Some people are paid to forecast. Their job is to make assertions about the future, assessing likelihood over a spectrum of certainty. When a scientist says this or that "will happen", we expect it to have greater credence than if he had merely gazed into the entrails of a sacred goose.

The worst offenders are meteorologists. A Devon entrepreneur, Rick Turner, declared last month that he would sue the Met Office for inaccurate and "persistently pessimistic" forecasts, which had cost his region millions of pounds in lost revenue. I hope he wins. The gloomy Met Office, seemingly in the pay of the outbound tourism trade, is reckless with other's people's livelihoods. The weather on the Welsh coast this summer was not ideal, but it bore not the slightest resemblance to the daily "forecast" of it on the radio. The sun shone for far more hours than it rained, yet the forecast kept people away in droves. And there was never any hint of correction or apology.

Prediction matters to people. If the variables are too great, science should shut up, rather than peddle spurious expertise. But you can wave a banknote in a pundit's face and he will predict anything you like. Of course, it is outrageous to jail scientists for honest errors, but it is not outrageous to hold them to some account. When did Lord May's Royal Society last inquire into a scientific scandal? Journalists, like bankers, are getting hell these days for their mistakes. Why let seismologists off the hook?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/25/italy-earthquake-laquila-banknote-predict

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Gus: that's a lot of codswallop... Total crap... big con... wrong wrong wrong... Bankers making mistakes? Journalists making mistakes? Mostly deliberate misinformation and twiddledumations... In the case of the Italian earthquake scientists, they were correct in assuming the small tremors beforehand would release some of the subsurface tensions... This is the case day after day after day IN GENERAL (relatively)... When there is no tremors in the pacific rim for a few days, often there will be a mighty tremor somewhere after that. No-one can predict where or when an earthquake is going to strike next, though in fifty years time we might know enough of the patterns below to have a more accurate sense of this...

The Frankeinstorm is another case of probability... Within three days, hurricane expert can only predict a widening path and assume on previous recording what COULD happen. Presently a diminishing hurricane is about to collide with a HUGE cold front that has been pouring torrential rains (see green bits on map) along its path...  

Not so strangely enough for those who know Chaos Theory and Lagrangian mathematical equations, it's easier to predict global warming in 100 years than the weather in three days time. Climate change is the sum total of variations in a "chaotic" system with known limits and historical values. Thus any serious scientists doing data collecting, historically and globally on this subject would be shitting in their pants...

As people from North Carolina to Cape Cod scrambled to prepare, Sandy’s speed had declined to 75 miles per hour, making it possible that it would lose its status as a tropical storm or hurricane.

But meteorologists said Sandy could still uncoil with the force of a hurricane, as it merges with a jet stream and a nor’easter, triggering what is likely to be several days of destruction on its northern path through eight states.

Two weather forecasting models have agreed that the storm likely will reach shore somewhere between the Delmarva Peninsula and Rhode Island. And it is no longer a question of whether the Washington region will get hit, but of how badly.

“At this point there are essentially two scenarios for the area: a worst case scenario (less likely) and a very bad scenario (more likely) — but the differences between the scenarios are not significant for most of us,” according to Jason Samenow, meteorologist with The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang.

Samenow said the worst of the storm is expected to hit Monday into Tuesday, bring 3 to 6 inches of rain and winds of 25 to 45 mph. If the storm makes landfall north of the District, there could be major coastal flooding for Maryland and Delaware beaches but less damaging winds. If the region takes a direct hit, Samenow said “historic coastal flooding” could occur along the beaches. The region could also see hurricane force wind gusts over a 48 hour period, he said.

As Saturday’s bright sun and warm temperatures made the prospect of an epic storm more difficult to imagine, rain was still forecast for Sunday, a lead up for Sandy’s arrival.

