastly better option for women voters, both in terms of its policy options, and also in the number of high-quality female candidates on offer to the electorate. It is significant in this context that the majority of the successful independent candidates were also women.

In terms of foreign policy however, the two major parties are almost indistinguishable. The new prime minister Antony Albanese will leave the country on Monday with his foreign minister the Malaysian born ethnic Chinese Penny Wong. They are to attend the so-called Quad meeting in Japan where they will be meeting the prime ministers of Japan and India, as well as the president of the United States Joe Biden.

This grouping of four nations was set up to respond to the challenge of an increasingly assertive China on the world stage. The United States will undoubtedly be pushing at the meeting for a stronger response to the rise of China which the United States perceives as its major competitor for world dominance.

It is in many respects a curious amalgam of nations. For all four countries, China is the largest trading partner and to mount a military challenge to such a country is at the very least an odd policy option. India has other reasons not to pursue an anti-China policy. Both countries for example are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a body that promotes defence cooperation among its many members, as well as promoting a strengthening degree of economic co-operation.

 

Read more:

https://journal-neo.org/2022/05/24/reasons-to-doubt-the-foreign-policy-of-the-new-labor-government/

 

Yes, James but.... Since the Dismissal of Gough Whitlam, the US have been the Australia sugar daddy in terms of foreign policies.... As soon as Washington announced a new war, we have been like a yapping little dog being taken on a road trip — lapping it up. Our master are taking this Australian mutt to the vet to be neutered, and we wag our tail as if the road trip was worth our balls being cut off.... Was it? It is difficult to get these back. So bear with the Labor Party having to navigate some treacherous dangerous US watery diplomacy, including the South China Sea... One can see from time to time, betwen a couple of blank states of Joe Biden's teleprompter, some fleeting squint of the old deceitful Joe indicating that "he's got you by the balls..." and should you not play ball with him, he will cut your dick as well...

You know what I mean....

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW..... The Labor government should get something in return for this kind of loyalty, beyond some elusive subs..... This would be the start of "common sense".....