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the wheel of fortune .....It is not hard to picture Tony Abbott bouncing awake each morning and spinning a large chocolate wheel to see which of the government's competing misfortunes he should exploit that day. They include: Asylum seekers: The High Court has killed the Malaysia solution, putting the sword to Julia Gillard's pledge for a regional solution to people smuggling. Now presiding over a split party, her options are to backflip and embrace Nauru, or allow onshore processing. Carbon tax: It is the policy that caused the government's poll ratings to fall off a cliff. Although the Parliament will pass the legislation in coming months, the broken promise by the Prime Minister haunts her. She hopes people will soften. Craig Thomson: Labor nervously awaits a decision by NSW police whether to launch a criminal investigation into Mr Thomson's alleged credit card misuse. Regardless, the Prime Minister has had to stick by her embattled MP because of the government's slender majority, robbing her of capital she does not have. Mining tax: The watered-down mining tax is expected to pass Parliament this year, but the Greens are threatening to make mischief and try to squeeze more revenue out of it. It has been a controversy for the government since Kevin Rudd announced it. Poker machines: The sharpest threat facing the government is that by Andrew Wilkie to withdraw his support should legislation leading to restrictions on poker machines not have passed Parliament by May 31 next year. The numbers are not there to pass the legislation and Wilkie's threatened action will collapse the government. In the meantime, the issue is destroying Labor MPs in marginal seats. Manufacturing: The large-scale job losses announced last week by BlueScope Steel have increased pressure on the government to do more to help the non-mining sector struggling with the ravages of the high dollar and terms of trade. Unable to do anything protectionist, the government's options are limited. Live exports: Although live cattle exports to Indonesia have resumed, the two-month suspension has caused a backlog in northern Australia and ongoing economic and political problems. Surplus: The government's promise to return the budget to surplus next financial year hangs over it like the Sword of Damocles. It has become an objective because of renewed fears of a global slowdown. The next election is due in 2013, meaning no surplus and the opposition will be merciless.
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a pyrrhic victory for Abbott...
Yes John
I am prepared to believe that Julia is more clever than most... Knowing that processing of refugees onshore is quite unpalatable to the ritewingnuttery — and to most of the Australian population — she had to find a clever way to discreedit the offshore processing... Now that the Malaysian solution is sunk to the hurrays of the coalition and of the entire population delight as seeing Julia whacked, the Nauru deal is also off limits — OTHERWISE THIS WOULD SHOW THAT THE HIGH COURT WAS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED in its sinking of the malysian deal.
Thus the only solution left is ONSHORE PROCESSING.
Meanwhile of course Julia is going to rattle the possum by claiming this and that, but secretly, she knew the better solution has to be adopted... and more boats will come with their own dangers, but that's life... The Nauru solution of Rattus never stopped the boat coming and 99 per cent of those who came and were processed in Nauru came to Australia eventually within one or two years...
Don't tell anyone. Julia has achieved the best solution for all, while willingly collecting eggs on her face. Very clever. Very altruistic. Very devious for the best.... I believe she'll find similar ways to discredit herself while achieving the best outcomes for all. It's not a new tactic but one that has to be used against someone like Abbott, who has no idea of the price of anything and is quite vile in his demands — having the support of the media, enforcing the population to believe Julia is crook. I've been there myself, sometimes arguing that of course I'm wrong and letting the events prove that I'm right...
in regard to the cattle export...
Julia was caught between a hard rock and a hard place on this one and though people (mostly farmers and Julia's detractors) say she "did the wrong thing" by stopping cattle export for a bit more than a month, the result is a reasonably good outcome. Sure people said that an inquiry should have been put in place before shutting down the export but the shock value of shutting down — despite the cattle people's cry — worked better and faster than yet another "inquiry". The cattle people got compensated to the value of one month's value of their industry and Indonesian abbatoirs are cleaning their act. Julia copped the flak willingly but the result is effective.
in regard to the carbon tax
Yes Julia said one thing during the election and did another on this one but Australia NEEDS a carbon tax in a hurry. Julia lied about it during the election and kaboom a carbon tax is probably going to be voted for, in Parliament this year. Julia gets more eggs on her face but the carbon tax is going to be implemented. Tony nil, Julia 3 goals. Yet Julia appears to play like a fumbling novice, while Tony has the dexterity of a gazelle but he cannot score...
in regard to manufacturing
The high value of the dollar due to a reasonable Australian economy (despite Tony's and the media's claim that Julia's Labor government is incompetent) in a world looking more and more like a dirty row of ragged dolls, has created problems and people (unions, the screaming rite and others) want Julia to hold yet another inquiry... She refuses and gets eggs on her face but behind the scene she's working hard at finding ways to sort that problem without upsetting the Chinese, the US and other trade partners who expect favours... I can't preempt here what she's going to do, but I've guessed that much...
in regard to the pokies...