The governors of Maryland and Virginia already have declared states of emergency, as has District Mayor Vincent Gray. Flood watches were issued in the District, as well as in Anne Arundel, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, St. Mary’s, Arlington and Falls Church counties. A coastal flood watch was issued for all of Maryland’s beaches, as well as Virginia Beach.

read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/hurricane-sandy-still-on-track-to-deliver-a-major-blow/2012/10/27/e30aaae8-204d-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_print.html

Meanwhile in Vietnam:

Typhoon Son-tinh is forecast to strike Vietnam at about 00:00 GMT on 28 October.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfall will be near18.6 N,107.0 E.Son-tinh is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 157 km/h (97 mph).Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofSon-tinh'sstrength (category 2)at landfall includes:

• Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
• Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
• Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
• Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
• Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/typhoon-son-tinh-is-forecast-to-strike-vietnam-at-about-0000-gmt-on-28-october/

Hurricane Sandy marches north toward Mid-Atlantic coastBy Paul Schwartzman, Ann E. Marimow and Annie Gowen, Updated: Monday, October 29,7:00 AM

A hurricane of enormous force continued to march north Sunday, ready to hammer the Washington region sometime on Monday and disrupt life for millions as it sweeps across eight states toward Canada.

From North Carolina to the coastal edges of Maine, public officials are urging residents to fortify themselves against Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to unleash torrential rains and damaging winds of up to 75 mph, even for those residing as far as 100 miles from the storm’s center.

The storm was already having an impact on Sunday for school children and politics, with officials cancelling early voting for Monday in Maryland and closing schools throughout the Washington region.

“This is a serious, killer storm,” Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (D) said in an afternoon news conference. He urged residents to hunker down and prepare for what he and other officials expect to be extended days of power outages.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/hurricane-sandy-marches-north-toward-mid-atlantic-coast/2012/10/28/af5af5f0-2114-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_print.html

The Coast Guard is searching for two people off the coast of North Carolina who had been passengers aboard the tall ship HMS Bounty, which lost power in Hurricane Sandy and sank after 14 other passengers were rescued.

The Coast Guard said that a C-130 Hercules aircraft and a MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter are still scouring the waters for the two missing people, who did not make it aboard lifeboats about 90 miles off Hatteras, N.C., on the Outer Banks. As of late Monday morning, the Coast Guard had not completed its interviews with the 14 survivors, and had not identified the missing people.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/tall-ship-hms-bounty-sinks-off-nc-coast-two-still-missing/2012/10/29/d276daf8-21d8-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_story.html?tid=pm_pop

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This unseen of before type of tropical storm, which I have tracked since it was a baby in the Caribbean, is behaving a bit as if global warming (a real long term anthropogenic event) was trying to tell the US, LOOK, I EXIST...

Gus' picture — January 26, 1980s (1988?)... The Bounty in Sydney

By about 3 a.m., the Bounty’s once-optimistic Facebook page, which on Sunday had posted “So far so good!” in its daily updates, had issued a new message for its followers: “Your Prayers are needed.”

Ninety minutes later, the Bounty finally lost its battle with 40 mph winds and 18-foot seas. Its captain ordered all hands to abandon the sinking ship, a shocking demise for a celebrity vessel built for the 1962 film “Mutiny on the Bounty.”

The ship, which had been trying to make its way around Hurricane Sandy, carried a crew of 16. When the rescue operation ended about 10 a.m. Monday, 14 of the crew members had been saved by Coast Guard helicopters. Two people, Capt. Robin Walbridge, 63, and Claudene Christian, 42, were missing.

Christian’s body was recovered Monday night, but Walbridge remained unaccounted for.

The HMS Bounty, owned by New York businessman Robert Hansen, began its journey Thursday, departing from New London, Conn., for St. Petersburg, Fla., where the ship has docked for years. In addition to its star turns in the 2006 “Pirates of the Caribbean” sequel and other Hollywood movies, the ship was used to teach the “nearly lost arts of square rigged sailing and seamanship,” its Web site said. It also offered sailing, teamwork and leadership classes for the general public.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/tall-ship-hms-bounty-sinks-off-nc-coast-two-still-missing/2012/10/29/d276daf8-21d8-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_print.html

Our thoughts are with you...

A Big Storm Requires Big Government

Most Americans have never heard of the National Response Coordination Center, but they’re lucky it exists on days of lethal winds and flood tides. The center is the war room of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, where officials gather to decide where rescuers should go, where drinking water should be shipped, and how to assist hospitals that have to evacuate.

Disaster coordination is one of the most vital functions of “big government,” which is why Mitt Romney wants to eliminate it. At a Republican primary debate last year, Mr. Romney was asked whether emergency management was a function that should be returned to the states. He not only agreed, he went further.

