With La Nina back for another summer and above average rainfall predicted for much of Australia, the weather is about to become more of a pain than people realise.

The notion of rain pain is often dismissed as a myth, but experts say there is now enough evidence to suggest it exists.

What's more, they say sufferers of conditions like arthritis and chronic pain can actually use their level of discomfort to tell when the weather is about to change.

La Nina was responsible for the Brisbane floods and Cyclone Yasi, and the Bureau of Meteorology says Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria in particular should brace for another wet summer.

Dr Graeme Jones, professor of rheumatology and epidemiology at the Menzies Research Institute, says the days of mythical rain pain are long gone.

He says arthritis sufferers' pain levels are without a doubt affected by the weather.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-14/australians-set-for-summer-of-rain-pain/3660966

UN scientists forecast more severe droughts, cyclones and floods

Marlowe Hood

"If disasters occur more frequently and/or with greater magnitude, some local areas will become increasingly marginal as places to live" ... a report by United Nations climate scientists says.

PARIS: Southern Europe will be gripped by fierce heatwaves, drought in North Africa will be more common, and small island states face ruinous storm surges from rising seas, a report by United Nations climate scientists says.

The assessment is the most comprehensive yet by the 194-nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change into the impact of climate change on extreme weather events.

A 20-page draft ''summary for policymakers'' says that global warming will create weather on steroids, and that these amped-up events - cyclones, heatwaves, diluvian rains, drought - will hit the world unevenly.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/un-scientists-forecast-more-severe-droughts-cyclones-and-floods-20111113-1ndu0.html#ixzz1dd97EHOf

Britain's native trees are producing ripe fruit, on average, 18 days earlier than a decade ago, probably as a result of climatic shifts, a study reveals.

It shows that acorns are ripening 13 days earlier, while rowan berries are ready to eat nearly a month earlier.

Experts warn that one consequence could be that animals' food reserves would become depleted earlier in the winter.

The findings were published by Nature's Calendar, a data collection network co-ordinated by the Woodland Trust.

"Some of the changes are really quite big and quite surprising," explained Tim Sparks, the trust's nature adviser.

"This caused me to go back and look at the data again to make sure it was valid because even I did not believe it initially."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15721263

THIMPU) — The Kingdom of Bhutan, tucked between India and China in the foothills of the Himalaya mountain range, is paying the price for global industrialization. To the north of the country, a chain of Himalayan glaciers are rapidly retreating — by between 20 and 30 meters per year. Experts blame climate change and predict that by 2035, the glaciers could be gone altogether.

Water flows from these melting glaciers until it breaks the natural ice dams that hold it in place. That, in turn, can result in devastating floods like the one that occurred in 1994, when a torrent of mud killed dozens of people in Bhutan and wiped out entire villages. Western scientists call this phenomenon a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF. With 24 of its 2,674 glacial lakes considered unstable, Bhutan is preparing in the coming years for even deadlier "mountain tsunamis," as the phenomenon is sometimes referred to.

Bhutan is one of the first countries in the world to make GLOF prevention a national priority. In 2005, the government received environmental protection funds financed in part by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The money was earmarked in part to help Bhutan drain water from the Thorthormi glacial lake and reinforce its natural dams. But at that high altitude, the work is difficult, dangerous and ultimately costly.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2098960,00.html#ixzz1dqX1B5gv

see picture and story at top

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/11/2011111410635906623.html


RJ: Thinking about that need for clarity, one last question: As an environmentalist, you can't ignore the stark reality of the data about our ecological crises. As a historian, you can't ignore the record of human successes and failures. When you weigh all that up, what advice do you have for how we should face the future? Many people find it hard to face the changes that are likely coming, which I once heard you describe as "dramatic and potentially highly unpleasant". Are we facing "the fire next time"? Is there a way out of the trap we've set for ourselves?

AW: I don't know if there is a way out, but we have to try. My own expectations are pessimistic because I don't see enough people having sufficient awareness, understanding and determination to bring about the major changes we need.

And of course, contradicting what I just said, we don't really have to try. We only really have to try if we want to maintain our self-respect. If we want to stumble forward drunk while whistling in the dark, we could choose that.
I maintain a certain faith that many people are going to make the right choices, and we can hope that is enough. I think Gramsci had it right when he said that he lived with "pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will". And you have to take that seriously from a guy who wrote while in prison for his political beliefs.

Robert Jensen is a professor at the School of Journalism at the University of Texas, Austin. His latest book is titled, All My Bones Shake: Seeking a Progressive Path to the Prophetic Voice.

An increase in heat waves is almost certain, while heavier rainfall, more floods, stronger cyclones, landslides and more intense droughts are likely across the globe this century as the Earth's climate warms, UN scientists say.

In a report released in Uganda on Friday, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged countries to make disaster management plans to adapt to the growing risk of extreme weather linked to human-induced climate change.

The report gives differing probabilities for weather events based on future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, but the thrust is that extreme weather is likely to increase and that the likely cause is humans.

The IPCC defines "likely" as a 66-100 per cent probability, while "virtually certain" is 99-100 per cent.

"It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes ... will occur in the 21st century on the global scale," the IPCC report said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-19/extreme-weather-to-worsen-with-climate-change/3681686

Hundreds of properties have been cut off by floodwaters around Moree in north-western New South Wales, with towns further south soon to face the same fate.

The State Emergency Service says up to 300 properties in and around Moree could remain isolated for several days with water levels predicted to reach seven metres on Tuesday.

SES regional controller Steve Martin says about six properties in low-lying areas have been inundated and hundreds of volunteers are trying to protect other properties with sand bagging.

"I've just flown over the area in the chopper and it's very extensive the amount of flooding," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-27/floodwaters-isolate-hundreds-of-nsw-properties/3697722

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Despite quite a lot of "cold rainy" days, it's likely that November 2011 will be around 2 degrees C above average in Sydney...

An intense anticyclone over north-west Russia is behind the bitterly cold easterly winds that have swept across Europe and some climate scientists say the lack of Arctic sea ice brought about by global warming is responsible.

"The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming," said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html

The same reason could be given for the rotten weather that has plagued Sydney's summer... and more (record) floods in Southern Queensland and northern New South Wales...