Friday 18th of April 2025
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vote for labor and save as much of the furniture as possible....

The federal Coalition has left open the possibility it could leave the Paris climate accord, if it determines that meeting climate targets would do too much damage to the economy.

The Coalition has previously said it will dump Australia's current climate target to reduce emissions by 43 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.

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It argues the target cannot possibly be reached, and would have to be revised should it win office.

Questions have previously been raised as to whether abandoning the 43 per cent target would threaten Australia's place in the Paris Agreement, as the agreement does not allow targets to be weakened. 

Shadow energy minister Ted O'Brien was asked during a National Press Club debate whether the Coalition would set new climate targets, regardless of the implications for the climate accord.

"When it comes to establishing future targets, we need to account for three things," he said. 

"One, the trajectory of emissions. Two, the state of the Australian economy. And, three, the suite of our policies, not Labor's policies.

"We want to ensure that we are growing this country. Decarbonising it is good, de-industrialising it like Labor is, is bad.

"Once we have done that analysis, then we will be making decisions along the lines that you pose."

Mr O'Brien was further pressed on whether the Coalition is prepared to leave the Paris Agreement after considering the three factors he had outlined, and left open the option.

"I can commit that we will always act in the national interest and we will be up-front with the Australian people," he said.

The Coalition's campaign spokesperson, Jane Hume, was later asked on the ABC's Afternoon Briefing to clarify if the Coalition was committed to the Paris Agreement.

"Yes, we are committed to the Paris Agreement, there is no doubt about that," she said. 

"But on Labor's current trajectory the idea of hitting 43 per cent is an absolute fantasy, and I think that's exactly what it was Ted was alluding to."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-10/coalition-keeps-open-option-of-quitting-paris-climate-agreement/105161842

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

more warmish....

The Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) updated seasonal outlook is predicting one of Australia's warmest winters on record.

Another winter of unseasonably high temperatures would follow our two warmest winters on record in 2023 and 2024, and would swing the odds to favour a third consecutive poor snow season.

While the temperature outlook is clear, rainfall prospects are more variable with the majority of the country having a near even chance of above or below average falls.

Temperatures consistently 2C above pre-industrial levels

Since last August, Australia has baked through a mean temperature 2.1 degrees Celsius above the baseline average from 1961-1990, which equates to a temperature about 2.5C above pre-industrial levels.

According to modelling released by the BOM today, this abnormal run of high temperatures will continue into winter.

The outlook indicates a mean temperature, which is the average of minimums and maximums, about 1.5C above the 1961-1990 baseline across Australia.

Since winter temperatures do not fluctuate as severely as other seasons, a deviation of this magnitude would rank in the top three warmest winters on record, joining a +1.54C anomaly in 2023 and +1.49 anomaly in 2024.

Relative to temperatures in the early 20th century, the BOM's forecast equates to an increase in temperatures of about 2C this winter.

Other forecasts released this week also favour a warm winter, including from the well renowned European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which runs the most accurate weather model in the world.

The ECMWF tips a winter temperature from 0.5C to 1C above the 1993-2016 average for about two thirds of Australia, equivalent to a 1C to 1.5C warming above the BOM's baseline period.

The last time our national average winter temperature was below the long-term average was back in 2012.

Snow season on a downhill slope

It's no surprise a clear link exists between temperatures and snow season quality, since for every 1C of warming the snowline rises from 100 to 150 metres.

In higher alpine regions around the world, temperatures are comfortably below zero and climate change has so far had little impact on skiing conditions.

Unfortunately, that's not the case in Australia, where our modest mountains and latitude result in alpine temperatures only marginally below freezing even on the coldest days.

The consequence is the unprecedented heat during 2023 and 2024 brought two of the worst snow seasons on record, especially for lower resorts which struggled to retain a snow cover for more than a few weeks.

While a warm winter is a near certainty, if precipitation happens to coincide with the cooler days, a reasonable snow season can still eventuate — as we saw in 2013 and 1991.

The issue though in recent years, is not necessarily how much snow is falling, it's the warm temperatures between snowfalls leading to rapid melting and rain.

Mount Hotham for example reported over 3m of snow falling in 2023, but the natural snow depth failed to reach 1m.

The consecutive poor years is also impacting visitor numbers to our alpine regions.

The Australian Ski Areas Association reported a 35 per cent drop in total visitors between 2022 (a relatively good snow year) and 2024.

Ocean temperatures driving heat

In the absence of broadscale influences like El Niño or La Niña, the main contributor to the ongoing abnormal heat has been the local environment.

Specifically, the chief influence is the state of ocean temperatures surrounding our country which remain comfortably warmer than normal off every coastline.

The highest water temperatures compared to normal are currently off the west coast, up to 3C, and although anomalies will fluctuate in the coming months, modelling suggests the general pattern of ocean warmth will continue until at least mid-spring.

The additional heat in the ocean helps to warm the layer of air just above the surface — which then leads to warmer winds blowing across land.

When combined with already raised atmospheric temperatures from climate change, the consequence is the frequent temperature records observed during the past nine months.

Mixed rainfall signals

While the temperature outlook is straightforward, the lack of an active seasonal driver from the Pacific or Indian Ocean has reduced the confidence in rainfall predictions.

Essentially, there is less certainty in whether precipitation will be above or below normal.

The only exception is in north-west Australia where the warmer oceans should boost evaporation and convection — which adds moisture to the atmosphere.

The other impediment to a more certain winter rain forecast is the autumn predictability barrier, a term used by meteorologists to describe the lower accuracy in seasonal models at this time of year.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-10/weather-warm-winter-record-bom-prediction-snow-season/105160784

 

MY OWN PRECISE CLIMATE INDICATORS ARE PREDICTING A WARM WINTER... IN LINE WITH GLOBAL WARMING...

WE HAVE TO GET RID OF THE MORONS WHO RUN THE LIBERAL (CONSERVATIVE) PARTY...

READ FROM TOP.

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.