Friday 29th of November 2024
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on the way to destroy the world…...

The idea that war can be a source of national unity and national regeneration is one of the most dangerous in modern history. In 1914, it seduced a generation of European liberal intellectuals, many younger ones of whom paid for their illusions with their lives. In the interwar years, it formed the very core of Fascist and Nazi ideology.

One of the things that makes this idea so seductive is that it occasionally proves true. In Britain during World War II, the national unity government of Conservatives, Labor, and Liberals gave birth to the national consensus behind the British welfare state, which has lasted to this day. 

 

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More often, however, wars are used by endangered regimes precisely in order to strengthen repressive institutions and gain popular support in order to co-opt or crush opponents and block necessary change (as indeed Putin has done in Ukraine). Partly as a result, wars only briefly paper over national divisions, while strengthening ideologies of hatred and extremism.

As far as Western democracies and the war in Ukraine are concerned, the idea that they can achieve regeneration through this war may well seem absurd. For after all, they are not themselves doing the fighting, and they are not making more than limited economic sacrifices (so far). Yet so seductive is this illusion, and so desperate is the desire of Western liberals for some new impetus for essential domestic reform, that even a genuinely thoughtful observer like Francis Fukuyama has fallen victim to it, declaring that:

The war in Ukraine impacts the American people in the sense that, if Vladimir Putin succeeds, then such people here — those anti-democratic forces — will succeed as well…I can tell you what I hope could be a possible outcome [of the war], which is that Putin will be defeated pretty decisively. In turn, that will take the wind out of the sails of the global authoritarian populist movement that he is the leader of, and there will be a rebirth around the world of belief in liberal democracy.

This is, objectively speaking, nonsense. As Fukuyama himself has written elsewhere, the causes of democratic decay in America (and, in different but related forms, in Europe) are deeply rooted in domestic issues of identity politics, racism, migration, socio-economic inequality and political polarization that go back decades (or even centuries) before Putin came to power. None of these issues can be resolved by Russia’s defeat, and there is no sign whatsoever that the war in Ukraine is bringing about the reduction in domestic tensions necessary to resolve them. Nor will the outcome of the war in Ukraine affect in any way the deep and growing divisions in European democracies over issues of immigration and national integration.

Fukuyama has called for a set of steps to regenerate American democracy: a reduction in “identity politics” and cultural radicalism so as to build a new sense of common national citizenship; a strong stand against racism; reasonable compromises over immigration policy; agreement on the need for massive investment in infrastructure and technological development; commonly-agreed policies to reduce socio-economic inequality. He has warned of the dangers of an ossified and unreformable U.S. Constitution, and of the need to address the looming menace of climate change.

Has the war in Ukraine led to agreement on these issues between the U.S. political parties? Not at all. The single — all too familiar — area where war has triggered real unity in the United States and among Republicans and Democrats in Congress, is in allotting enormous sums of money to the Military Industrial Complex. U.S. military spending could be called a kind of national industrial development plan that dare not speak its name — at least openly in the presence of free market Republicans — but, if so, it is a plan of an unutterably wasteful, corrupt and misdirected kind.

The stampede of U.S. and European institutions into inherited and reassuring Cold War mode is a massive distraction from the truly existential threats to Western democracy. As Matt Duss, Sen. Bernie Sanders’ top foreign policy aide, has written:

The danger is that rather than develop a new paradigm for this era, policymakers will simply attempt to exhume an old “us versus them” Cold War model, shock it back to life, and put a tuxedo on it. As in the days after 9/11, a momentary sense of unity could be used to promote a set of tragically counterproductive policies.

The U.S. aid package to Ukraine and the increases in the Pentagon budgetput together represent a huge diversion of American resources from the kind of reforms that Fukuyama advocates: infrastructure renewal, action against climate change, and repairing the fraying social safety net. U.S. investments in alternative energy are also now being sidelined by the funds flowing into new oil and gas production to take advantage of global energy shortages caused by the war and Western sanctions.

