The island’s current political status is as good as it gets, and any further military partnership with Washington will deliver only diminishing returns.

Say what you like about Taiwan’s new leader William Lai Ching-te, but he really did ask for it. Days after his inauguration, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted live drills around the island over several days.

It’s not the first time mainland China conducted a full encirclement exercise. After former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s pointless visit to Taiwan in 2022 that was nothing but posturing and provocation, the PLA carried out full encirclement drills.

Lai’s incendiary inauguration speech likewise provoked a nasty response from the mainland.

I am not the only one criticising Lai’s speech. Even the Financial Times, which is usually pro-Taipei to a tee, admits it was a bit too provocative. Headlined “China has a point about Taiwan’s leader”, its respected Greater China correspondent wrote that “Lai’s language on sovereignty has already strayed from the path taken by his more cautious predecessor”.

If he made such a declaration on his first official day in office, what is he planning to do for the rest of his term? No wonder he said people should not entertain “delusions” about cross-strait peace.

It takes quite a bit of recklessness for Lai to make his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, look “cautious”. He did so by calling the island “a nation” with “sovereignty” at his inauguration.

Lai and others have used similar language, but almost always in less formal occasions, and certainly not at Tsai’s two inaugurations or in high-profile official diplomatic settings.

The PLA drills this time were arguably even more intense and threatening than those in 2022. This is despite it only having targeted five zones around the Taiwanese island as compared to seven. One reason is simply that the zones covered much bigger areas this time.

The PLA and mainland state media have helpfully provided maps of the two different sets of drills for easy comparison.

This time, all the targeted zones were well within Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, a kind of gentlemanly respectful practice that asks foreign aircraft to notify their presence when entering the zone.

Two of the zones in the Taiwan Strait crossed the so-called “median line” deeply towards the island. The median line, which the mainland clearly no longer respects, used to be an informal demarcation for the two sides to avoid provoking each other within the strait.

One large zone covered the north, northwest and west of Taipei, the island’s capital city, as opposed to only the city’s north as was the case last time.

If there is any consolation for Lai, perhaps it was that none of the zones targeted by the PLA this time intruded into Taiwan’s territorial waters while last time, three of them did.

Entering someone’s territorial waters with your military craft could be seen as an act of war, or at the very least an extreme provocation, so Beijing did show some restraint and arguably didn’t want to push Lai so far into a corner that he might be forced to respond.

Beijing has called the PLA drills a “punishment” for Taiwanese separatist forces seeking “independence”. Whatever you call it, it seems the message is loud and clear. Whether in a limited armed conflict fought only across the strait, or a full-blown regional war involving the US, there is no scenario under which Taiwan would come out on top or escape wholesale devastation.

Taiwan’s self-proclaimed protector, the United States, may fancy itself as having dozens of military bases, naval assets and treaty allies that encircle the mainland in the entire north, east and south Pacific. And it regards Taiwan as a key hub in the first of two or even three island chains of encirclement.

In all this, the ultimate goal of the United States – to deter China’s alleged expansionism in the Pacific, at least for a time – may well succeed, but Taiwan here is no more than a pawn.

However, for the mainland and the island, it will be an existential struggle.

Taiwan’s secessionists, if they are realistic, should understand that its current political status with de facto full autonomy is as good as it gets. Any further military and political partnership with the United States serves only Washington’s interests while increasingly threatening Taiwan’s own security, and very existence, by militarising what ought to be a diplomatic relationship rather than an armed stand-off across the Taiwan Strait.

It’s true China’s rich coastal regions may well be devastated by the US in a regional war, but that is not a prospect Taiwan should welcome because it will not fare any better but most likely much worse. The PLA’s repeated drills with encirclement of the island should make that crystal clear. The mainland may not prevail over the US but it can certainly destroy the island.

While the US may want to egg Taiwan on to increase its military capabilities at the expense of its economy, it is a rapidly diminishing return for Taiwan’s security. More and more weapons actually mean less and less security.

Using Taiwan as a provocation works for the US. Washington can portray Beijing as the bully, thus providing further justification for its China encirclement and enforcing the subservience of allies in the region.

It does not work in Taiwan’s favour except for those Taiwanese politicians who are already in cahoots with Washington.

Republished from the South China Morning Post, May 27, 2024

https://johnmenadue.com/us-pawns-taiwanese-separatists-should-stop-deluding-themselves/

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BY Brian Berletic

The Chinese Island province of Taiwan continues to be targeted by the US and its political proxies through efforts to further consolidate political control over it and transform it into a geopolitical “battering ram” against the rest of China.

Considering the catastrophic consequences the Eastern European nation of Ukraine is suffering from a similar US-engineered strategy, understanding what Washington is doing to Taiwan and why there is essential in exposing and possibly avoiding similar consequences of unfolding in the Asia-Pacific region.

New “President,” Same Policy of Separatism 

The US-backed Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai Ching-te took office as the local administration’s “president,” doubling down on a policy of integrating Taiwan further with the United States which includes military, political, and economic subordination.

Lai Ching-te’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen oversaw the expansion of a US troop presence, which according to the Wall Street Journal, includes outer islands claimed by the Taipei-based administration, as well as growing tensions with the rest of China. Taiwan’s local economy has suffered consistently as the island’s administration attempts to reduce its “dependency” on the rest of China, which represents the largest market (nearly half) for all exports from local industries.

