I honestly do not know what Trump is going to do. I can only tell you what I am being told. A friend of mine who happens to live in the UAE, reached out to me late last night with info he had received from an Emirati official who is plugged into the UAE defense establishment. That official told my friend that the US would attack Iran on 7 May… That is Thursday.

Ball of Confusion… Trump’s Mixed Signals on Iran

by Larry C. Johnson

Given the source’s access, I find the information credible. Then Trump releases this around 6 pm eastern:

Based on the request of Pakistan and other
Countries, the tremendous Military Success that
we have had during the Campaign against the
Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that
Great Progress has been made toward a
Complete and Final Agreement with
Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed
that, while the Blockade will remain in full force
and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of
Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be
paused for a short period of time to see whether
or not the Agreement can be finalized and
signed. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Following Trump’s Truth post, the US Air Force just went strangely quiet over Europe and West Asia. In the last 24 hours, American military aircraft airborne across the region have collapsed — from over 27 yesterday to just 7 right now. All logistics and tankers: C-17 Globemasters, a C-5M Super Galaxy, and KC-135 Stratotankers shuttling between Ramstein, Spangdahlem, Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi, and Al Udeid. No combat birds. No surge.

I learned from another source — unverified — a possible explanation for Trump’s apparent reversal may have something to do with his upcoming trip to China… Beijing put an implicit ultimatum around the upcoming Trump / Xi trip, threatening to cancel or downgrade the visit if there is any further escalation by the US against Iran. 

About the same time that Trump announced he was putting Operation Project Freedom on pause, the IRGC strongly denied that they had fired any missiles or drones at UAE. So, was the attack yesterday and today a false flag by Israel, still trying to provoke a renewed attack on Iran? Certainly a viable possibility.

Then we have the Marco Rubio… Rubio stepped behind the White House briefing room podium to fill in — at least temporarily — for Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt while she is on maternity leave, placing the nation’s top diplomat in the unusual role of chief White House spokesman. Rubio spoke at length about Project Freedom — the US operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz — emphasizing that all operations in the region are defensive in nature, framing Iran’s blockade as an attempt to extort transit tolls. He stated that “Operation Epic Fury” — the original February 28 US-Israel attack on Iran — “is concluded” because all its objectives were successfully met, but stopped short of declaring the overall conflict over or ruling out its resumption.

On the defensive posture, Rubio was direct: “There’s no shooting unless we’re shot at first. We’re not attacking them. If they pose a threat to our forces, we’ll shoot down drones, we’ll shoot down missiles. But it’s defensive in nature.” With respect to Iran, Rubio said Iranian claims of not wanting to develop nuclear weapons are contradicted by their actions, pointing to Iran’s development of advanced centrifuge technology, uranium enrichment, and construction of underground bunkers. He said Iran must choose between war and peace, and that peace will require a convincing demonstration that Tehran won’t pursue nuclear arms.

Responding to a question about Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to China, Rubio said he hopes Beijing will tell Tehran that its actions in the strait are causing global isolation. “I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told — that what you are doing in the strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You’re the bad guy in this.” He also argued that China, more than the US, is suffering from Iran’s actions, given its export-driven economy’s dependence on Hormuz shipping.

What I find most troubling is that the Trump administration appears convinced that Iran’s economy is crashing and that the Iranian government is desperate for a deal. That is simply not true, but the Trump folks seem convinced. Iran is not going to reverse itself on its 14 point peace plan, which includes an end to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza. Likewise, I do not believe that team Trump is willing to acquiesce to those demands, which means an impasse.

Iran’s Fars News Agency reacted to Trump’s Truth post as follows: 

The President of the United States, in the face of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s firm warnings, announced early Wednesday morning a temporary suspension of the military plan in the Strait of Hormuz.

From Iran’s perspective, they are still holding trump cards while Donald Trump is still being inundated with demands from the ardent Zionists that he finish off Iran militarily. We will know by Friday which course of action Trump has chosen.

https://sonar21.com/ball-of-confusion-trumps-mixed-signals-on-iran/

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