Far from strengthening democracy, the war in Ukraine and confrontation with Russia are serving as convenient, colossal distractions from essential but horribly difficult domestic issues. How much easier and more comforting for the elites of Sweden, for example, to join NATO in the name of an alleged existential threat from Russia than it would be for them to address the agonizingly difficult issues of immigration, the rise in crime and other social problems, the growth of right wing extremism, and the elites’ own share of responsibility for these developments? 

Militarily speaking, the war in Ukraine is confined to Ukraine; and while it began as a Russian attempt to subjugate the whole of Ukraine, since the Russians were defeated outside Kyiv it has become a limited struggle for territory in the east and south of the country. It is a tragedy and a crime and of course a nightmare for the people of Ukraine. But it is not an existential struggle for global democracy.

As Daniel Larison has pointed out, authoritarian regimes are dividedbetween U.S. rivals and U.S. allies. This contributes to demolishing the argument by Fukuyama, Anne Applebaum, and others that Vladimir Putin somehow stands behind the rise of authoritarian populism worldwide. Does any serious person think that Putin contributed to the rise of Indian Prime Minister Modi or Egypt’s President Sisi? Or of Rodrigo Duterte and “Bongbong” Marcos in the Philippines? Or Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil? In Europe, one of the elected governments with the strongest chauvinist and authoritarian tendencies, that of Poland, is also the most bitterly anti-Russian.

The talk of the Ukraine war as an existential issue for Western democracies degrades the very meaning of the word “existential.” Among other things, it reduces the truly existential threat of climate change to a minor threat among a host of others — and that has indeed been the explicit desire of sectors within the Western security elites, for whom taking climate change seriously poses a threat to their jobs, their culture, and their entire traditional way of behaving and looking at the world.

But are our descendants a century from now really likely to think that in prioritizing the Donbas over climate change, our governments acted correctly to defend Western liberal democracy? This does not mean that the West should not support Ukraine. We should. But everyone who really values the health of Western democracy and desires essential reforms should also support every effort to bring about an early, just, and lasting peace — not seek to prolong this conflict in the name of a mythical struggle for global democracy.

 

READ MORE: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/05/23/the-delusion-of-a-global-democratic-rebirth-through-war/

 

 

 

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moving east….

Moscow expects increased economic cooperation with China as the West becomes more dictatorial, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday. Russia intends to build relations with independent countries and will decide how to deal with the West if and when it comes to its senses, he added.

“Now that the West is taking the position of a dictator, our economic ties with China will grow even faster,”Lavrov told students at the Primakov School, an elite Moscow high school named after one of his predecessors. 

“In addition to direct income to the treasury, this will give us the opportunity to implement plans for the development of the Far East and Eastern Siberia,” he added. “The majority of projects with China are concentrated there. This is an opportunity for us to realize our potential in the field of high technology, including nuclear energy, but also in a number of other areas.”

Lavrov’s remarks were made at the ‘100 Questions for the Leader’, a traditional event organized by the Moscow academy named after Evgeny Primakov, who served as foreign minister from 1996-98 and after that as prime minister.

Addressing the ongoing turmoil in Ukraine, Lavrov said that Moscow had tried to resolve the Donbass crisis by having Kiev implement the Minsk Protocol, but the West only pretended to care about the talks, and instead “encouraged the arrogant position of the Kiev regime.”

Now the West is “reacting furiously” to Russia defending its “absolutely legitimate, fundamental interests,” Lavrov said. Western leaders “chant spells”and declare they must “defeat Russia,” or make Russia “lose on the battlefield,” without understanding the history or nature of Russia, he added.

“They must have done poorly in school,” said Lavrov.  

“I am convinced this will eventually end. The West will eventually recognize reality on the ground. It will be forced to admit that it can’t constantly attack the vital interests of Russia – or Russians, wherever they live – with impunity,” he added.

If and when the West comes to its senses and wants to offer something in terms of resuming relations, Russia will “seriously consider whether we will need it or not,” the foreign minister told high-schoolers.

Moscow isn’t just implementing a strategy of import substitution in response to anti-Russian sanctions, but “must stop in any way being dependent on the supply of anything from the West” and rely on its own capabilities and those countries that have “proven their reliability” and act independently, Lavrov explained.

