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bypassing federal legislation banning nuclear power.....The federal Coalition’s dissenting report on a Senate inquiry into nuclear power claims that Australia’s “national security” would be put at risk by retaining federal legislation banning nuclear power and that the “decision to purchase nuclear submarines makes it imperative for Australia to drop its ban on nuclear energy.”
By Jim Green
The Senate Environment and Communications Legislation Committee released a report into nuclear power on August 11. The majority report, endorsed by Labor and Greens Senators, argued against nuclear power and against the repeal of Howard-era legislation banning nuclear power in Australia. A dissenting report by Coalition Senators argued for repeal of the legislation banning nuclear power. The majority report concludes that repeal of the legal ban “would create an unnecessary escalation of risk, particularly given Australia is able to utilise readily available firmed renewable technology to secure a reliable, affordable and clean energy system for Australia’s future”. The Coalition Senators put forward a suite of false and questionable claims in their dissenting report: that nuclear power is expanding worldwide; it is popular; it is important and perhaps essential to underpin the AUKUS nuclear submarines project; promoting low-carbon nuclear proves that the Coalition is serious about greenhouse emissions reductions; and renewables are unreliable and more expensive than nuclear. The Coalition has yet to state clearly that it will repeal laws banning nuclear power if elected, but it’s only a matter of time. The nuclear push has the full support of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. The Coalition’s economic illiteracy The Coalition Senators’ dissenting report makes a number of absurd economic claims. It cites Tony Irwin from the SMR Nuclear Technology company, who claims that the costs of nuclear and solar are “basically the same”. He bases his calculation on the assumption that a small modular reactor (SMR) would generate 13 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity per year. But reactors typically generate about 7.2 TWh per 1,000 megawatts (MW) of capacity, so a 300 MW reactor (the upper end of the range for SMRs) would generate about 2.2 TWh – nearly six times less than Irwin claims. Based on that nonsense, Irwin goes on to make the equally absurd claim that until legislation banning nuclear power is removed, “Australia’s power system will continue to be constrained at great cost to the economy.” SMR Nuclear Technology also fed economic nonsense to a federal parliamentary inquiry in 2019/20. As RenewEconomy editor Giles Parkinson noted, the company’s claim that 100 per cent renewables would cost four times more than replacing coal with nuclear was based on “Mickey-Mouse modelling” by a husband and wife team who used absurd figures for solar and wind and admitted to deliberately ignoring anticipated cost reductions. Of course there’s no need for Tony Irwin, SMR Nuclear Technology director (and coal baron) Trevor St Baker, or any other nuclear lobbyist to get their facts straight. As long as their claims fit the narrative, they will be parroted by the Coalition and by the Murdoch/Sky echo-chamber. Cost blowouts The dissenting report cites John Harries from the Australian Nuclear Association complaining that CSIRO GenCost reports aren’t “looking at the actual builds happening around the world at the moment.” Be careful what you wish for, John. Does the nuclear lobby really want to draw attention to the six- to twelve-fold cost blowouts in reactors under construction in the US, the UK and France, with the latest cost estimatesranging from A$25-30 billion per reactor? The dissenting report concludes that: “If nuclear is more expensive than alternatives, as the CSIRO and others claim, then legalising nuclear energy will not change anything because investors will choose to build the cheaper options.” However there isn’t a single reactor project in the world that isn’t propped up by state support and taxpayer subsidies. As for private-sector SMR projects, not one has reached the construction stage anywhere in the world — and perhaps none ever will. The 2015/16 South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission commissioned research on the economic potential of two SMR designs: Generation mPower and NuScale Power. Generation mPower was abandoned in 2017, and NuScale is struggling. Despite lavish US government subsidies, NuScale is struggling to secure private-sector finance to get the project off the ground and it still has licensing hurdles to clear. NuScale’s latest cost estimates indicate it has no hope of competing with renewables. NuScale estimates capital costs of A$14.4 billion for a 462 MW plant, with levelised costs estimated at A$138 per megawatt-hour. The Minerals Council of Australia states that SMRs won’t find a market unless they can produce power at a cost of A$60‒80 / MWh. NuScale’s history can be traced to the turn of the century but it hasn’t even begun construction of a single reactor. Likewise, Argentina’s SMR project can be traced back to the last millennium but it hasn’t completed construction of a single reactor. A dog whistle to climate denialists The Coalition