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The US diplomat George Kennan, an astute observer of Soviet Russia under Stalin, offered his observations later in life on the question of NATO expansion. The tragedy of our times is that those views are being ignored.

Winston Churchill once famously quipped that the “Americans will always do the right thing, but only after all other possibilities are exhausted.” That bit of dry British humor cuts to the heart of the current crisis in Ukraine, which is loaded with enough geopolitical dynamite to bring down a sizable chunk of the neighborhood. Yet, had the West taken the advice of one of its leading statesmen with regards to reckless military expansion toward Russia, the world would be a more peaceful and predictable place today.

George Kennan is perhaps best known as the US diplomat and historian who composed on February 22, 1946 the ‘Long Telegram’, a 5,400-word cable dispatched from the US embassy in Moscow to Washington that advised on the peaceful “containment” of the Soviet Union. That stroke of analytical brilliance, which Henry Kissinger hailed as “the diplomatic doctrine of his era,” provided the intellectual groundwork for grappling with the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin as ultimately enshrined in the ‘Truman Doctrine’.

Inside the fetid corridors of power, however, where the more hawkish Dean Acheson had replaced the ailing George Marshall in 1949 as secretary of state, Kennan and his more temperate views on how to deal with capitalism’s arch rival had already passed its expiration date. Such is the fickleness of fate, where the arrival of a single new actor on the global stage can alter the course of history’s river forever. Thus, having lost his influence with the Truman administration, Kennan eventually began teaching at the Institute for Advanced Study, where he remained until his death in 2005. Just because George Kennan was no longer with the State Department, however, didn’t mean that he stopped ruffling the feathers of predators.

In 1997, with Washington elves hard at work on a NATO membership drive for Central Europe, particularly those countries that once formed the core of the Soviet-era Warsaw Pact, Kennan pulled the alarm. Writing in the pages of the New York Times, he warned that ongoing NATO expansion toward Russia “would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.”

Particularly perplexing to the former diplomat was that the US and its allies were expanding the military bloc at a time when Russia, then experiencing the severe birth pains of capitalism atop the smoldering ruins of communism, posed no threat to anyone aside from itself.

“It is … unfortunate that Russia should be confronted with such a challenge at a time when its executive power is in a state of high uncertainty and near-paralysis,” Kennan wrote.

He went on to express his frustration that, despite all of the “hopeful possibilities engendered by the end of the cold war,” relations between East and West are becoming predicated on the question of“who would be allied with whom” in some “improbable future military conflict.”

In other words, had Western dream weavers just let things work themselves out naturally, Russia and the West would have found the will and the way to live side-by-side in relative harmony. One example of such mutual cooperation is evident by the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a bilateral project between Moscow and Berlin that hinges on trust and goodwill above all. Who needs to travel around the world for war booty when capitalism offers more than enough opportunities for elitist pillage right at home? Yet the United States, having snorted from the mirror of power for so long, will never be satisfied with the spectacle of Russians and Europeans playing nice together.

As for the Russians, Kennan continued, they would be forced to accept NATO’s program of expansionism as a “military fait accompli,” thereby finding it imperative to search elsewhere for “guarantees of a secure and hopeful future for themselves.”

Needless to say, Kennan’s warnings fell on deaf ears. On March 12, 1999, then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, an acolyte of geopolitical guru and ultimate Russophobe Zbigniew Brzezinski, formally welcomed the former Warsaw Pact countries of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into the NATO fold. Since 1949, NATO has grown from its original 12 members to thirty, two of which share a border with Russia in the Baltic States of Estonian and Latvia, which has been the site of massive NATO military exercises in the past.

So while it is impossible to say how things would be different between Russia and the West had the US heeded Kennan’s sage advice, it’s a good bet the world wouldn’t be perched on the precipice of a regional war over Ukraine, which has become a center of a standoff between Moscow and NATO.

Russia certainly does not feel more secure as NATO hardware moves inexorably toward its border. Vladimir Putin let these sentiments be known 15 years ago during the Munich Security Conference when he told the assembled attendees: “I think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernization of the Alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended?”