“Absolutely,” he said. “Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that’s the right direction. And if you can go even further and send it back to the private sector, that’s even better.” Mr. Romney not only believes that states acting independently can handle the response to a vast East Coast storm better than Washington, but that profit-making companies can do an even better job. He said it was “immoral” for the federal government to do all these things if it means increasing the debt.

It’s an absurd notion, but it’s fully in line with decades of Republican resistance to federal emergency planning. FEMA, created by President Jimmy Carter, was elevated to cabinet rank in the Bill Clinton administration, but was then demoted by President George W. Bush, who neglected it, subsumed it into the Department of Homeland Security, and placed it in the control of political hacks. The disaster of Hurricane Katrina was just waiting to happen.      

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/opinion/a-big-storm-requires-big-government.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1351570243-KffuSz3ekD4gYcAe0TguIA&pagewanted=print&_r=0 

Cuban President Raul Castro says the eastern province of Santiago was "hard hit" by Hurricane Sandy.

Eleven people died and more than 188,000 homes were damaged as the storm passed over Cuba last week.

President Castro said Cuba's second largest city, Santiago, looked like it had been bombed.

He urged those affected not to lose hope and said that no one would be left destitute, but that the government would have to weigh up each case.

"We'll get over this, you're fighting people, we've known that for more than fifty years," he told residents of Santiago on a tour of the worst affected areas.

"The reality is much worse than what you can see in the pictures or on TV," President Castro said.

A United Nations report says that Sandy destroyed almost 100,000 hectares (245,000 acres) of crops in eastern Cuba.

"Sugar cane was the single hardest hit followed by plantain and bananas," the report says.

Vice-President Jose Ramon Machado said one of the biggest problems facing the government was guaranteeing food supplies for the people in the affected areas in the the coming months.

Cuba does not produce enough food to feed its population and spends large amounts of money on importing food.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-20166773

More weather misery for Sandy’s victims as new storm bears down on New York City, NJ, NEBy Associated Press, Updated: Thursday, November 8, 7:46 PM

NEW YORK — The nor’easter, as promised, brought gusting winds, rain, snow and the threat of flooding. It menaced travelers with icy roads, snarled the Long Island Rail Road and knocked out power to people who had only recently gotten it back after Superstorm Sandy.

But for the weary, relief is on the way. Joey Picca, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, says the unwelcome snow and high winds are slowly moving out of the New York City area. Commuters, though, may have to brave some lingering snowfall Thursday morning.

Faced with more bad weather, some in the storm-ravaged Northeast just shrugged, dug in and stayed put.

Elena McDonnell didn’t waste energy worrying about the newest storm, not after living through Sandy last week and still without power in her Staten Island home.

“It isn’t scary at all,” the 42-year-old said. “This is nothing.”

Under ordinary circumstances, a storm of this sort wouldn’t be a big deal. But large swaths of the landscape were still an open wound, with the electrical system highly fragile and many of Sandy’s victims still mucking out their homes and cars and shivering in the deepening cold. As the storm picked up in intensity Wednesday evening, lights started flickering off again.

Mark L. Fendrick, of Staten Island, shared his frustration with others on Twitter Wednesday night, saying, “My son had just got his power back 2 days ago now along comes this nor’easter and it’s out again.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/new-storm-bears-down-on-battered-new-york-city-nj-more-misery-in-sight-for-sandys-victims/2012/11/07/94353aec-2939-11e2-aaa5-ac786110c486_story.html

The United States Senate has approved a $US60.4 billion aid package to pay for reconstruction costs from Superstorm Sandy, after defeating Republican efforts to trim the bill's cost.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid urged the Republican-controlled House of Representatives to quickly take up the bill.

Both chambers have to agreed on a package by January 2, when the current term of Congress is expected to end, or restart the process of crafting legislation in 2013.

"We beat back all of the crippling amendments," said Senator Charles Schumer, a Democrat from New York, which suffered the largest monetary damage in the storm.

"The century-old tradition of different parts of the country rallying to help those who are beleaguered because of difficult natural disasters continues."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-29/us-senate-approves-superstorm-sandy-aid/4447062