Senators’ dissenting report claims that nuclear must be in the mix “if we are serious about the reduction of emissions to meet targets”. But the Coalition isn’t serious about reducing greenhouse emissions. They oppose the Labor government’s “reckless pursuit” of 82 per cent renewable power by 2030. They oppose the modest emissions reduction target of 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. They waved around a lump of coal in Parliament. They collaborate and conspire with the Minerals Council of Australia, who supplied the lump of coal and who made a global top 10 list of climate policy opponents in 2019. Promoting nuclear power doesn’t provide the Coalition with any cover or credibility. The Climate Council, comprising Australia’s leading climate scientists, speaks for those of us with a genuine interest in reducing greenhouse emissions. The Council issued a policy statement in 2019 concluding that nuclear power plants “are not appropriate for Australia — and probably never will be”. Economist Prof. John Quiggin notes that, in practice, support for nuclear power in Australia is support for coal. Prof. Quiggin has also described nuclear advocacy in Australia as a dog whistle to climate denialists: “Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s call for nuclear power, made as part of his Budget reply speech, should not be taken too seriously. … Dutton’s renewed call can best be understood as a dog whistle to the climate denialists who dominate the party’s base, allowing him to oppose practical measures for decarbonisation without explicitly embracing denialism.” Nuclear-powered submarines When announcing the AUKUS agreement in September 2021, then Prime Minister (and secret energy minister) Scott Morrison said: “Let me be clear: Australia is not seeking to establish … a civil nuclear capability.” Morrison also said that “a civil nuclear energy industry is not a requirement for us to go through the submarine programme.” However the Coalition Senators’ dissenting report claims that Australia’s “national security” would be put at risk by retaining federal legislation banning nuclear power and that the “decision to purchase nuclear submarines makes it imperative for Australia to drop its ban on nuclear energy.” They argue that even if nuclear power is more expensive than alternative energy sources, those costs are worth bearing “given how it could contribute to our national defence”. The Coalition Senators’ arguments are flimsy. The current configuration is for Australia to acquire second-hand US nuclear-powered submarines in a decade or so, with new submarines acquired roughly a decade later. The submarines wouldn’t require refuelling. Nuclear waste storage and disposal won’t be required for at least 20 years. Establishing a nuclear power industry to support the nuclear submarine project would be using a sledgehammer to crack a walnut. Further, if a nuclear power industry is necessary to support the submarine project, then countless billions of taxpayer dollars will be necessary to establish that industry — the decision won’t be left to energy marketplace investors as the Coalition Senators argue elsewhere in their dissenting report. The UK National Audit Office estimates that taxpayer subsidies for two reactors under construction at Hinkley Point — the only reactor construction project in the UK — could amount to £30 billion (A$58.6 billion).
https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-a-cover-for-the-coalitions-nuclear-power-agenda/
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awkward....
By Douglas McCarty
How ever did it come to this!
It is familiar to all that Scott Morrison, Prime Minister and Minister for Everything at the time, pulled the AUKUS rabbit out of his Akubra as a wedge issue for the forthcoming 2022 Federal Election. It appears that he did so with only a small inner circle in his own LNP knowing of the plan, not informing the National Security Council until shortly before its announcement and, against the expectation of the Biden administration, giving Anthony Albanese, then Opposition Leader, just 24 hours’ notice of this monumental shift in Australian Defence and Foreign policy. Previously, some semblance of a bi-partisan approach had been shown towards Australia’s Defence and place in the world, or at least some open discussion – so we citizens have been led to believe.
The next thing, a commitment to Morrison’s AUKUS (and high-end tax cuts) become part of the Federal ALP Election Policy – to avoid a ‘wedge’ on these issues, rather than try to confront the complexities and present to citizens/electors the arguments involved, during an election campaign, against the LNP and, of course, the baying hounds of the Murdoch press. Some might think that Democracy is based on the principle of each citizen carefully considering important issues confronting their society, then casting their vote according to their best judgement. But no issue, no discussion, no consideration. The electoral convenience may be undeniable, but responsible Democracy it ain’t! The electoral campaign geniuses who advised and decided on this policy to wrest political power from Morrison – “you can’t do anything unless you’re in government”- only succeeded in ushering Morrison into every Labor Caucus for the life of AUKUS….