Today, with Kiev actively pursuing NATO membership for Ukraine, and the West stubbornly refusing to acknowledge Moscow’s declared ‘red lines’, outlined in two draft treaties sent to Washington and NATO in December, the situation looks grim. What the West must understand, however, is that Russia is no longer the special needs country it was just 20 years ago. It has the ability – diplomatic or otherwise – to address the perceived threats on its territory. There has even been talk of Russia, taking its cue from NATO’s reckless expansion in Europe, building military alliances in South America and the Caribbean.

Last month, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reported that President Putin had spoken with the leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, for the purpose of stepping up collaboration in a range of areas, including military matters.

With each passing day it is becoming more apparent that had Kennan’s more realistic vision of regional cooperation been accepted, the world would not find itself at such a dangerous crossroads today. Fortunately, there is still time to reconsider the advice of America’s brilliant diplomat if it is peace that Washington truly desires. 

 

READ MORE:

https://www.rt.com/news/550215-us-nato-expansion-kennan/

 

 

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*Heading stolen from Ma Leonisky

US presidents are crooks...

 

rising tensions...

RISING TENSIONS (7)

 

Washington sounds the alarm, while its allies withdraw

 

by Thierry Meyssan  

The Biden Administration is sounding the alarm, announcing the imminent attack and the certain defeat of Russia. However, one by one, its main allies are pouting. For its part, Russia recalls its demands of December 17, 2021 (the respect of international law by the United States) and demonstrates its military superiority. The veil is about to be torn.

 

This article is a follow-up to : 
 1. "Russia wants to force the US to respect the UN Charter," January 4, 2022. 
 2. "Washington pursues RAND plan in Kazakhstan, then Transnistria," January 11, 2022. 
 3. "Washington refuses to hear Russia and China," January 18, 2022. 
 4. "Washington and London, deafened", February 1, 2022. 
 5. "Washington and London try to preserve their domination over Europe", February 8, 2022. 
 6. “Two interpretations of the Ukrainian affair”, 16 February 2022.

In the forefront, the United States, which still refuses to respect international law and especially the United Nations Charter, has given dilatory answers to the Russian proposal for a treaty guaranteeing peace and is escalating tensions in Ukraine. They have raised the tension by accusing Russia of preparing for war. Behind the scenes, Washington is preparing new theaters of confrontation in Transnistria and the Middle East.

Russia has denied the US statements. As a response, it tested its military superiority.

 

TRANSNISTRIA

The United States is pursuing the Rand Corporation’s plan and trying to organize a conflict in Transnistria. The blockade of this small, independent but unrecognized republic is not working. Despite the Ukrainian border guards put in place by the European Union’s High Representative, Josep Borell, the Moldovan border remains open. President Maia Sandu, who is campaigning for her country’s entry into the European Union, does not want a war in Transnistria. She intends to replace the Russian contingent in Tiraspol with an OSCE civilian force and is not giving up on recovering Transnistria.

On Saturday, February 12, the Transnistrian authorities asked the U.S. chargé d’affaires to ensure that the shipment of U.S. weapons by third states to Moldova is stopped. They stressed that such transfers threaten peace and contradict the spirit of international agreements.

On Wednesday, February 16, a Transnistrian delegation went to Moscow to seek help. It argued that the opening of the Moldovan border would not hold for much longer: the Moldovan army, supervised by Pentagon and European Union officers, is deploying in the neutral zone, in violation of international commitments.

On Friday, February 18. a Moldovan-Transnistrian meeting ("1+1") was held in Tiraspol in the offices of the OSCE. The negotiations were only about details. It is no longer possible to drive a vehicle out of Transnistria: its license plate bears symbols of secession. Each driver must therefore change his plate at the border. Similarly, it is no longer possible to enter Transnistria with medicines, even emergency medicines, without any explanation. All medicines are seized by Moldovan customs in the presence of EU officials.

 

SYRIA AND LEBANON

It is especially in Syria and Lebanon that tensions are rising. Since late October, the United States and Turkey have been recruiting jihadists again from among those who have settled in their custody in Idleb. Some have been sent to Ukraine, but most have been hired for renewed service against Syria and against Lebanese Hezbollah. However, most of them are known to be bad fighters except for those who remain affiliated with al-Qaeda or Daesh.

