Sunday 25th of September 2022

humiliation, when the truth hurts…….

Macron says he doesn’t want to ‘annihilate’ Russia

While the French president has backed anti-Russia sanctions, he has refrained from the extreme rhetoric of his US and UK counterparts


Ukraine angry at French state media

Kiev claimed that AFP is spreading “Russian propaganda” by referring to Lugansk fighters as “Ukrainian separatists”

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko on Sunday accused France’s Agence France-Presse news agency of falling for “Russian propaganda” by calling forces of the Lugansk People’s Republic “Ukrainian separatists” rather than “Russia’s invading army.” Lugansk and Russian forces announced that they retook the city of Lisichansk on Sunday.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on Sunday that Russian and Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) troops had successfully driven Ukrainian forces out of the city of Lisichansk, which had remained under Ukrainian control since the LPR declared independence in 2014 following a pro-Western coup in Kiev.

Hours beforehand, AFP reported that “Ukraine separatists say they have encircled Lisichansk,”referring to the troops of the LPR, whose independence Russia recognized days before launching its military operation in Ukraine.

Nikolenko took issue with AFP’s description of the LPR’s forces. “AFP became a victim of Russian propaganda,” he tweeted. “It egregiously calls Russia’s invading army ‘Ukraine separatists’, presenting Russia’s war against Ukraine as an internal conflict – Kremlin is cheering.”


Despite Nikolenko’s indignation, LPR troops have been in conflict with Ukrainian forces off and on since 2014, eight years before Russia recognized the republic’s independence and sent its troops into Ukraine. 

Moscow stated that one of the reasons for its offensive on Ukraine was Kiev’s failure to abide by the Minsk agreements, which were designed to give Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The protocols, brokered by Germany and France, were first signed in 2014, and former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has since admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.”

According to AFP, Ukrainian officials denied on Saturday that Lisichansk had been encircled, and insisted that the Ukrainian army was still in control of the city. By Sunday afternoon, however, the Ukrainian general staff admitted that “after heavy fighting for Lisichansk, the defence forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw from their occupied positions and lines.”

Nikolenko has griped with Western media outlets before. Back in May he demanded that Reuters call the “Pro-Moscow Kherson region” of Ukraine the “Russian-occupied Kherson region,” and insisted that grain exports from the city should be called “stolen grain shipments,” despite Ukrainian and Russian officials disputing the status of the grain.






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extortion from the US "mafia"…..

The first problem with the EC study is that it expects the demand for gas in Europe in 2022 to remain the same as in 2021. Studies shows that the continent may need around 20-25 bcm more than in the same period last year. So, the target gas requirement is actually 121.5 – 126.5 bcm – not just replacing the Russian imports of 101.5 bcm.


Increasing non-Russian LNG

By far the most important metric here is the EU’s current regasification capacity. As mentioned above, when imported as LNG, the liquified gas needs to be regasified by specialized plants in ports in order to be reinjected into pipelines. All combined, the EU countries had around 74 bcm spare regasification capacity last year.

The problem is that about half this spare capacity is concentrated in Spain and Portugal, which are linked to the rest of the EU with a pipeline of just 7.5 bcm/year capacity. Therefore, the EU has insufficient re-gasification plants to import an additional 50 bcm of LNG.

The proposed solution is to use the UK (now, officially outside the EU) – which has around 29 bcm spare regasification capacity – as a land bridge to import LNG and then reexport it to the EU via pipelines. In this scenario, the EU may succeed in importing an extra 50 bcm of LNG.

But even if Europe overcomes the regasification obstacle, is there enough LNG supply in the world to cover the demand?


Switching dependency from Russia to the US 

Due to many export plants struggling with technical and feed gas issues during the year, global LNG export capacity actually declined in 2021, despite the continued rise in capacity in the US. At the beginning of 2022, it was estimated that the LNG global export capacity will increase by some 43 bcm if all plants that had technical issues and shutdowns were to come back online.

In the second quarter of this year, the International Energy Agency’s gas market report estimated that the EU’s LNG imports may increase by a maximum of 25 bcm and that 65 percent of this quantity will be supplied by the US.

If this transpires, US LNG exports will increase by a whopping 19 percent, making it the global leader of LNG exports overnight. Meanwhile, Africa, Europe, Central and South America and Eurasia will have smaller contributions to global LNG supply growth in 2022, while the supply of the Asia Pacific and West Asian regions are expected to decline.

If we take Qatar as an example, despite its leading role in LNG markets and close relations with western states, Qatar is unable to supply Europe with extra large quantities in the short term because it suffers from a lack of spare LNG export capacity. Furthermore, over 70 percent of these exports are sold to Asian buyers via long term contracts. Europe would have to wait until 2024-25 to be able to count on Qatari LNG supplies.

This high-level demand for LNG projected by Europe will saturate the market and increase the competition for flexible LNG cargoes. In order to attract more LNG cargoes, spot prices in Europe should be $2-3/MMBtu higher than the Asian markets. This is leveling now at $35/MMbtu for the rest of 2022 which is more than five times their five-year average.

The bottom line is that it will be impossible for the EU to increase their LNG imports by the crucial 50 bcm milestone. Even if the EU overcomes the technical issues represented by the regasification capacities and the interconnections between the EU countries and Britain, the supply in the global LNG market simply cannot meet the demand.

Although Europe may receive an extra 25 bcm of LNG, it will come attached to a very high price tag, while prices in North America will be largely unaffected. The US is the big winner in this scenario, raking in exorbitant profits while establishing itself as the world’s biggest LNG exporter.







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smelly germans…….

The German government’s austerity calls appear to have had an effect, the German tabloid Bild reported on Wednesday, citing the results of a poll conducted by INSA on behalf of the paper. The survey showed that almost two thirds of Germans have reduced their time in the shower in response to repeated government appeals to do so.  

According to INSA, a German research institute, 62% of respondents said they had reduced their shower time and are now showering less frequently than just a few weeks ago, while slightly more than a third (35%) reported no change in their habits. 

Those in the lowest income group reported a more significant change in behavior than any other income group, Bild said. Almost half of those polled (45%) also told INSA they had made some preparations ahead of a potentially severe winter, such as buying an emergency power generator or planning to do so. 







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