We rank-and-file ALP members meekly accepted all this as an offensive but perhaps necessary electoral tactic and fulfilled our Election Campaign duties, because everyone wanted to get rid of Morrison. After all, AUKUS could be shunted off into an Inquiry and allowed to wither on the vine. Normal Parliamentary Operating Procedure. But, along with the High-Income Tax Cuts, these undemocratically decided policy changes became issues of parliamentary virtue signalling – implementing the Election Platform ‘promises’ that were ‘voted for’ despite the fact that there had been no discussion or evaluation of these issues for the electorate to consider prior to voting. They just came as part of the whole ALP package. Then came Albanese’s AUKUS 2.0. Bigger, more sweeping and bellicose, and with a price tag that rose from Morrison’s $170 billion to Albanese’s $368 billion – that’s $368,000,000,000. And out of nowhere! Within the ALP there was neither discussion nor democracy. Gradually, and thanks very much to contributors to Pearls & Irritations, the enormous implications of AUKUS 2.0 became known, not only to the whole of Australia, but for the first time to ALP rank-and-file members too. No argument of ‘supporting the leadership’ and ‘staying in power’ or ‘virtue signalling on electoral integrity’ could justify support for such appalling policy and its subservience to the American imperial world view. So many of us hoped for a better world, a more peaceful world – at least for us in the Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere.
What happens in the ALP National Conference will reflect the power and promotion structures of the Left and Right Factions, not the sentiments of the ALP rank-and-file. The Factions may have once fostered policy development and adoption while avoiding terminal internal conflict. But today they have become primarily parallel career promotion structures for aspirants to Party office, Advisor jobs, or safe Parliamentary seats – at least for those who show sufficient loyalty to the Faction. And through that ‘loyalty’, the Factions have become instruments of top-down control – if you value your career prospects. There may be some managed debate at Conference, but deals will be done, trade-offs found, Unions assuaged – and voting discipline enforced. But whatever good social initiatives may be adopted, from Housing to Climate Change, their cost will have to compete with the AUKUS spending. In ALP Caucus or Cabinet, Morrison will be silently present, thanks to his wedge politics, the pathetic electoral timidity of Federal Labor and, unbelievably, Albanese’s expansion to AUKUS 2.0.
While the hope of many of us, inside the ALP and beyond, is that ‘it will never happen’ (at least in regard to the nuclear-powered submarines), inter-operability with and integration into the American war-making enterprise is already with us. So we cannot just stand and hope, we MUST push back. It may begin at the National Conference, but it MUST continue beyond – if we wish to see the vision of what our nation and our world could be!
Otherwise, we’ll just be left trying to decide on the names of the submarines – HMAS Albatross is already taken; ‘Canberra’ has been taken by a ‘Star-Spangled Kangaroo’ of the US Navy; perhaps HMAS Scorpion, after the nuclear-powered US submarine that did so much good work in Nevil Shute’s ‘On the Beach’….
https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-and-the-star-spangled-kangaroo/
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coitused....
By John Brennan
For the first time since the US achieved global domination economically and militarily after WWII, the military industrial complex and Biden administration fear the rise of China. They have decided that it must be crushed. The US, NATO and its compliant states have whipped up a frenzy of fear and loathing for the Chinese. This has resulted in trillions of dollars in a global rearmament on a colossal scale. The Australian government, without the approval of parliament or the people have handed over sovereignty to the US to operate their war from its bases in states all around the country. The first nation to be “captured” by “the Rulers of the World” is Australia.
By accident or design the making of the movie “Oppenheimer” comes at a time when the world is again in a state of “minutes to midnight on the Doomsday Clock”.
With the prospect of WWIII over America and NATO’s proxy war with Ukraine, Putin’s threats of “tactical” nuclear war, Biden’s paranoia over China and his often repeated statement “to defend Taiwan no matter what it takes”, the widespread wars in Africa not to mention the recent US CIA-staged coup in Peru….Nothing has been learned over the decades since the Cuban Missile Crisis, Ronald Reagan’s Star Wars with the outcome of “MAD”( mutually assured destruction) and the recent insane statement by the US Department of Defence, after 3 decades of inactivity, that “new” nuclear bombs are to be designed and built.