To structure these soldiers, the CIA organized an attack on a prison in Hassake in which Kurdish mercenaries were holding 3,500 Daesh members. The Kurds lent themselves to the staging, using the opportunity to declare that they needed more weapons and US support to hold their prisoners. Most of the jihadists ran away and joined the CIA. Then, the US army, this time, transferred the few Daesh leaders that the Kurds had recovered to another prison, in an unknown location, where... the CIA was waiting for them. So appearances are safe, but the reality is that the US is reorganizing Daesh.

 

The reorganization of al-Qaeda has become more visible. Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of al-Qaeda in Syria and later emir of Tahrir al-Sham, has given himself a makeover. The British have taught him to wear a Western suit and to speak without threatening to cut off the heads of those who resist him. But he is still the leader of al-Qaeda in Syria.

It is in this context that the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, visited Damascus on February 15 and that his counterpart of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, is expected there on Monday February 21.

Already Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, confirmed to Al-Alam TV that his network of resistance has acquired anti-aircraft means to protect Lebanon from the Israeli air force that violates its airspace every day. In addition, Hezbollah revealed that it had sent a drone for a long time over Israel without being shot down by its army. Shortly before, the Syrian and Russian air forces had begun patrols over the Syrian Golan Heights illegally occupied by Israel, without Tel Aviv reacting.

 

UKRAINE

To fully understand what is happening in Ukraine, we need to go back a few days. On February 11, President Joe Biden summoned his key allies to a video meeting. He told them of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that the intelligence community was predicting it on the night of the 15th to the 16th. Then President Biden addressed his fellow citizens on television. He told them that if Russia attacked, it would cost them, and that the United States and its allies were ready.

Even before he spoke, Russia had announced that it was withdrawing its troops from Belarus and the Ukrainian border, and that its military exercises were over, but Washington had not had time to check. Moscow claimed that NATO elements were preparing a provocation, which the Pentagon had accused Russia of a few weeks earlier. In any case, it became difficult for the Allies to accuse Moscow of invading Ukraine.

On February 15, the Federal Duma adopted a resolution introduced by the Communist Party (i.e., the nationalists) asking President Putin to recognize the independence of the two People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. In other words, if Ukraine were to take advantage of the Russian military withdrawal to attack Donbass, Russia would recognize its independence and be forced to intervene because its constitution states that its president is responsible for the lives of his fellow citizens. However, the majority of the inhabitants of Donbass have a triple nationality: Ukrainian, independence and Russian.

The same day, President Putin received the German Chancellor, Olaf Schlotz. As with French President Emmanuel Macron, the meeting was particularly long. It seems that the Russian detailed to his visitor the arrival of the Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland in the Kremlin. Interloqued by what he learned, the chancellor, like the French president, refrained from making any anti-Russian statements on his return to Berlin. The same scenario was repeated on February 19 with the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro.

On the night of 15-16, the Russian army did not invade any state. The US press asked National Security Advisor Jake Sulivan to explain why he had put forward such a date, but he backed down and said he had never given a date.

Unexpectedly, Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to the UN Security Council on February 17. He accused Russia of "persistent violations" of the Minsk agreements, even though it is Kiev that rejects them. He said he was intervening to defend "the international order based on rules that preserve stability in the world", i.e. not international law, but the law of the West. He then revealed the Kremlin’s hidden plan: "Russia is planning to fabricate a pretext for its attack. It could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an aberrant accusation that Russia will make against the Ukrainian government. We don’t know exactly what form that will take. It could be a so-called "terrorist" bombing inside Russia, the alleged discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake - or even real - chemical weapons attack. It is possible that Russia will call this event ethnic cleansing or genocide, and disregard a concept that we do not take lightly in this forum, and that I do not take lightly because of my family’s past.