 

Read more:

https://www.rt.com/russia/555983-lavrov-russia-china-west/

 

 

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deliberate gaffes….

 

BY Ian Miles Cheong

 

All geopolitical considerations are being thrown out the window as US President Joe Biden’s gaffes and off-the-cuff comments at press conferences threaten to imperil geopolitical stability.

Speaking at a press conference in Tokyo on Monday, Biden’s failure to keep his words in check prompted outrage from China. While fielding questions from the press gallery, he was asked if he would involve the US military in a potential conflict with China in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

“Yes,” Biden said, “That’s the commitment we made.”

His remarks fly in the face of America’s longstanding policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan, which has allowed the US relationship with China to remain neutral, without any requirement for to come to Taiwan’s aid against China – militarily, at least.

The policy only provides Taiwan with a modicum of resources to defend itself, and was put in place through the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to prevent any change in status of the island by China.

Officially, the US does not recognize Taiwan’s bid for sovereignty and recognizes the Chinese government in Beijing as Taiwan’s official rulers, per China’s One-China policy.

Even as the American economy faces the risk of stagflation, the US under Biden has shown a willingness to blow fiscal budgets and pass massive spending bills in support of foreign interests. As detailed by the New York Times, the Biden administration has spent $54 billion in its support of Ukraine amid the conflict with Russia. 

What was once a rallying cry for liberals against Trump, who warned at every turn that the former president’s careless rhetoric risked starting World War III, has now become an almost-weekly occurrence with the present commander-in-chief.

Biden’s failure to keep his words in check has enraged China, which issued a prompt response, stating its “strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition” to his remarks, adding that “China has no room for compromise or concessions on issues involving China’s core interests such as sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

In an official statement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin warned that the country intends to take “firm action to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests, and we will do what we say.”

When China says it will do what it says, you better believe it.

Biden’s remarks risk undoing years of America’s official policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ for the sake of cheap talking points to appear tough in the face of numerous setbacks against Russia – especially as problems at home go unaddressed.

With the unending supply chain crisis, fallout from pandemic-era restrictions, and several new crises of his administration’s own making, such as the baby formula shortage, the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, mass illegal immigration at the southern border, and skyrocketing inflation, Biden has been reluctant to address any of the problems facing everyday Americans, preferring instead to turn his gaze outwards.

In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s engagement in Ukraine, the US issued a stern economic response, with Biden, at the time, bragging that “as a result of our unprecedented sanctions, the [Russian] ruble was almost immediately reduced to rubble.”

Contrary to his expectations, the ruble is vastly outperforming every other currency on the market, which is facing a downturn as a result of those very same sanctions – to no one else’s surprise. As detailed by Bloomberg, the ruble extended its gains to become this year’s best-performing currency. On Monday, the ruble surged to a seven-year high against the euro thanks to the Russian government’s counter-measures. So much for turning the ruble into rubble.

Rather than take the loss and admit his policy failures, Biden now postures against China – America’s next biggest rival to Russia. He is trying to make himself look strong at the expense of American taxpayers who end up footing the bill for his foreign endeavors – and he’s doing so by risking American safety, not to mention the stability of the world at large. His posturing isn’t even backed up by the Department of Defense, which stated explicitly there has been no reversal in official US policy towards Taiwan.

 

“As the president said our One China policy has not changed,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who insisted that there was no shift in policy in response to queries from perplexed reporters.

“He reiterated that policy and our commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. He also highlighted our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to help provide Taiwan the means to defend itself. So, again, our policy is not changed,” said Austin. Just ignore the fact that Biden said yes when asked if he would deploy American troops to defend Taiwan.

Regardless of any denials from the White House, China must take what the so-called ‘leader of the free world’ says at face value, even as Biden’s staffers try to undo his apparent blunder. It raises the question: Were his words merely posturing or was he saying the quiet part out loud?

 

READ MORE:

https://www.rt.com/news/556058-military-involvement-chinese-invasion-taiwan/

 

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GusNote: methinks the president's teleprompter (the one hidden in his head, fed through his hearing aid) is making gaffes in order to confuse the "adversary of the day".....

 

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