IN PHYSICS EVERY ACTION HAS A REACTION…

Isaac Newton's Second Law of Motion describes what happens when an external force acts upon a massive body at rest or in uniform linear motion. What happens to the body from which that external force is being applied? That situation is described by Newton's Third Law of Motion. It states, "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." 

Newton published his laws of motion in 1687, in his seminal work “Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica” (Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy) in which he formalized the description of how massive bodies move under the influence of external forces. 

Newton expanded upon the earlier work of Galileo Galilei, who developed the first accurate laws of motion for masses, according to Greg Bothun, a physics professor at the University of Oregon. Galileo's experiments showed that all bodies accelerate at the same rate regardless of size or mass. Newton also critiqued and expanded on the work of Rene Descartes, who also published a set of laws of nature in 1644, two years after Newton was born. Descartes' laws are very similar to Newton’s first law of motion.

THIS IS EASY TO UNDERSTAND (HOPEFULLY) IN SIMPLE CONDITIONS. 

IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS OF INTEGRATED RELATIONSHIPS, THE OBVIOUS BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BY DELAYS IN THE CHAIN OF “REACTION”… EVEN IN NUCLEAR BOMBS, THERE IS A SHORT TIMELINE OF REACTION TIME… MANY CHEMICAL REACTIONS “TAKE TIME”. NOTHING MUCH IS INSTANTANEOUS... 

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR A SYSTEM AS LARGE AS THE ENTIRE SURFACE OF THE EARTH, INCLUDING ITS ATMOSPHERE?

IT MEANS THAT SOME ACTIONS WILL GENERATE DELAYED REACTIONS THEMSELVES GENERATING CONTRARY AND CONTRIBUTING ACTIONS THAT WILL HAVE DELAYED REACTIONS…

IN SHORT, THIS IS THE PROBLEM WE ARE FACING WITH “GLOBAL WARMING”: DELAYS IN THE COMBINED ACTION/REACTION TIMES…

CALCULATIONS OF ALL THE OBSERVED ACTIONS AND REACTIONS DEMAND MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF COMPUTATIONS AND MINIMISATION OF ERRORS.

THIS IS WHY GUS LEONISKY TAKES A SHORT CUT: SVANTE ARRHENIUS CALCULATED THROUGH STUDYING TWO STATES OF THE EARTH SYSTEM, GLACIAL AND WARM PERIODS, THE DIFFERENCE OF ACTIVE INFLUENCING FACTORS BETWEEN ONE STATE AND THE OTHER.

AFTER PAINSTAKING MATHEMATICS AND ASSESSMENTS OF COMPETING AND CONTRARY FACTORS, HIS CONCLUSION WAS STARK: 

CO2 WAS THE MAIN DRIVER — AND STABILISING — FACTOR OF TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WE HAVE EXPLAINED THIS MANY TIMES, ON THIS SITE.

ONE OF THE MISCONCEPTION OF DENIALIST OF GLOBAL WARMING IS TO DISMISS THE TIMELINES…

FOR EXAMPLE, THE CHANGE FROM ONE STATE TO ANOTHER, FROM AN ICE AGE TO A WARM PERIOD, NATURALLY OCCURS OVER THOUSANDS OF YEARS. 

AT THIS LEVEL, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THOUGH, THAT THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST ICE AGE TO THE PRESENT WARM PERIOD WAS SOMEWHAT RECORDED IN THE OVERHANGS OF ARNHEM LAND, AUSTRALIA, BY ABORIGINAL PEOPLE — FROM 12,000 TO 9,000 YEARS AGO. THEY RECORDED THE CHANGES IN NATURE… SAY, THE FRESH FISH SPECIES IN THE RIVERS WERE NOW REPLACED BY SEA SPECIES IN WHAT HAS BEEN DESCRIBED AS THE ESTUARINE CHANGEOVER.

ARRHENIUS CALCULATIONS MADE HIM TO CONCLUDE THAT THE AMOUNT OF CO2 EMITTED FROM THE START OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (SAY 1850) TO 1900 WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURE BY 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. 