There are some powerful lobby groups such as the club associations and the AHA that are bitting hard... Most of the media is misrepresenting the proposed new Wilkie laws... Watch me... Julia at a particular point will take the plunge, get egg on her face in the media, but the Wilkie laws will be voted for... Tony: nil. Julia: 5
What I am trying to explain here in a crude way is that Julia does not care much about her "popularity" unlike Tony who plays dirty to the cheers of the crowd barracking for him... In the long run, Julia is after a win-win for Australia not for herself — unlike Tony-doo — if you see what I mean.
in regard to the mining tax
With BHP Billiton having posted a record profit, economists are starting to query the insane profits at the expense of digging the dirt that really belongs to all Australians... Of course the WA Liberal government and the miners will claim this and that. Julia will at some point get more egg on her face by making an "unreasonable" proposal that will be pooppooed by all, but in a turn around, Julia will manage to get a foot through the door... and get a look in at a super mining tax... Tony: nil. Julia: six
Okay, you with me so far? One of the reason why Tony is rabidly jumping up and down is that despite the "populous" vote and the crowd cheering him to kick Julia where it hurts, he know he's loosing the game...
Australia is far better off with Julia that with Tony... And Tony does not like that...
in regard to the surplus...
Wayne Swan is a master magician and I would not be surprise if he does manage to create a virtual surplus (a surplus nonetheless) by 2012 budget... Of course some of the decisions in regard to some fiddle will bring more egg on the face of Julia, but the point would be made. Tony: nil. Julia: seven... Australia wins.
This is the plan. There are many hurdles before all this is resolved but the way Julia plays is the only way to maintain a rabid Tony at bay...
My view. Don't tell anyone.
in regard to "struggling families"...
Claims that many Australians are doing it tough and households are being weighed down by the soaring cost of living no longer match up with the facts.
A comprehensive analysis of household spending by the Bureau of Statistics shows that in real terms we are richer than we were six years ago, and while we're spending more on essentials like housing and transport, we are also spending more on recreation.
The average household spent about $1,240 a week in 2010 - that is $340 more than six years earlier.
Part of that is because prices have risen - inflation was up 19 per cent - but that is compared to a 38 per cent climb in spending.
But it is also because incomes have risen 50 per cent and that suggests that although we may be paying more for goods and services, we are consuming more as well.
Ben Phillips, a principal research fellow at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, says people are spending more on luxuries.
"The simple reality seems to be that people are actually doing really quite well," he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-07/household-spending-report-released/2875106
in regard to the NBN
Optus has promised not to criticise the performance or functionality of the National Broadband Network (NBN) for the first 15 years of its operation.
The agreement also prevents Optus from using negative marketing tactics when promoting its wireless services in the same area as the $36 billion NBN.
But Optus says the agreement is limited and it remains free to compete for customers.
The agreement is currently before the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-07/optus-agrees-to-nbn-gag/2874868
in regard to the school champlaincy...
Schools will be able to choose whether to employ chaplains or secular welfare officers under changes to the controversial chaplaincy program announced today.
The $222 million program has been under fire since being announced in the budget, with the Greens concerned that chaplains had to be attached to religious organisations and the scheme did not mandate minimum qualifications.
Now Education Minister Peter Garrett says schools will be given the option to choose a secular student welfare officer instead of a chaplain for student counselling.
He says minimum qualification standards will also be introduced, as well as improvements to the complaints management system.
Earlier this year the ABC raised concerns about the program, amid allegations that chaplains had been acting outside their guidelines and counselling children without being properly qualified to do so.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-07/changes-to-chaplaincy-program/2874876
in regard to craig thomson...
Federal Labor MP Craig Thomson will not be subject to a criminal investigation by New South Wales Police.
Mr Thomson, whose seat plays a critical role in the Gillard government's balance of power, is under pressure over how his Health Services Union credit card was used to pay for prostitutes while he was heading up the union.
The Member for Dobell has admitted authorising the payment to an escort service in 2005 - but has said another man used the card and forged his signature.
In a statement issued overnight, police said there was no basis for a formal investigation into any offence under New South Wales law.
Police media spokeswoman Joanne Elliot says the State Crime Fraud and Cyber Crime Squad made its assessment after receiving a letter from shadow attorney-general George Brandis about the credit card's use.
"Based on the subsequent material and information provided to NSW Police by the Health Services Union, including a 120-page document relating to their own examination of the use of Mr Thomson's credit card, it was concluded that based on the accounting practices of the union relating to the use of corporate credit cards there was no evidence to warrant a formal investigation by NSW police," she said.
However, NSW Police are sending the material to Victorian Police because the financial controls of the Health Services Union are conducted out of the Melbourne office.
Police in Victoria have told the ABC they are waiting for the referral from NSW, and will assess it before deciding what action should be taken.
Senator Brandis has told AM he does not owe Mr Thomson an apology.
"Not at all," he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-08/nsw-police-won27t-investigate-thomson/2875982