For the first time since the US achieved global domination economically and militarily after WWII, the MIC (military industrial complex) and Biden administration fear the rise of China. They have decided that it must be crushed. The US, NATO and its compliant states have whipped up a frenzy of fear and loathing for the Chinese. This has resulted in trillions of dollars in a global rearmament on a colossal scale. The Australian government, without the approval of parliament or the people have handed over sovereignty to the US to operate their war from its bases in states all around the country. The first nation to be “captured” by “the Rulers of the World” is Australia.
It is important to return to the story of Oppenheimer as it portends of what is to come. History is always written by the victors so the US Department of Defence, having worked with Hollywood filmmakers for nearly 100 years, have been able to give their input. As the Chief of Public Affairs of the DoD’s Film Liaison Department says “the goal is two-fold to accurately depict military stories and make sure sensitive information is not disclosed”. The blockbuster movie is in the same mold of its predecessors like Midway, Top Gun and the other endless war pics. What’s taken out and what’s left in is the problem.
When Einstein and others tipped off the US President that the Germans were suspected of developing an atomic bomb, the Administration and the DoD put together a team of hundreds of scientists and others to design and build a bomb under the management and direction of the Army. Issues like moral and ethical matters, safety and precautionary measures, exposure of military persons and other issues were overlooked. Several scientists refused to participate in what became known as the Trinity test. The DoD recruited a compliant, ambitious university professor J.R.Oppenheimer, called “the Father of the Atomic Bomb”, but not the inventor, to conduct the test. The explosion took place at Los Alamos and was observed in 3 separate locations each about 10kms away. Some observers had no eye or hearing protection and those downwind of the blast were exposed to fallout. The “Downwinders” as they were later called in the fallout areas many kilometres away in the towns, villages and farmlands bore the brunt of the radiation. A year after the detonation, infant mortality’s skyrocketed and cancers began to emerge. The Administration denied all responsibility. Only in the past month the US Congress voted in favour of granting compensation to the “Downwinders” and others irradiated in the over 1000 atomic tests undertaken in the Mississippi, the Nevada desert and the Pacific islanders on Guam.
The movie leaves out the obliteration of Nagasaki and Hiroshima of which there is extensive footage. Over 220,000 civilians were massacred. These “trial” sites were chosen specifically by the DoD because they had not been bombed or damaged in the war. These sites were thus able to provide detailed, measurable evidence of the effects of the two unique bombs.
The “Lie” left in the movie was that the bombs brought an early end to the war. What was not told was that Stalin had stated Russia’s invasion of Japan was ready, that Japan was losing ground in China which it had failed to conquer, that the Japanese airforce and navy had already been destroyed by the US Fleet in the Pacific and on the mainland during bombing raids. It was not only the Japanese home bases wiped out, 76 of Japan’s largest cities were firebombed by the US using weapons banned under the Geneva Convention – Napalm (burns at 800 to 1200C) and Phosphorus (1000 to 2500C). Millions of wooden homes burned leaving unaccounted numbers of civilians homeless and without food, water and medical assistance. In one night raid on Tokyo, 100,000 civilians died and countless were left maimed.
Even the Allies condemned the unnecessary bombing. Winston Churchill said “it was a mistake to suppose the fall of Japan was settled by the bomb. Her defeat was certain before the first bomb fell”. President Truman’s Chief of Staff, Admiral William Leahy, said that “Japan had already been defeated” and J.K.Galbraith, the US Official Investigator of the War said that he discovered that a decision to end the war agreed to by the Emperor was made by the Supreme Direction Council on June 20, 1945.
The unstated message of the film is that the development and use of the nuclear weapons led to the beginning of America’s “Rule of International Order” and the forever likelihood of the end of civilisation.
https://johnmenadue.com/oppenheimer-and-the-forever-wars-have-we-learnt-nothing/
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SEE ALSO: https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-tensions-surface-at-labors-national-conference-as-albaneses-ambitions-for-the-party-become-clear/
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aukus bill.....
