Germany’s new chancellor Friedrich Merz has plunged the country into a deep political and geopolitical crisis, driven by aggressive pro-war rhetoric and a failing foreign policy agenda centered on Ukraine.

 

Merz in a dead end    Ricardo Nuno Costa The fragile German government that took office in bizarre fashion on its second attempt in early May in the Bundestag is already at a dead end. The obsession with wanting to play a military role in Ukraine and all the political consequences that followed were the main reason for the fall of the ‘traffic light coalition’ and will unsurprisingly be the trigger for the next political crisis in Germany.

Merz came to power after a disastrous resignation government, largely due to Berlin’s foreign policy, especially towards an overly important partner, Russia. Merz only disagreed with the traffic light coalition because it was ‘too passive’. Merz is an ultra. As opposition leader, he even accused Scholz of being ‘personally responsible’ for the fact that ‘Ukraine has to fight Putin with one hand tied behind its back’ and called for an ultimatum to Russia.

Total sanctions on Russian energy imports will affect Europe more than Russia 

In November, exploiting public emotions following the horrific Israeli bombing of civilians and the carnage in Gaza, he seized the opportunity to say that ‘This cannot go on, and if Putin does not accept it, then the next step must be taken, and he must be told: if he does not stop bombing the civilian population in Ukraine within 24 hours, then the Federal Republic of Germany will also have to supply Taurus cruise missiles to destroy the supply routes that this regime uses to harm and bomb the civilian population in Ukraine.’ This was warmongering rhetoric and a declaration of intent.

After winning the elections in February, he made it clear that he would not give up supporting the Kiev proxy regime and betting everything against Putin, insisting on the delivery of the Taurus missiles. Merz believes that the German missile is the decisive ‘Wunderwaffe’ that the Western coalition, which has been clashing with Russian lines for three years, has been lacking. The Taurus is neither a game changer, nor is there any consensus among European allies on such an escalation. Not to mention that Trump, the only decisive Western player, has shown no interest in Merz’s plans and has disdainfully rejected his attempts to build closer ties with Washington.

Now the German threats are rebounding off reality, putting the fragile government in a dead end. Merz is dragging Germany into a spiral of disorganised, inconsequential and irresponsible military and financial threats. In this context, he has no choice but to double down. Until when?

During an unforgettable train ride to Kiev in May, the footage of which will go down in history as a circus spectacle, Merz, together with Macron and Starmer, issued yet another ‘ultimatum to Putin’ to declare a 30-day ceasefire, and otherwise the allies would respond with ‘tougher sanctions’.

Obviously, without Putin falling into yet another trap. Not least because Moscow knows that at this stage of the game, the EU no longer has any trump cards to continue the poker game it insists on playing. The freezing of assets in euros was the most significant move from a financial point of view, and it was played by Brussels right at the start of the Ukrainian conflict. There, in the megalomania of emotionalism, Europe’s slight economic advantage was exhausted. As those in the know warned at the time, Russia is definitely not Venezuela, Syria, Iraq or North Korea.

There, in the megalomania of emotions, Europe’s slight economic advantage was exhausted. As those in the know warned at the time, Russia is definitely not Venezuela, Syria, Iraq or North Korea. But the European ‘elites’, drunk with their own arrogance, did not get it.

Putin also knows that total sanctions on Russian energy imports will affect Europe more than Russia. Moreover, this step would require the approval of Hungary and Slovakia, which would veto such a proposal.

All this is beginning to have an effect on German politics. In the CDU/CSU, there are increasing calls for a gradual resumption of relations with Moscow. The conservative wing now finds itself more in line with the AfD’s, which is already leading in the polls, than with Merz’s warmongering stance. The chancellor threatens to become a revamped, right-wing version of the Atlanticist caricature Annalena Baerbock.

In any case, Merz will certainly be the chancellor who will have to resolve the major problem of transatlantic relations, which has been pending since the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022. The necessary reconstruction of the pipelines at some point will bring with it the logical accountability for that act of war against a major German, Russian and European civil infrastructure.

Does Merz have any plan to untie this Gordian knot, or did he realise at the end of his first week in office that he has to turn back because he is at a dead end?

 

Ricardo Nuno Costa ‒ geopolitical expert, writer, columnist, and editor-in-chief of geopol.pt

https://journal-neo.su/2025/06/30/merz-in-a-dead-end/

 

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