Unbridled Delusions Regarding Iran and Ukraine

8 July 2026 by Larry C. Johnson

Lots going on tonight. The biggest news is that the US has once again violated the MoU by attacking Iran. To understand the extent of this violation it is essential to recall what is stated in paragraph 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran:

Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

No where in the document does it stipulate that Iran cannot enforce its Persian Gulf Strait Authority protocols. The Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) is an Iranian government body (linked to the IRGC) established to manage and regulate maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Main requirements of the protocols include:

Safety and Demining: Ties into MoU commitments for immediate traffic resumption alongside Iranian efforts to clear obstacles/mines within 30 days.

Advance Transit Request: Vessels must submit a formal request at least 48 hours before entering the strait area. Requests go through the PGSA’s official website, portal, or email (e.g., [email protected]).

Detailed Vessel Information Declaration: A comprehensive form requiring extensive data, including:

Vessel identity (name, IMO number, flag, type, tonnage, draft, etc.).

Ownership and management details (registered owner, ship manager, charterer).

Cargo details (type, quantity, value, dangerous goods declaration).

Crew information (number, nationalities).

Insurance (P&I club and other coverage).

Route, origin/destination, and intended transit date/time.

Authorization and Compliance: Only vessels submitting compliant requests and receiving PGSA approval are permitted to transit. Ships must follow designated Iranian routes and instructions. Non-compliance (deviation or lack of permission) may result in denial of passage or “forceful response.”

Fee/Tariff Waiver (Temporary): During the initial 60-day period under the MoU, no charges for security, safety, environmental services, or related Iranian insurances. After this, Iran has signaled potential fees for services, subject to ongoing talks with Oman and other littoral states.

Defined Management Area: Iran has outlined specific boundaries for supervision (e.g., lines connecting Iranian points like Mount Mubarak/Qeshm Island to UAE-side points), within which coordination with PGSA is mandatory.

The protocol specifically warns that non-compliant ships will face, “denial of passage or “forceful response.” There is nothing in the MoU giving the US authority to attack Iran for enforcing the PGSA protocols. Yet that is exactly what the US did on Tuesday… Launching missiles and bombs at Iranian targets in the Persian Gulf.

As I write this Iran is responding with its own barrage of missiles and drones against US targets, which include the airfields in Kuwait and Bahrain. The IRIB confirmed that projectiles were launched from multiple sites in Iran, while an official statement from the IRGC warned that any aggression would face a decisive response.

According to The Associated Press, authorities in Bahrain confirmed they faced incoming missiles this morning, with local emergency sirens sounding as the General Staff of the Kuwaiti Army simultaneously announced its own air defense systems were actively engaging and intercepting hostile targets overhead.

If Iran limits its strikes to just Kuwait and Bahrain I think it is giving the US a chance to backdown. If the US continues the strikes then I expect Iran to expand its targets to include Mowafaq al Salti airbase in Jordan and possibly Israeli airfields. At this point the MoU is hanging by a thread.

The President of Finland is certifiably insane. During an interview aired on CNBC on Tuesday, Alexander Stubb proclaimed that Ukraine has won the war against Russia by managing to preserve its independence and sovereignty for more than four years. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also said that, “Russia is certainly not winning the war against Ukraine right now.” 

Russia apparently did not get that memo. Russia is not offering to retreat from the Donbas, Zaporhyzhia, Kherson and Crimea. In fact, Russia is intensifying its missile, drone and FAB-glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions across the country. I don’t know how much more “winning” Ukraine can endure.

https://sonar21.com/unbridled-delusions-regarding-iran-and-ukraine/

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4v7iQ607VU

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