At this week’s Labor Conference Defence Minister Richard Marles distributed a 32 paragraph statement for insertion into the ALP National Platform to explain the Albanese’s Government’s rationale for an incredible $368B of public expenditure on submarines. At $11.5B per paragraph, one can be left very disappointed in his words. Rex Patrick provides readers with a hard hitting paragraph-by-paragraph analysis that reveals a massive swindle.
A peaceful and secure region
Labor is no stranger to hypocrisy when it comes to international affairs. To take but one example, West Papua is neither “peaceful, stable or prosperous”. Slow motion genocide is taking place there. Indonesia has engaged in shocking abuses of indigenous Papuans, including child killings, disappearances, torture and mass displacement of people. Hundreds of thousands of West Papuans have died in a struggle to be free of Indonesian rule.
Since becoming Defence Minister, Marles has sat down and met with his Indonesia counterpart, Prabowo Subianto on three occasions.
In the early 1990s, as the commander of Kopassus Group 3, Prabowo commanded Indonesian special forces and militias that were responsible for murder, torture and other human rights abuses in East Timor. In 1996 he led Indonesian forces in bloody reprisal actions against West Papua separatists.
In 1998 troops under Prabowo’s command kidnapped and tortured democracy activists and the General was implicated orchestrating mob violence in Jakarta against Indonesians of Chinese descent. He was banned from entry into the United States on account of his human rights abuses.
It appears some breaches of “agreed rules, standards and laws” that Marles talks about are subject to ‘looking the other way’, as is convenient.
The truth is that Australia’s international development program is a drop in the budget bucket when compared to the $368B being spent on AUKUS submarines, and which goes to UK and US defence contractors.
In 1984 New Zealand’s Labour Prime Minister David Lange banned nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed ships from using New Zealand ports or entering New Zealand waters. Lange’s decision was widely seen as marking a milestone in New Zealand’s development as a nation and an important act of sovereignty and self-determination.
Australian Labor wasn’t quite so inclined. Labor Leader Bill Hayden’s declaration that nuclear-powered and nuclear armed ships would not be welcome in Australian ports never came to fruition. Instead, the Hawke Labor Government ensured that the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone was watered down and that US nuclear-armed ships could continue to visit Australian ports. Labor’s leadership has now moved to ownership of nuclear-powered ships.
Securing Australia’s Sovereignty
All six Collins Class submarines were built in Australia. We own the intellectual property for the Collins submarines and we conduct 92% of the sustainment work here in Australia.
With AUKUS, we abandon that sovereign capability and self-reliance, buying out first three submarines from the US. We go from being builders and sustainers, to buyers and roadside assistance.
We are putting all of our Defence capability eggs in one basket, with a long term, bank breaking, monolithic program to get to the point where, at some stage in the late 2050’s, we’ll be able to keep just three submarines available for use at any time – in the context of China, Paul Keating describes this as “throwing toothpicks at the mountain”.
We have gone from hosting the Pine Gap intelligence collecting facility near Alice Springs, the submarine communication station at North West Cape and participation in the Five Eye intelligence network to hosting US Marines and their helicopters in Darwin, B-52s from Katherine, US and UK submarines from Perth, U.S. Navy Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft from Australian air bases, pre-positioning of US Army stores and material in Victoria with a plan to establish a US Logistics Support Area in Queensland.
We’re seeing more US capability turning up on our shores. When the US engages in a conflict in the regions, we’ll have no choice but to be involved. Even if we were to refuse direct involvement, we’ll have capabilities and facilities here that will be involved in supporting US operations and they will be of (targeting) interest to the opposing side. The Joint Defence Facility Pine Gap will be intimately involved in providing intelligence to support US operations across the Pacific and Asia, including operations which will be staged from Australia.
But our forces will be directly involved, anyway. The integration and interchange marriage that’s being aggressively pursued will demand it.
Australia’s Defence partnerships isn’t anchored in Australian sovereignty, as Marles claims, it’s anchored to the US.
Instead of focussing on ensuring Australia has the sovereign capabilities to defend ourselves and ensure we can make our own decisions about war and peace, our Government and the ADF leadership have chosen to go ‘all the way’ with the USA.
