In another era, Vladimir Fedorovsky was among those who whispered advice into Mikhail Gorbachev's ear as the latter tried to reform the Soviet Union's communist regime from within.

He was with the Secretary General when he let the countries behind the Iron Curtain – Poland, East Germany and the others – distance themselves from Moscow. He was there also during the negotiations which made it possible to put an end to the cold war.

On the phone, the former diplomat says he was also there when James Baker, Secretary of State to George Bush Sr., promised Eduard Shevardnadze, then Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union, that NATO would not was not going to expand an inch eastward after the frosty relationship ended. A promise denied since.

BY LAURA-JULIE PERREAULT

"At the time, we dreamed of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals", says today Mr. Fedorovski, who, after being at the head of an opposition party in post-communist Russia , has rebuilt a life as a writer in France.

It was the publication of his 50th essay, Putin, the Ukraine, the hidden faces, which was the pretext for our discussion. A hastily published book by the man with a Ukrainian father and a Russian mother.

Today, Vladimir Fedorovski is unable to sleep soundly. He has the feeling that the apocalypse is on the horizon and that he contributed to it, 30 years ago, by taking part in the dismantling of the communist bloc.

It was, he said, an important cog in the historical-political process that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the threat of World War III.

This moment of all dangers, he says, is not the work of a single isolated man who imposes a war on his neighbor and his people.

Last year's COVID-19 specialists suddenly became experts on Russia and Ukraine. They say Putin is a dingo, but in fact Putin is simply a product of history.

Vladimir Fedorovsky

The writer is careful to add that he was never a fan of the Russian president. And this, since their very first meeting in Saint Petersburg, when Vladimir Putin was the right arm of the mayor of the second city of Russia.

It is quite human to want to believe that a single individual at the top of the pyramid – a tyrant, a paranoid dictator – can be solely responsible for the worst atrocities on the planet, for a fratricidal war. Who would do that being sane, being well surrounded? we wonder.

The problem is that this analysis of the situation centered on the “crazy leader” has done us a disservice more than once. Think of Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. They were said to be all-powerful. Only captains of boats propelled by fear. Their disappearance, however, did not have the effect of a magic wand. In both Iraq and Libya, chaos has taken over.

By looking too much at the snow-capped summit of a regime, we too often forget that a whole mountain supports it. A mountain of sympathizers and individuals who benefit from it.

In Russia, Putin has built himself a sprawling base thanks to the Communist old guard, Orthodox believers, intelligence services and the circle of oligarchs who remain loyal to him. Not to mention the millions of Russians lifted out of poverty after he came to power.

According to Vladimir Fedorovski, if Putin disappeared overnight, we would not witness the emergence of a pro-Western democratic movement in Russia, but rather the strengthening of neo-Stalinist tendencies already at work.

“Russia is a civilization with a great culture, but the Russians feel that they have been looked down upon. Putin is just a phenomenon spawned by this perception,” he warns. A perception that Putin has certainly fed with propaganda, but of which he is not the creator. And who will not slip away with him.

To avoid a complete rupture between Russia and the West, an agreement must be negotiated as quickly as possible with the Kremlin, believes the former adviser to Gorbachev. An agreement that could include a neutral status for Ukraine, as well as the independence of Crimea and Donbass. An agreement that would also provide for a Western Marshall Plan to rebuild the country destroyed by the Russian invasion.

Vladimir Fedorovski agrees that the remedy he prescribes is not digestible, but he believes that it is less destructive than all the other options: a Russian victory in Ukraine, an endless war or the use of a nuclear weapon. Russian tactics in the event of a Ukrainian military victory. The dreaded apocalypse.

"I'm not the only one to think so. There are also former Russian secret service officers [including Sergei Jirnov, a refugee in France] who say the same thing, says the former diplomat. Maybe we should listen a little. »

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https://www.lapresse.ca/international/chroniques/2022-07-16/poutine-n-est-pas-un-dingo.php

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