Monday 25th of November 2024
Home » Blogs » Gus Leonisky's blog

the next panic pandemic.....

This article explains how a new pandemic might occur, what it could be, and what measures might prevent such an event. First, to explain the issue, it’s useful to understand some key terminology:

An epidemic is an outbreak of a disease in a particular location.

A pandemic is an outbreak of a disease which spreads to and occurs in many different geographic areas at the same time.

Endemic diseases are established and circulating regularly in populations. Some endemic diseases such as influenza can have surges in transmission or have epidemics at certain times.

A pathogen is an organism which causes a disease to its host, including but not limited to viruses.

When could the next pandemic happen?

It is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur as they are random events. They can begin anywhere in the world where animals and humans are in close proximity as pandemics most often originate when a pathogen transfers from an animal in which it lives to a human never before infected with that pathogen.

When emergence in humans occurs, one of three outcomes are the result: the pathogen causes an illness in a single person, as with rabies; it causes a wider outbreak, such as the Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018 and 2020; or it causes a pandemic with the potential to become endemic, such as HIV.

The large influenza pandemic in 1918 is a major historical point of reference but there have been several less lethal influenza pandemics since then. Some experts call HIV a pandemic which has become endemic.

Infectious disease outbreaks are most likely to occur when a series of risk factors happen together. An El Niño weather event in 1998 caused flooding in Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Tanzania which meant cattle and humans were forced to live closer together on the remaining dry land. This increased the risk of cross-species pathogen transmission. Due to a shortage of vaccines, the cattle were unvaccinated against the Rift Valley Fever virus, a common infection among ruminant animals in the region.

The flooding created more breeding sites for mosquitoes, leading to a rapid increase in the mosquito population. Mosquitoes are one means of transmission of the Rift Valley Fever virus from animals to humans, and from human to human. This facilitated emergence of the virus in human populations which was then transmitted from human to human.

Alignment of all these risk factors resulted in a major outbreak of Rift Valley Fever among the region’s human population.

Where could the next outbreaks occur?

Efforts have been made to predict where pandemics may originate by identifying sites of emergence in the past, such as mapping all known emerging-infection incidents from the 1940s to the early 2000s and predicting that emergence would occur at one of those sites. But emergence is a random event both in time and place and mapping has not been a reliable predictor.

Influenza pandemics historically emerged in southern China so that area was the focus of attention as a possible source of new strains of the influenza virus. But the 2009 H1N1 ‘swine flu’ pandemic is thought to have originated in Mexico and/or the southern US rather than in China.

Even if there was a genetic-sequencing library of all organisms carried by wild animals linked to the animals in which they are found, such a database would be difficult to keep updated. At best, it could give an idea of the origin of a newly identified pathogen but scientists cannot predict an outbreak using such databases. A new pandemic could begin anywhere where there is close interaction of people and either domesticated or wild animals.

What could be the next pandemic?

There are a few known pathogens – either viruses or bacteria – that can cause pandemic- or epidemic-prone diseases.

Most influenza viruses originate in wild waterfowl. The H1N1 swine flu virus had its origins in bird populations thought to have then transferred infection to pigs where it mutated in such a way that it could transmit easily from human to human – once humans had been infected directly by pigs.

Respiratory infections represent one of the highest risks of an epidemic or pandemic after emergence and human-to-human spread, as infected humans often create aerosols when they cough, sneeze, or speak loudly.

Influenza

The influenza virus is an unstable virus which originates in wild waterfowl which transmit infection to domestic birds and poultry, and they then pass it on to animals and/or humans. Sometimes, the influenza virus mutates into a form which can spread easily in humans. In those circumstances a pandemic can occur.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, advance plans in most countries anticipated a pandemic strain of influenza virus. But countries in Asia which had experienced outbreaks of SARS coronavirus in 2003 tended also to take coronaviruses into consideration.