Instead of ensuring our equipment can communicate and work alongside the US’s and other’s equipment, we’ve embarked on a course of total integration into the US Armed Forces. We’ve surrendered interoperability choice to integration and interchangeability (identical equipment) in the context of US controlled operations.
The AUKUS submarine project is not about the long standing national security bedrock strategy of ‘Defence of Australia’. It’s about dovetailing the ADF into US strategy to fight a war against China in North Asia. It isn’t about defending Australian trade, it’s about acquiring the ability to strike at targets in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea and along China’s coast.
Australia will make our sovereign decisions within an alliance framework in which we are the minor dependent partner. When it comes to decisions about war and peace in the Pacific, Washington will act according to its global interests and its increasingly erratic and confused domestic political situation. AUKUS has handcuffed Australia to US strategy at a time when the US is less reliable as a partner than it has been at any time over the past eight decades.
Each and every pawn on a chess board sits alone and acts singularly, but always under the direction of the chess player. Australia’s pawns will ultimately be directed by US decision-makers.
The idea that an Australian Government would be neutral in a conflict between the US and China over Taiwan won’t be given any serious consideration. Kim Beazley made that clear in confidential talks with the US years ago. In 2006 the then Labor leader privately told the US Embassy that “In the event of a war between the United States and China, Australia would have absolutely no alternative but to line up militarily beside the U.S. … Otherwise, the alliance would be effectively dead and buried, something Australia could never afford to see happen.”
The private thinking of Labor’s leadership is no different today, and through their embrace of AUKUS they have tightened the ties that bind immeasurably. If war comes, the only question will be how much of our still very small Defence Force will we directly commit to a high intensity conflict
Opportunities for Australian workers
There’s been a big pitch on this to get Labor’s union base onside with AUKUS. However, while Marles talks big, the Government has given very few details. The Department of Defence is refusing to release its workplace study under FOI.
Past experience shows that Defence Department projections of Australian industry/jobs benefits are always over promised and under delivered.
What we do know is that the first thing the Government is doing is throwing $3 billion to boost US and UK shipbuilding and jobs. There are already a lot of smiling faces at General Dynamics Electric Boat at Groton, Connecticut and BAE Systems Submarines at Barrow-in-Furness.
The UK Secretary of State for Defence has trumpeting in the House of Commons that BAE is recruiting for 11,000 to 17,000 jobs in Barrow — largely on the Australian coin.
The US and the UK will be experiencing the benefits of Australian AUKUS funding well before any job creation at Osborne in South Australia.
And that $3 billion will be just the beginning. US submarine builders will soak that up like a sponge and the US will be asking for more to keep their programs on track as a condition for selling us three second-hand Virginia class subs at full market price. So, we’ll be paying a big markup.
AUKUS is a huge pot of gold for Defence contractors, consultants and highly paid Defence executives. Marles has done nothing to clear out the Defence crew that has delivered decades of procurement disasters. Things won’t change because of a sentence written in the Labor Platform.
In 2001 Australia entered into a joint submarine Combat System development program with the United States. On Sept 5, 2003 United States Navy Captain David Veatch, Program Manager Submarine Combat Systems, visited Australia to brief Australian industry on a bright joint development program.
US Navy Presentation to Australian Industry 2003
Australia has since spent billions of dollars on the ‘joint’ program and not a single Australian company has got a product on US submarines.
The nuclear and associated technology used in the AUKUS submarines is the intellectual property of the US and the knowledge associated with it will be locked down for use in the submarine program only. It will bring no benefit to Australia beyond the submarine capability itself. The idea that Australia will get a lot of high tech spin-offs is at best wishful thinking, and in reality, is a fraud on taxpayers.
Prior to AUKUS, we were to build 12 conventional submarines in Australia with construction commencing in Q3 2023. We will now buy at least three submarines from the US, more likely five. Whilst the plan is to then switch to a UK AUKUS designed submarines, cost and risk will likely see us continue buying US submarines. This is a trackway to ever deeper strategic and industrial dependence on the United States.
The Government has refused to release the workforce studies it has prepared. Their argument for withholding the information is that it’s only a draft. Defence does not know what the numbers are, or at best, are unwilling to have them scrutinised.
See response to paragraph 18. The lack of transparency calls into question all these big claims about job creation, and shield’s Defence and the Government from accountability, now and into the distant future.