DUE TO DELAYS IN ACTION/REACTION TIME THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. 

SINCE 1900, WE HAVE ADDED OODLES MORE CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE — ENOUGH TO RAISE THE GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BY AN EXTRA 9 DEGREES CELSIUS… 

THIS WILL HAPPEN… THIS WILL HAPPEN… THIS WILL HAPPEN… BUT WHEN? ROUGHLY 150 TO 250 YEARS FROM NOW. DELAYS IN ACTION/REACTION, SEE.

IN PSYCHOLOGY, THERE IS OFTEN A REACTION TO AN ACTION… BUT HERE WE DO NOT HAVE TO CONSIDER DELAYS AS MUCH AS THE WRONG CHOICES OF REACTION. THIS IS IMPORTANT HERE…

MOST OF WHAT WE, HUMANS, CHOOSE TO DO IS BASED ON CHOICE AND TRADITIONS (HABITS) OF CHOICES.

THE PICTURE OF THE THERMOMETER AT TOP IS TELLING. IT’S 55 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE SUN. IT’S 38 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE SHADE… 17 DEGREES DIFFERENCE. 

SO WHAT’S THE BEEF?

MOST PLANTS ARE HEAT RESISTANT — TO A POINT. A FEW YEARS AGO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE IN THE SHADE WAS 45 DEGREES CELSIUS IN SYDNEY AND 49.9 IN THE WESTERN SUBURBS, THE HEAT WOULD HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE 65 DEGREES IN THE SUN. AS WE HAVE SHOWN IN A FEW POSTS AND IMAGES, MANY PLANTS EITHER “BOILED” OR BURNED.

THE PRESENT DIFFERENCE OF TEMPERATURE, BETWEEN THE BEGINNING OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND NOW, IS MODEST, NEARING 1.5 DEGREE CELSIUS. AND CLIMBING… 

PSYCHOLOGICALLY, WE DO NOT FEEL THE CHANGE… WE CANNOT FEEL THE CHANGE — EXCEPT WE NOTICE SOME “UNUSUAL” CATASTROPHIC ATMOSPHERIC EVENTS THAT BECOME MORE FREQUENT. BUT THESE ARE “ISOLATED” AND NOT “DAILY OCCURRENCES” IN OUR OWN BACKYARD. 

WE HAVE NOT UNDERSTOOD, POLITICALLY AND PSYCHOLOGICALLY, THE ACTION/REACTION DELAYS IN THE SYSTEM APART FROM THE LOONY SCIENTISTS WHO STUDY “CLIMATE CHANGE”…

THEY PANIC. OUR MOBS IN GOVERNMENTS CARRY ON POLISHING TURDS… ACCORDING TO TRUMP-THE-WISE-GUY, OIL IS STILL THE MAIN CURRENCY OF OUR ACTIVITIES. NOT TO MENTION COAL AND GAS. 

WE’RE GOING TO HAVE BUCKLEY’S CHANCES TO ACHIEVE “NET ZERO”… THOUGH ACHIEVING THIS WOULD NOT MAKE AN OUNCE OF DIFFERENCE FOR ANOTHER 50 YEARS… 

MEANWHILE, BY 2032, A MASSIVE TIPPING POINT IS LIKELY TO SHIFT GLOBAL CLIMATIC PATTERNS. 

THIS COULD MEAN A MUCH COLDER ENGLAND AND A GERMANY ON FIRE… TAKE YOUR PICK OR BOTH… HURRICANES, TYPHOONS AND CYCLONES WILL HAVE INCHED CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. TORNADOES IN SINGAPORE? WHY NOT… 

9 DEGREES CELSIUS EXTRA, ON TOP OF THE PRESENT LOVELY GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 2225? WHY NOT?

IT’S COMPUTABLE BUT WE DO NOT WANT TO KNOW…

GOOD LUCK.

GUS LEONISKY.

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

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