Coronavirus

There have been three outbreaks caused by coronaviruses in humans during the past 20 years. Each originated among wild animals and one of these viruses – SARS-CoV-2 – is the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In addition, there are four coronavirus strains that are endemic in humans, causing the common cold. These are thought to have emerged from animals at some time in the past. SARS-CoV-2 will most likely become the fifth endemic strain.

Ebola

Highly lethal infections with a short incubation period, such as the Ebola virus disease, are much less likely to become pandemic.

 

They cause severe illness early in infection that incapacitates and kills those infected, giving the virus little time to be transmitted to others.  

By contrast, HIV has a long period when it does not cause signs and symptoms but can transmit from human to human, making it well-adapted to becoming endemic.

SARS-CoV-2 has a relatively low level of mortality compared to the Ebola virus. In the future it is possible, but not predictable, that a more lethal coronavirus strain could emerge.

What role does climate change play in the next pandemic?

The leading causes of climate change can also increase the risk of pandemics occurring. Deforestation, urbanization, and the enormous livestock husbandry required for a growing meat-production industry all bring more and more animals into closer contact with humans. This in turn increases the likelihood of pathogens ‘jumping’ from animal to human.

It is generally accepted there will be another pandemic and that, through many of the same activities that fuel climate change, humans are giving pandemics more opportunities to occur.

That is why a ‘one health’ approach is so important – the animal health, human health, and environmental sectors must work together to rapidly detect and respond to pandemic risks.

Pandemic prevention and preparedness must be considered in the context of the ecosystem and animal health as much as in that of human health.

Only by maintaining a healthy environment and animal populations can we hope to protect and ensure the security of human health.

 

READ MORE:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/next-pandemic-when-could-it-be

 

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW....

 

no-one would dare....

NO-ONE, ESPECIALLY AMERICANS, WOULD DARE INVENT A NEW PANDEMIC — DESPITE THE NEED OF PANDEMICS AND OTHER DISEASES BEING NECESSARY TO THE SURVIVAL OF "BIG PHARMA".

NO.

PANDEMICS HAPPEN AS WE, HUMAN-GROWTH, DISTURB THE NATURAL LITTER OF THE PLANET. OF COURSE. WE ONLY MANUFACTURE ANTI-PANDEMIC GUNK....

 

The number of emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks has grown to several hundred per year since 2000. Recent diseases such as SARS, avian influenza, Ebola – and the enormous health, economic, and societal impacts of COVID-19 – have not yet solicited global unity on the importance of preventing pandemics rather than responding to outbreaks as they emerge. What will it take for world leaders, countries, organizations, and communities to understand that prevention is better than cure? The World Bank’s latest flagship report, "Putting Pandemics Behind Us: Investing in One Health to Reduce Risks of Emerging Infectious Diseases," is a clarion call for the universal adoption of an integrated approach to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals, and ecosystems. 

Download the Report>>

Risk Anywhere Is Risk Everywhere 

Human activity is the main driving force behind new, emerging, and re-emerging diseases. Most pathogens that are infectious to humans are zoonotic – in other words, they cross over from animals to people. 

As human societies extend their footprint and encroach on natural habitats, they disturb the ecological equilibrium, which results in the spillover of animal microbes into human populations. Growing demand for animal-sourced foods has increased the number of livestock on farms, creating more opportunities for crossover of pathogens. Every year, these diseases cause more than 1 billion human infections and 1 million deaths.

The pace of EID outbreaks has increased at an average annual rate of 6.7 percent from 1980 and is compounded by the global movement of goods and people, which enables local outbreaks to spread worldwide. Diseases know no boundary; the next pandemic may already be on the horizon.

Confluence of Nature and Neglect

COVID-19 sparked a global health, economic, and societal emergency unlike any other in recent history. It killed more than 6.3 million people as of June 2022, with true mortality being possibly three times higher and numbers continuing to rise. The IMF projected the cumulative output loss from the pandemic through to 2024 to be about $13.8 trillion. 

