Last round of information from the [French] Scientific Council

Neither "testament" nor "feedback", this latest opinion piece is rather "a compilation" and draws three scenarios for the coming months. The Council will cease to exist with the end of the health emergency — that is to say: now.

By Delphine Roucaute

“It’s a kind of goodbye today.” From his office, behind his computer screen, the president of the scientific council, Jean-François Delfraissy, organised, Thursday, July 21, the last conference of this weird scientific entity which appeared at the beginning of the Covid-19 health crisis. In a communication exercise in which they have encountered Covid-19 during their “two years and four months of diligent work”, the members of the council present their last opinion. Neither "testament" nor "feedback", this 75th opinion published the day before is rather "a compass" for the months to come. A precious document of 62 pages, which synthesises more than two years of expertise and scientific monitoring.

See the graphics: Covid-19: the epidemic dashboard

First observation without surprise: the pandemic is not over. First in the very short term, since the seventh wave is receding but has not yet reached its peak in the hospital. But also in the medium term, since we can expect appearances of new variants. If the virus now circulating is endemic, the strengthening of population immunity gives hope for better protection against the most serious forms of the disease. “This background suggests that the impact of SARS-CoV-2 will gradually decrease, but does not predict an absence of short-term spikes in virus circulation,” the scientists write.

Read also: Article reserved for our Covid-19 subscribers: what results for the scientific council, on the occasion of its announced end?

In fact, three scenarios are emerging for the coming months. First hypothesis: epidemic waves will continue to follow one another as new sub-variants of Omicron appear, as was the case in France with BA.1, followed by BA.2, then BA.5. All with less hospital impact than for the previous variants. 

Second scenario: a new seasonal wave in autumn of the same BA.5 sub-variant or another genetically close one, for which we can hope for a “manageable” hospital impact. 

Finally, a less favourable scenario: the emergence of an “X variant” that defeats immunity, even more severe, with an unpredictable impact. "It's probably not the most risky scenario, but it's possible," commented virologist Bruno Lina. 

“Omicron-related deaths have passed into a form of oblivion”....

In this epidemiological context, experts are asking themselves the question of what “living with the virus” means in concrete terms, the strategy adopted since the appearance of Omicron, at the end of December. 

More contamination, but less clinical severity: the hospital system managed to absorb the shock once again. However, in the past five months, 25,000 people have died from Covid-19. A higher figure in absolute terms than in previous waves, but “which has not yet aroused a particularly strong reaction amongst the population” we see in this statement. The strategy of “living with” admits “more or less tacitly […] that a significant number of serious forms and deaths will be socially accepted, even expected, as long as economic and social life as well as individual freedoms are preserved” . 

This is a necessarily bias to the detriment of the most vulnerable, such as the immunocompromised people, the elderly and other precarious populations far from care. “The deaths linked to Omicron have passed into a form of memory loss, insists Mr. Delfraissy. We dared to put it in black and white so that society has given up or accepted the unfortunate.”

READ MORE:

https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2022/07/22/clap-de-fin-pour-le-conseil-scientifique_6135712_3244.html

Translation/adaptation by Jules Letambour

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