 

By this incidence, Antony Blinken was referring to his stepfather, Samuel Pisar, who raised him in Paris. The latter was a survivor of the "Final Solution of the Jewish Question. But he did conceive hatred from this, only an acute awareness of evil. He became an advisor to President Kennedy, then an international lawyer for the largest corporations. He was revolted by the words of Professor Leo Strauss, who said that it was essential for the Jewish people to establish a world dictatorship in order to avoid a "new Shoah". Surely Samuel Pisar would be appalled at the evolution of his son-in-law and the group he has formed with his deputy Victoria Nuland and National Security Advisor Jacob Sullivan.

The OSCE confirms that fighting has resumed in Donbass. Elements of the Ukrainian army under US supervision, probably the Azov battalion and another group, are shelling the separatists. The presidents of the two independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk have called on their citizens to mobilize, if they are men between 18 and 55 years old, or to seek refuge abroad, for women, children and the elderly living near the military contact line. Russia has declared its willingness to accept all of them. Each region of the Federation has announced that it will create structures to receive them one after the other. The federal government is offering them a small sum of money for their temporary settlement.

For the State Department, which has ordered its nationals to leave Ukraine, this population displacement is proof that Moscow is going on the offensive... Both parties interpret each piece of information in a contradictory manner.

Refusing to take sides in this conflict, Israel has given up installing an "Iron Dome" (anti-rocket defense) on behalf of Kiev against the Donbass.

 

On February 18, President Biden spoke to U.S. congressmen and his vice-president who were representing their country at the Munich Security Conference. He then called his main transatlantic allies together again via videoconference. He congratulated himself on delaying the Russian attack and accused Moscow of persisting in its plans. He said that all the Allies were ready and that Russia, if it took action, would see what it would see.

President Putin responded by ordering a demonstration of the Federation’s nuclear forces. Several missiles of different ranges were fired from the ground, a submarine, surface ships and aircraft. They were conventionally loaded and all hit their targets in the presence of foreign observers, including a US officer.

The United States is escalating the tension with words, Russia with deeds. In this regard, let us repeat once again that the US armies are not capable of waging a high-intensity war. If they manage to destroy Third World countries without any problem after having placed them under embargo for at least a decade, they are not at all prepared to confront a modern army. Its main allies (the United Kingdom, France and Turkey) are in the same state. As an example, on February 16, a report was presented in Paris to the Commission de la défense nationale et des forces armées on the decay of the French army. The deputies noted that given the state of its equipment, the French Air Force could not withstand the Russian forces for more than five days. It is therefore clear to all the protagonists that Nato is in no position to wage war against Russia and China.

To everyone’s surprise, the United States did not manage to impose a martial atmosphere in Munich. The Europeans were rather irritated by the very strong pressure from the White House. When he spoke, Chancellor Scholtz spoke in a monotone voice, taking care not to say anything compromising. Everyone in the room knew that an investigation into a sordid affair in which he had been involved during his tenure as mayor of Hamburg had been strangely revived. Many imagined that he was being blackmailed. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, whom the White House had tried to dissuade from coming, was the object of all attention. He kept calling for help, not so much from Moscow as from Washington.

 

TENTATIVE CONCLUSION

A confrontation is always possible in Ukraine, or tomorrow in Transnistria or the Middle East. But it does not answer the initial question, posed by the Kremlin on December 17, 2021: how can the United States comply with international law and respect its word?

For the first time, two major German media, Der Spiegel [1]and Die Welt [2], have shown that Russia is right about the ban on Nato’s expansion beyond East Germany. Quoting a well-known expert on the issue, Assistant Professor Joshua Shifrinson of Boston University, the media revealed the existence of a document dated March 6, 1991, which had just come out of the secret archives of the UK. In it, the German representative states, "We cannot propose to Poland and other countries to join NATO," and the U.S. representative stresses that the Alliance should not expand eastward, either "formally or informally. As if that were not enough, the former German Secretary of State for Defense and former vice-president of the OSCE, Willy Wimmer, gave an interview to Russia Today, which was immediately translated into English and broadcast in the USA before being broadcast in Germany [3]. In the interview, he testified that he had participated in the negotiations on German reunification and that he himself had drafted the Additional Protocol prohibiting Nato forces from being stationed on the territory of the former East Germany after reunification had taken place.

