Concerns are growing that a serious incident could soon occur between the Australian Defence Force and the Chinese military as strategic tensions grow in the Indo-Pacific.

• An Australian vessel was recently closely tracked and challenged by the Chinese military
• Experts fear a miscalculation, rather than outright aggression, in the waters may trigger a serious incident
• Defence Minister Richard Marles says encounters with foreign militaries are not unexpected

The ABC has revealed HMAS Parramatta was recently closely tracked and challenged by the Chinese military while transiting through the contested waters of the South China Sea and East China Sea.

As details emerged of Australia's latest interaction with the People's Liberation Army (PLA), a US warship conducted a freedom-of-navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea on Wednesday by sailing within the 12-nautical-mile boundary imposed by Beijing on the Paracel Islands.

Australia is yet to conduct a US-style FONOP to challenge Chinese claimed territory and features in the South China Sea, but military observers believe the tempo of ADF activity in the region is high.

In May, a Chinese jet fighter intercepted an Australian surveillance aircraft in the South China Sea, first firing flares and then cutting in front of the P-8 Poseidon and releasing a bag of chaff.

Professor Don Rothwell — an international law expert at the Australian National University — warns the prospect of a miscalculation in the South China Sea involving Australia and China is growing.

"I think it's becoming increasingly difficult because it is clear that there is a pattern associated with Australia's activities now [that is] very much aligned with the way in which the United States conducts similar activities," Professor Rothwell told the ABC.

"Australia, to a degree, is isolated and, yes, the risk of miscalculation is one that is very live."

Professor Rothwell's concerns are backed by Nationals MP Darren Chester, a former minister for veterans' affairs and defence personnel.

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-14/possible-miscalculation-australian-military-in-south-china-sea/101236626

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