"Another devastating world war, potentially bringing China and the United States into direct conflict. The spread and even the use of nuclear weapons. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza failing to ultimately produce favourable outcomes for Kyiv and Israeli-Palestinian peace. A more multipolar world without robust multilateral institutions. A democratic recession further devolving into a democratic depression."

 

These are just some of the future scenarios for the world in 10 years' time, according to 350 experts surveyed by the Atlantic Council.

 

In a poll of global strategists and foresight practitioners, 40% said they expected there to be another world war by 2035 – defined as a multifront conflict among great powers – tracking "worries expressed by other experts amid major wars in Europe and the Middle East, growing tensions between the US and China, and increasing cooperation among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran", said the think tank.

China

It has long been assumed that the greatest threat to geopolitical stability is the growing tension between China and the US.

Both superpowers are currently "locked in a competition for global influence", said Newsweek, "with Washington emphasising security alliances and Beijing leveraging its economic dominance".

 

Last month, Singapore's prime minister, Lawrence Wong, warned rising tensions between the world's two largest economies could have disastrous consequences. Splitting into two blocs and forcing other countries to align with either superpower risked pushing the globe to "the brink of a third world war", the Straits Times reported.

The recent focus has been on an escalating trade war between the US and China, but most expect a future military confrontation to centre on Taiwan.

While the current focus is very much on Donald Trump's economic brinkmanship, most expect a future military confrontation to centre on Taiwan.

Beijing sees the island nation as an integral part of a unified Chinese territory. It has, in recent years, adopted an increasingly aggressive stance towards the island and its ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which it has denounced as dangerous separatists, but who won an unprecedented third term early last year. At the same time, the US has ramped up its support – financially, militarily and rhetorically – for Taiwan's continued independence.

Last year, the top US military commander in the Indo-Pacific, Admiral John Aquilino, told the US House Armed Services Committee that China wants to build up its People's Liberation Army (PLA) "on a scale not seen" since the Second World War.

Beijing and Washington have become "desensitised" to the risk these circumstances pose, said Foreign Policy, and in the "militarisation of foreign policy and the failure to grasp the full significance of that militarisation, the pair are one accident and a bad decision removed from a catastrophic war".

Any invasion "would be one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century", said The Times in April 2023. It would "make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison".

Human costs aside, any military conflict between the world's two largest economic powers would lead to "a severing of global supply chains, a blow to confidence and crashing asset prices", said The Guardian's economics editor Larry Elliott in 2023. "It would have catastrophic economic consequences, up to and including a second Great Depression."

Russia

Donald Trump has warned the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into World War Three if it is not brought to an end soon.

Speaking alongside Emmanuel Macron in the Oval Office on Monday on the third anniversary of Russia's invasion, the US president said it was in the best interest of Ukraine and Russia to "stop the killing now", claiming that the war could end "within weeks" and would never have even started had he been in the White House.

Trump's "chilling" assessment comes after his "approach to peace negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin have been strongly criticised by many European political figures as well as Western analysts", said The Mirror.

With Germany's Friedrich Merz, front-runner to become the next chancellor, issuing what Politico called a "stark warning" that Europe must be prepared to defend itself without the US, Eastern European members of Nato are dramatically ramping up defence spending as they look to protect their borders.

Three years on from Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, "liberal-democratic" states across Europe "are in agreement", defence expert Francis Tusa said in The Independent: if Kyiv "loses its struggle against Russia, the latter may be emboldened to take military action against the Baltic states, Finland, or even Poland".

Many defence specialists agree the timeline for this is "within three to five years" and would force Nato into all-out conflict with Moscow, which could in turn call on allies from China, North Korea and Iran to join in a global war.

"Serious analysts express concern that Russia may escalate and the world, as it has done so many times in the era of mass warfare, may sleepwalk its way into an engulfing conflict," said The New Statesman.

Middle East

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned the ceasefire agreement In Gaza is "precarious", reported the BBC, amid claims by Hamas that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is "intentionally sabotaging" the deal that ended over a year of bloody fighting, which had left thousands dead on both sides and risked escalating in an all-out regional war.

The ceasefire agreed last month marked a turning point for the region, following a tumultuous 15 months that started with Hamas' deadly 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, followed by the invasion of Gaza, the significant weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Perhaps most concerning is the effect these events have had on Iran. The Tehran regime's "growing vulnerability" has alarmed its government, said The Washington Post, "stirring fears that its steadily escalating conflict with Israel could soon enter a more dangerous phase".

Tensions are already running "high" over Iran's nuclear programme, said Al Jazeera, "which critics fear is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon – something Tehran has repeatedly denied".

The US and UK are "increasingly concerned" that Russia is sharing secret information and technology with Iran, which could "bring it closer to being able to build nuclear weapons, in exchange for Tehran providing Moscow with ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine", said Bloomberg.

Due to the "complex web of alliances and rivalries" across the Middle East, conflicts between Iran and Israel could see the US brought directly into the fighting, said The Independent. Trump has been a vocal hawk against Iran, so his second presidency will do little to temper concerns.

North Korea

Since talks with Trump in 2019 broke down over disagreements about international sanctions on Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un has "focused on modernising his nuclear and missile arsenals", said Sky News.

In a symbolic yet nevertheless strategically important move, at the start of 2024 he announced that the hermit kingdom had abandoned "the existential goal of reconciling with rival South Korea", said The Associated Press.

The South has since scrapped a "2018 non-hostility pact aimed at lowering military tensions", The Independent said. This indicates the "psychological warfare" had "tipped over into real escalation".

In a further sign North Korea is increasingly willing to wield influence beyond its borders, its troops have been deployed against Ukraine to help Russia with its war effort. Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv had captured two North Korean soldiers, with around 300 believed to have been killed in the war, according to Seoul's National Intelligence Service.

North Korean units have reportedly now been pulled from the frontlines after experiencing punishingly high casualty rates. But Ukraine's former military commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny said the involvement of North Korea in the conflict means, in a sense, the Third World War has already begun.

https://theweek.com/92967/are-we-heading-towards-world-war-3

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

WE WISH FOR COMMON SENSE, BUT I THINK THIS THING FLEW OFF THE PLANET 2,500 YEARS AGO.... MY TRUSTED ALIEN FRIENDS CONFIRMED THAT COMMON SENSE NEVER CAME HERE... SO THERE, THE MORONS DISCUSS WW3 AS IF ONE WAS GOING TO A PICNIC....

GUSNOTE: THERE WERE NO NORTH KOREAN TROOPS USED BY RUSSIA ACCORDING TO LARRY JOHNSON... THESE GUYS WERE A FEW EASTERN ASIAN LOOKING RUSSIANS WHO "DID NOT SUSTAIN HIGH CASUALTY RATES BEYOND WHAT RUSSIAN TROOPS ENDURED (AT LEAST 10 TIMES LESS THAN UKRAINIAN TROOPS) EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN MEDIA...