The business-as-usual approach to pandemics has been based on containment and control after a disease has emerged. Not only is this short-sighted, but it is also costly and reactive. Meanwhile, there is chronic underinvestment in disease prevention in many countries. And while many of the benefits of prevention accrue at the national and global levels, the costs tend to be borne locally for interventions such as reducing forest fragmentation and deforestation, monitoring wildlife health, and enhancing the biosecurity of livestock farms. 

Pandemic Prevention Is the Ultimate Investment for Humanity

Prevention is a global public good that requires an integrated, risk-based approach to prioritize spillover hot spots, ensure compliance with international health standards, and promote country ownership. The good news is that these investments are highly effective: actions to prevent disease outbreaks carry an estimated rate of return of up to 86 percent, and most of these actions will result in significant co-benefits. 

Putting Pandemics Behind Us: Investing in One Health to Reduce Risks of Emerging Infectious Diseases explores the One Health holistic investment framework that will help governments, international organizations, and donors direct financial resources to prevent pandemics. There is no one-size-fits-all solution and successful implementation will require a set of interventions that speaks to the national and local context.

One Health is an integrated approach that supports a wide range of sustainable development objectives with significant co-benefits in areas such as agriculture, food production, and environmental protection. For example, a One Health approach to prevention by reducing deforestation would generate ancillary benefits of $4.3 billion from lower carbon dioxide emissions. 

 Diseases know no boundary; the next pandemic may already be on the horizon.  

One Health for Our Future

Many activities that drive EIDs (such as the mining and extractive industries) also contribute to the economic output of a country, as measured by its gross domestic product. This makes it difficult to curtail such activities, particularly in high-risk regions that struggle with low growth and socio-economic disparity. 

Successful implementation of One Health will require improved coordination, communication, and collaboration between sectors, reinforced by capacity building. It requires a shift from largely vertical programs focused on specific diseases to those that can strengthen overall systems, including by engaging stakeholders beyond the health sector such as livestock keepers, park rangers, extractive industries, and communities responsible for environmental stewardship. 

The World Bank report comes on the back of growing consensus on the critical importance of One Health and prevention, and increasing momentum at global, regional, and national levels, especially in the wake of COVID-19. 

There is a strong economic case for One Health: the cost of prevention is moderate compared to the cost of managing and responding to pandemics. The World Bank’s global estimate of prevention costs guided by One Health principles ranges from $10.3 billion to $11.5 billion per year, compared to the cost of managing pandemics which, according to the recent estimate by the G20 Joint Finance and Health Taskforce, amounts to about $30.1 billion per year. There has never been a better time to adopt One Health as an investment in humanity’s future. The World Bank will continue to engage client governments, multilateral organizations, and other stakeholders to embed a One Health approach around the world.

 

READ MORE:

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/10/24/one-health-approach-can-prevent-the-next-pandemic

 

NOW THE QUESTION IS WHICH IS BETTER FOR THE PROFITS OF "BIG PHARMA". THE ANSWER IS SIMPLE: BOTH, MY FRIENDS... PILLS TO PREVENT AND PILLS TO MITIGATE (CURE)... THE MORE THREATS, THE BIGGER THE PROFITS. NO WONDER SOME SPECIES COULD "HATE US"....

 

Hi, this is Robert Scheer....

 

It is not an exaggeration to call the future of the planet an apocalyptic, extinction-bearing time, according to physician and anthropologist Dr. Warren Hern. Hern joins Scheer Intelligence host Robert Scheer this week to discuss his latest book, “Homo Ecophagus: A Deep Diagnosis to Save the Earth.” Apart from conducting decades of research in fertility and population trends based in the Peruvian Amazon, Hern has had his clinical and epidemiological research published widely in respected journals as well as had his public advocacy of reproductive rights appear in The New York Times, The Washington Post and other publications.