Taiwan is Not a Country

The Guardian in its article, “China warns of reprisals against Taiwan after president’s inauguration speech,” attempts to portray China as bullying a “sovereign” Taiwan.

The article claims:

Beijing has warned of undefined reprisals against Taiwan after the inauguration speech of new president Lai Ching-te in which he maintained his government’s position on sovereignty, and did not concede to Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is a province of China.

However, the fact that Taiwan is a province of China is not merely “Beijing’s claim.” It is recognized as such by the United Nations, the “One China” policy of nations around the globe, including the United States and most European states, as well as the constitution of the Taiwan-based “Republic of China” itself.

The Guardian along with much of the collective West’s media deliberately misinforms the general public regarding the status of Taiwan to help enable US efforts to transform the island province into a proxy against the rest of China much in the same way Ukraine has been transformed into a proxy against Russia.

The Guardian also noted:

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) called Lai’s speech “a downright confession of Taiwan independence”, and again labeled Lai a “dangerous separatist”. 

“No one hopes to achieve the reunification of the motherland through peaceful means more than we do,” the statement attributed to TAO spokesperson Chen Binhua said. “However, we must counterattack and punish the DPP authorities in colluding with external forces to pursue ‘independence’ provocations.”

The external forces being referred to of course are Washington and its allies. The DPP, and both Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te specifically, have a long history of consorting with the US government through the Taiwan-based “American Institute in Taiwan” (AIT).

The AIT serves as a de facto US embassy, since the US does not officially recognize Taiwan as a nation. In fact, on the US State Department’s official website, regarding the status of Taiwan, it specifically says, “we do not support Taiwan independence,” while admitting the AIT is “a non-governmental organization mandated by the Taiwan Relations Act to carry out the United States’ unofficial relations with Taiwan.”   

Washington’s Political Capture of Taiwan 

Originally, Taiwan served as the refuge of the fleeing Kuomintang (KMT), the US-backed losers of China’s civil war following the end of World War 2. To prevent China from sweeping away the remnants of Washington’s proxies, the US stationed thousands of troops on the island of Taiwan and invested heavily in maintaining what was then considered a pseudo-government-in-exile.

In the 1970s, the objective of reinstalling the KMT into power over the rest of China was no longer practical. Washington, along with the rest of the world, officially recognized the Beijing-based People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, including Taiwan. The US also agreed to withdraw its military forces and eventually end the sale of weapons to Taiwan.

Despite these initial steps and the US to this day officially denouncing Taiwanese independence, its policy in recent years has been exclusively focused on promoting separatism, including through the return of US troops on the island, building up the military forces of the island’s administration, building up the DPP, maneuvering it into power, and aiding it in consolidating political control over the island to then pivot the population toward an anti-China, pro-separatist footing.

Taiwan: A Disposable Proxy 

While the ultimate goal has for decades been to transform Taiwan into a US client regime, fully independent of China, and use it as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” against the rest of China, the likelihood of this happening now is low. A much more measured objective is to use Taiwan as a means of complicating China’s rise, contributing to a larger US strategy of encirclement and containment, and raising the cost significantly for the eventual, full reunification of Taiwan with the rest of China.

More recent think tank papers, including a January 2023 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report titled, “The First Battle of the Next War: War gaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” discusses a possible Chinese “invasion” of its own island province, and admits that while it believes the US can ultimately frustrate such a military operation, it comes at the price of “extensive damage done to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy.”

Obviously, scouring the physical surface of Taiwan of all industry and infrastructure, rendering its economy destroyed, equates to the destruction of Taiwan’s administration itself. Just like with Ukraine, which US policymakers in 2019 suggested aiding in a military build-up meant to provoke, rather than deter a Russian military intervention, the goal is not to deter conflict or save either Ukraine or Taiwan, but instead provoke conflict that can incur steep costs for both Russia and China, hopefully “extending” either or both nations to the point of a Soviet Union-style collapse.

Ukraine is already paying the cost of this policy vis-à-vis Russia, the policy having categorically failed in “extending” Russia or precipitating a collapse of either its government or economy. The use of Taiwan in a similar manner is unlikely to be any more successful for US policymakers, but Taiwan itself is just as likely to suffer catastrophically in the event of a future conflict as Ukraine is suffering now amid the current, ongoing conflict. Just as the rest of Europe is suffering from Washington’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, Washington’s use of Taiwan to provoke Beijing is having a destabilizing effect on the entire Asia-Pacific region.

The US-backed DPP remaining in office in Taipei ensures the danger of Taiwan becoming the next “Ukraine” remains a high likelihood. In the meantime, Taiwan’s local economy will continue to suffer as the current administration irrationally pivots away from the rest of China and further subordinates itself to US foreign policy objectives.

Only time will tell if Beijing’s own policy toward full reunification can outpace Washington’s policy of destroying the island before this happens. China’s approach involves a combination of military power to confront the growing US militarization of the island and a growing number of economic incentives to share with Taiwan the peace, stability, and prosperity the rest of China has increasingly enjoyed since the turn of the century.

https://journal-neo.su/2024/05/27/taiwan-continues-toward-us-engineered-ukraine-ization/

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