The question arises: why is the Biden administration, which is not supported by its allies, continuing and amplifying its accusations against Russia at the risk of provoking an explosion? Perhaps the ongoing investigation in the United States by Special Prosecutor John Durnham into the White House wiretapping affair is precipitating matters. According to Fox News [4], the prosecutor suspects that Hillary Clinton spied on President Donald Trump at the White House and at his home by intercepting all of his Internet browsing data. This operation would have been organized by her foreign policy advisor, "Jake" Sullivan, current National Security Advisor. It is on the basis of these illegally intercepted and manipulated data that Congress opened an impeachment procedure, RussiaGate.

 Thierry Meyssan Translation 
Roger Lagassé

 

READ MORE:

https://www.voltairenet.org/article215762.html

 

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GusNOTE: The western media under the lead of the US administration are not smart and all they can say is: "The ruskies are coming! The ruskies are coming!" The proper analysis of the situation will NEVER be shown on the "emotional" Western media. This exposure of reality/truth would go against Washington's wishes to DESTROY RUSSIA. 

 

of fear...

 

By Stan Grant

...

 

It is shocking to many that international law is not actually law, Petallides says. But, he argues, it represents the best aspirations of humanity. It is worth pursuing stronger enforcement and holding countries to account.

But for now, Vladimir Putin, as other nations have done, can flout law and create his own pretext for military action.

Putin is showing that the world is not determined by law but too often by power. He has challenged the power of the US and NATO. 

Russia analyst Alexey Muraviev, on ABC News, said simply that Putin has already won. Perhaps. He will still pay a price with severe sanctions. And it is unclear where this all ends.

Invasion, incursion, operation? Words matter less than deeds.

Here is another word: Suffering. Suffering for those caught in the crossfire. Of that we can be certain.

 

Stan Grant is the ABC's international affairs analyst and presents China Tonight on Monday at 9:35pm on ABC TV, and Tuesday at 8pm on the ABC News Channel.

 

Gus: Yes, Stan, but so far, in Ukraine there has been very little crossfire... VERY LITTLE, including the assassination of one of the new republic's leaders (Prime Minister) a few years ago (2018). Unlike G W Bush, Putin can claim "mission accomplished' with the minimalest amount of blood shed. The only thing that's crapping in the pants of the Ukrainians is FEAR OF BLOODSHED...:

 

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he recognized the independence of the two Donbass republics the day prior because the Minsk Protocol for peace in the region had been “killed” by Kiev’s inaction.

On Tuesday, the party Opposition Platform - For Life issued a statement calling on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to resign. The centrist opposition party has 44 seats in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, and opposes the decommunization and Ukrainization policies of the post-2014 nationalist coup government.

 

“The situation that is now developing around the Donbass is a terrible result of the inactivity and lack of will of the authorities. In the elections, two-thirds of Ukrainian voters voted for peace, the return of Ukraine to Donbass and Donbass to Ukraine. But the government, which had a huge credit of public trust, failed to cope with this task of national importance,” the statement reads.

 

“For two and a half years, despite the calls of Ukraine's foreign partners, the Ukrainian opposition, the demands of citizens, and Ukraine's international obligations, not a single step has been taken towards the implementation of the political part of the Minsk agreements, peace and unity,” the statement continues.

 

READ MORE:

https://sputniknews.com/20220223/ukrainian-opposition-party-demands-zelensky-resign-for-failure-to-return-donbass-to-kievs-control-1093285744.html

 

(YES, Ukraine is not a monolith...)

 

 

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FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW, STAN...

 

 

GusNOTE: There would not be a rabbit's fart worth of Gus, should he agree with the crap from Scott Morrison and Joe Biden. But being on the same page as Trump's "genius" can sometimes (often) be a worry... Trump is an idiot nonetheless, while Putin a smart guy. He knows the game being played and even if the West moves the goal posts in the night, he's on top of it. The only worry for him is that the US are so devious, he would be under PERSONAL threats daily, like Castro was. The US would try to get rid of him... You know what I mean... Play some Russian music now... From now on, Presidential meetings should only be virtual...