There will no doubt be submarine maintenance carried out in Australia.
It is highly unlikely that Australian companies will get any products inside the already fully designed and deployed Virginia Class submarines and, if the Hunter Class Frigate is anything to go by, Australian companies will be quite unsuccessful in the AUKUS submarine design too. Like the Hunter class, we might get to supply the flag pole.
Contributors to the Hunter Class Frigates
Nuclear Safety and Stewardship
One would hope this is true because anything less would be a violation of our Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty commitments.
This is at best disingenuous. Labor has no forward disarmament or non-proliferation agenda. Labor’s national conference commitment to sign the Nuclear Weapons Prohibition
Treaty was written with so many caveats as to always be a dead letter and it’s well and truly moribund now in the context of AUKUS. And there’s nothing else – there are no multilateral disarmament or non-proliferation negotiations underway, and Australia isn’t doing anything to advance the cause.
Meanwhile the prospect of a new nuclear arms race is looming as China massively expands their missile arsenal. Labor has nothing to say about that development which dwarfs the supposed AUKUS contribution to deterrence.
Whilst this goal is accepted, the de-facto Perth home porting of US and UK nuclear submarines in the short terms, and the ultimate stationing of Australian nuclear submarines in our own ports must invariably increase the risk of an accident.
Embarrassingly the Morrison Government and then the Albanese Government have committed to build nuclear submarines at a location – Port Adelaide – that has never been approved for visits by nuclear powered warships. It will be a bit awkward if new safety assessments indicate that location is unsuitable for visits, let alone maintenance with nuclear submarines out of the water on hardstands.
This is a binding Non-Proliferation Treaty obligation, but it is interesting that the Government is having to spend a great deal of diplomatic energy trying to reassure our neighbours about this. Defending AUKUS is a diplomatic task that will continue for decades and stifle any efforts to revive Australia’s past nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation activism.
There is a bit of Animal Farm playing out here; nuclear plants on land – bad, nuclear plants on water – good.
The “independent” safety regulator sits within the Defence Department and will operate with a high degree of secrecy. It will never be truly independent. This was against the advice of Australian nuclear safety experts who emphasised the need for true independence and transparency, but it appears to be a compromise to accommodate US/UK security requirements.
Despite four decades of effort, Australia still hasn’t selected a site for a national low level radioactive waste repository. A high level waste repository is an even more difficult project – technically and politically. Albanese, Marles and other current decision makers will likely be long retired before this aspect of AUKUS is sorted out.
Even if the issue is solved, AUKUS radioactive legacy will linger for thousands of years.
The words in this paragraph are completely divorced from the reality of questions that have not been answered in the Senate and FOI’s which have been refused in full.
Governance and oversight
So many past Defence projects were “on time and on budget”, until their cancellation was announced.
No-one can realistically imagine that Defence will ever admit to any slippage in schedules or blowouts in cost – at least not until they’ve redefined everything to try to keep themselves looking good.
Defence secrecy has already inhibited scrutiny of repeated massive procurement failures. Defence “updates” are likely to be riddled with wishful thinking and convenient omissions.
That’s their track record. The Labor Government has no plans to reform the Defence establishment. They only have plans to throw hundreds of billions at it.
Parliamentary Committees with Government majorities will never apply effective scrutiny, and the Senate never exercises its power to insist on the production of information that
Defence refuses to provide. Parliamentary scrutiny of defence and national security is largely ineffective.
Only highly enriched uranium reactors can deliver the power density necessary deliver the high speeds that the US and UK want in their submarines. Only highly enriched uranium has the capacity to deliver reactors which do not need to be refuelled half way through the life of the submarine.
“An appropriate time” is unlikely to be in the life of the current Parliament, or the next, or
the one after that. Anthony Albanese will most likely be long retired before this gets sorted out and Australia will be paying for this long after he’s departed the scene.
And that’s the essence of a great swindle. The political tricksters will be long gone before the full bill is paid.
https://michaelwest.com.au/marles-mauled-rex-patrick-demolishes-defence-sophistry-on-aukus-submarines-nuclear/
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SEE ALSO: https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-tensions-surface-at-labors-national-conference-as-albaneses-ambitions-for-the-party-become-clear/
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