The book title stems from what Hern wants to call the human species now, “the man who devours the ecosystem.” It also means, “we are a super organism on the planet that has all the major characteristics of a malignant process.” Hern likens the human species to a cancer on the planet, a harsh yet realistic examination of the behaviors of humans and their impact on the biosphere.

The time in which we are living and the times ahead are considered extinction events for Hern, so much so that he has given a name to this age: “We are conducting what I call the Anthropocene extinction event, which will be the sixth extinction event that the world has experienced in the last half billion years,”. “We are not adapted to the heat levels that we are going to experience and that means a lot of other species are going to go extinct.”

 

READ MORE:

https://scheerpost.com/2023/01/06/dr-warren-hern-humans-are-a-metastasizing-cancer-terminating-life-on-the-planet/

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW....

 

opaque supplies.....

The EU's Special Commission on Covid-19 is in favor of banning Pfizer's access to the European Parliament. The potential application of this measure could be a response to the laboratory's lack of cooperation with the EU.

« The Covid Special Commission has just ruled in favor of a sanction against the pharmaceutical firm [Pfizer] by prohibiting it from accessing our premises. “, rejoiced on January 11 the French environmentalist MEP Michèle Rivasi.

 

Confirmed the same day by the news site Euractiv, this measure was in fact adopted on the proposal of the Greens group, which had invoked a lack of cooperation from the laboratory to explain itself on the contracts for the purchase of vaccines during the pandemic.

Still according to Euractiv, it is now up to the Conference of Committee Chairs (CPC) to deliver its opinion on this vote banning Pfizer representatives' access to the European Parliament. " The CPC […] can decide on the duration of the exclusion, to apply the sanction only to Albert Bourla or to all the representatives of Pfizer, or simply to continue to let Pfizer go to the European Parliament “explains the same source.

Opaque EU-Pfizer negotiations

As a reminder, at the end of 2020 the EU proceeded to the grouped purchase of vaccines from several pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer/BioNTech. " Problem, if the Pfizer contracts are available, they are redacted – and therefore unreadable », Explains EURACTIV again. In addition, the boss of the pharmaceutical group, Albert Bourla, recently refused on several occasions to meet the European parliamentarians of the special Covid (COVI) committee.

Neither the CEO of Pfizer nor the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, have ever agreed to share their exchanges in the context of the affair of the text messages they sent to each other during the negotiation of a contract. on the EU's massive purchase of vaccines from the American laboratory.

 

source: RT France

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW....

pigbatshit....

The southern Indian state of Kerala recently introduced emergency measures to combat an infectious respiratory disease transmitted by bats – although we’re not talking about Covid-19, but rather the Nipah virus. It was the fourth such outbreak in Kerala since 2018. On this occasion, the state contained the virus within days and limited the fatalities to two, demonstrating why it has one of the best healthcare systems in India.

The Nipah virus (NiV) infection, also called the Nipah virus encephalitis, is named after the Malaysian village of Kampung Sungai Nipah, where it was first found. It is a zoonotic disease that spreads from animals to humans. An outbreak of the virus in Malaysia in 1998 and 1999 started from infected pigs and resulted in 265 cases and 108 deaths. (According to a Kerala health department source, the pig is an intermediary host, transmitting the virus from bat to human.) The strain then spread to Singapore in 1999, leading to 11 infections and one death.

In Bangladesh, the virus has infected 237 people since 2001; 150 deaths were recorded prior to 2011, before cases gradually dropped to zero in 2016. This year, Bangladesh has recorded 11 infections, resulting in eight deaths. In India, the first Nipah outbreak was reported in the city of Siliguri in West Bengal in 2001, where there were 66 cases and 45 deaths.

The first case in Kerala was reported from the city of Kozhikode in the northern part of the state in May 2018. During that outbreak, 21 deaths were registered. Kerala likewise battled outbreaks in Kozhikode in 2019 and Ernakulam in 2021, before new cases appeared this year in Kozhikode.

 

https://www.rt.com/india/583515-bat-virus-asia-nipah/

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW....