BY PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

The Prospect of Nuclear War Is Getting Too Close for Comfort

Biden Regime Secretary of State Blinken has blocked negotiations between Russia and Ukraine by declaring it is US policy to drive Russia out of the reincorporated territories, including Crimea.

Biden’s announcement that the US will use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear threats, and the knowledge that US nuclear weapons are deployed close to Russia are forcing Putin to abandon his no first use of nuclear weapons pledge.

In other words, unlike the 20th century Cold War, today there is a hair-trigger on nuclear war. People who say nuclear war is impossible because there are no winners are out to lunch. Wars are the product of humans, and humans are emotional and stupid. They make mistakes hand over fist. Error is the human way.

During the Cold War, US presidents assured the Kremlin that the US had no intention of initiating a war. Today this assurance does not exist.

A Russian official has charged that the CIA and NSA were involved in the attack by drones deep inside Russia. So here we see the total validity of my warnings that Putin’s Goody Two Shoes behavior invites more and more reckless provocations. It is the inability of Putin to understand that Russia is at war with Ukraine and the US/NATO and that his “limited military operation” is nothing but his own delusion that is leading to nuclear war.

The United States government has now attacked Russia twice, not counting the attacks on the former Russian territory Russia has reincorporated, such as https://www.rt.com/russia/568031-melitopol-hotel-ukraine-himars/ . The attack on the Nord Stream pipelines and now drone attacks deep inside Russia are beyond Ukraine’s unassisted capability. Washington feels comfortable in these reckless acts, because Washington has dismissed Putin’s declared, but never defended, “red lines” as meaningless. https://www.rt.com/russia/567993-us-ukraine-attacks-deep-russia/

One wonders what is wrong with Putin and with the Kremlin in general that Russia forever complains but never acts. It should be self evident to the Kremlin that the longer the conflict and anti-Russian propaganda continue, the harder for the West to bow out. Prestige and predictions are at risk. a network of relationships develops. Powerful interest groups such as armaments corporations acquire stake in the conflict. With Ukraine facing defeat, there will be agitation for committing US and European soldiers. At first the claim will be that only one division is needed to bolster Ukraine at this or that point. Then to save that division another will be needed. We saw it all in Vietnam.

Will Putin finally realize that Russia is at war when Moscow goes up in smoke?

That would be a bit too late. Putin now admits that he waited too late to intervene in Ukraine, thus giving Washington time to build a Ukrainian military force. So why wait too late again? Can Putin learn from his mistakes? My fear is that Putin is unrealistic and does not comprehend the likely consequences of his Goody Two Shoes behavior. Putin’s restrained behavior gives the green light to greater provocations from Washington. These provocations are accelerating. Russia needs to use the force necessary to quickly end the war before it spins out of control.

Some years ago I wrote that Russia was disadvantaged, because Putin and the Russian liberals overestimated the humanity of the West. Now Putin says that “we may have realized too late” that Russia was being deceived. Nevertheless, he is still willing to negotiate and to be deceived again. Russian liberals, alienated from the Soviet government, were easy victims of American propaganda presenting the US as a light unto the world. This has had a disarming effect on the Russian ability to comprehend the West.  https://www.rt.com/russia/567979-putin-biskhek-press-takeaways/

The Kremlin complains endlessly but never acts. Russia complains to the UN Security Council that weapons supplied by the West are used to hit Russian schools and homes. Why does Russia think the Security Council cares or will do anything about it? The real question is why does Putin by pulling Russia’s punches permit Ukraine the latitude to use the “foreign-supplied” weapons? The Russians are too diplomatic to say “West-supplied.” Russia says there will be legal consequences for the war crimes in the future. Why not military consequences now? Until Putin gets serious about the war, provocations will continue their escalation.  https://www.rt.com/russia/567994-ukraine-warning-western-arms/

Another mistake Putin is making is not having a large professional standing army. Notice how long it took for Russia to mobilize 300,000 soldiers for reinforcing the “limited” operation in Ukraine. This should have taught the Kremlin something, but no, Putin announces no further need for more mobilization. Consequently, if the Ukraine situation does spin out of control Putin has nothing to fight with except nuclear weapons. Perhaps Putin fears domestic opposition from Americanized Russian youth that the Kremlin permitted American-financed NGOs to indoctrinate unhampered for years, or perhaps the Kremlin is “saving money.” How does Putin reconcile his statements that the West seeks the destruction of Russia with the absence of a large professional Russian army? That leaves him with only the nuclear option.

Commentators scoffed at my warnings that Western intervention in Ukraine was cooking up nuclear war. Now Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General says “I fear that the war in Ukraine will spiral out of control and become a major war between NATO and Russia. If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong.” Amazing how long it took him to realize that. With dumbshits like Stoltenberg and the American neoconservatives running the show, how can war be avoided?

To come back to my 8 year old question: Why does Putin refuse to act and bring the conflict to a quick close before it widens out of control? The “limited operation” has not limited anything. It has expanded the war into attacks on Russia herself. Foreign Minister Lavrov has admitted that Washington and NATO are “directly involved” in war against Russia. How can the Kremlin make such an admission and do nothing about it? How provocative will the next attack be? Why not go ahead and win the war before the next provocation happens? Yes, I would rather Russia win the war than for the conflict to escalate into nuclear war. Until recently, Ukraine was a part of Russia for centuries. During the 20th century Soviet leaders attached parts of Russia to their Ukrainian province. These Russians were suffering under the neo-Nazi regime established by Washington in 2014, formed independent republics and asked to be returned to Russia. This legitimate request is no basis for a nuclear war.

Washington and Europe need to consider that sooner or later Putin will have to act if US/NATO keep pushing him into a corner. The harder and further Putin is pushed, the more limited his options. As Stoltenberg now realizes, the situation can spin out of control. Are American neoconservatives capable of this realization? Does Putin realize the situation is spinning out of control because of his inaction?

I was involved in the 20th Century Cold War. I helped President Reagan end it. The situation was never as dangerous as the current situation. In those days there were still intelligent people in Washington. Today there are none. In those days no one doubted that the Soviets would act. Today Russia is seen as all talk and no action. Consequently, push is coming to shove.

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PUTIN ISN'T AS STUPID AS PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS MAKES OUT AND I GUESS PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS KNOWS THIS, BUT HE IS THROWING A CRACKER TO WAKE US UP.

PUTIN HAS TO DEAL WITH UKRAINE'S RUSSIANS WHO ARE INTERSPACED IN THE WESTERN PART OF UKRAINE, NOT JUST THOSE CONCETRATED IN THE DONBASS. HE ALSO HATES HURTING PEOPLE. THE US DON'T CARE ABOUT PEOPLE AS THEY HAVE SHOWN OVER AND OVER. BUT PUTIN HAS A FEW BACK-STOP POSITIONS THAT HE KEEPS CLOSE TO HIS CHEST AND WILL ALLOW HIM TO DEAL WITH THE USA IN TIME OF HIS CHOOSING. THE US EMPIRE IS THE PENTAGON. THE PENTAGON IS MAD AS SHOWN THERE, AND PUTIN NEEDS ALL THE SKILLS OF A ULYSSES TO DEAL WITH THIS HYDRA/CERBERUS/BULL AT THE GATE OF HELL. IT IS NOT AS SIMPLE AS WHAT PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS MAKES OUT. THE NATURAL EVOLUTION OF US POLITICS MIGHT PROVIDE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN CONFRONTATION. MUSK AND BEZOS ARE ALREADY SHAKING THE GROUND A BIT.

YES WE KNOW THAT BLINKEN IS JEWISH MAD, BIDEN IS SENILE AND THE PENTAGON CANNOT BE STUNG EASILY... 

PRESENTLY, DESPITE THE ATTACKS ON RUSSIA BY UKRAINE:

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with reporters after the Eurasian Economic Union summit in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek on Friday. Among the topics he addressed were the latest revelations from former German chancellor Angela Merkel, the military operation in Ukraine, the threat of nuclear war, the high-profile prisoner swap with the US, and Russian relations with the EU and Africa.

Merkel’s comments vindicate Ukraine operation

Putin said he was surprised and disappointed by former German chancellor Angela Merkel’s confession that the purpose of the Minsk peace agreements was to “buy time” for Ukraine. However, he added that it justified Moscow's military operation against Kiev.

“Their point was only to load up Ukraine with weapons and prepare it for hostilities. We see that. Honestly, we may have realized that too late, and maybe should have started all this sooner,” Putin said.
While he knew that Ukraine did not intend to implement the deal, “I thought other participants in that process were honest. Turns out they too were deceiving us,” said the Russian president.

How to negotiate with “trust at zero”

The deception about Minsk now raises a “question of trust,” said Putin, noting that it is currently “almost at zero.” The real question now is whether negotiations about anything with anyone are even possible, and what would guarantee any eventual deal, he added. “In the end, there will have to be talks. We are ready for them, I have said that many times. But it does make us think, who we’re dealing with.”

Why the conflict in Ukraine could “take a long time”

Asked about his earlier statement that the military operation might be a “long process,” Putin explained that he was actually referring to the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. “The special military operation is proceeding apace, everything is stable, there are no questions or problems with it today,” he said. Resolving the whole situation will “probably not be easy and will take some time, but one way or another, all participants in this process will have to agree with the realities that are taking shape on the ground.”

On launching a nuclear first strike

The US has long had a doctrine of launching a “disarming” attack against command and control systems, for which they developed cruise missiles the Soviet Union lacked, Putin said. Now Russia has hypersonic missiles that are “more modern and even more effective,” so“perhaps we should think about adopting the developments and ideas of our American partners when it comes to ensuring security.”
While the US doctrine envisions a pre-emptive nuclear strike, Russia’s doctrine is about retaliation, Putin explained. If the Russian early warning system detects a missile attack, “hundreds of our missiles will fly and it will be impossible to stop them.” While some attacking missiles will strike Russia, “nothing will remain of the enemy,” and that is how nuclear deterrence works, he explained.

More swaps like Bout-Griner are possible

Russia does not consider the success of talks to trade Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout as an opening to discuss other subjects with the US. While the negotiations “created a certain atmosphere,”no other issues were brought up within their framework, Putin said. 
He added that contacts between Russian and US security services “continue, and in fact never stopped,” but that this specific trade was initiated by US President Joe Biden.
“Are other exchanges possible? Yes, everything is possible. This is the result of negotiations and the search for compromise. In this case, a compromise was found,” the Russian president said.

On the prospect of another mobilization

Another call-up isn't being considered, Putin said when asked if more Russians will be drafted to the army in 2023. Of the 300,000 that have been mobilized, so far, some 150,000 have been deployed, but only 77,000 are attached to fighting units, while others are engaged in other duties at the moment.

“Half of those called up are a battle reserve, so why would anyone talk of an additional call-up?” Putin concluded. 

Answering Borrell’s Africa comment

Responding to the claim by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell that many Africans perhaps don’t know where Donbass is or who Putin may be, the Russian president said that the continent knows all too well who helped their liberation from European colonialism.
EU politicians should “stop talking about their love for the African peoples and start helping these countries,” Putin said. “If the people you spoke about knew where Africa was and what condition the peoples of Africa were in, they would not interfere with the supply of Russian food and fertilizers to the African continent, on which the harvest in African countries ultimately depends and the salvation of hundreds of thousands of people in Africa from starvation.”

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https://www.rt.com/russia/567979-putin-biskhek-press-takeaways/

AND THE MORE UKRAINE RESIST, THE MORE RUSSIA WILL ADVANCE DESPITE WESTERN MEDIA CLAIMS TO THE CONTRARY.....

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BY MIKE WHITNEY

Last week’s drone attacks on Russian military bases represent a serious escalation in Washington’s proxy war on Russia. One of the attacks involved an airfield that is located less than 200 miles from Moscow. Naturally, the incident rankled Russian President Vladimir Putin who convened an emergency meeting of his Security Council to explore the options for retaliatory strikes. We have no doubt that Russia’s Top Brass recommended tit-for-tat missile strikes beyond Ukraine’s borders as a form of equal payback. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed and the military stuck with its current strategy of obliterating critical infrastructure in cities across the country. The attacks on Ukraine’s fragile electrical grid are the essential preparation for the launching of a widely-anticipated winter offensive. Here’s more from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:

Yesterday’s drone attack on an airfield in Kursk marks a major escalation in NATO’s war against Russia….The location of the attacks and their implementation points once again to the direct involvement of the United States….The bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines…The explosions in Sevastopol’s naval harbour on October 29 (and) The November 15 explosions in a Polish farming village that killed two civilians….Every one of these actions reeks of covert US and NATO involvement, each more reckless and potentially dangerous than the last….A pattern is emerging—one in which the US and NATO keep pushing against Russia in order to test how far they can go without provoking a response from the Putin regime….The relentless and reckless escalation of the war by the United States carries with it the risk of the Russian government responding with a major escalation of its own, with potentially catastrophic consequences.” (“Drone attacks on Russian airbases: A major escalation in the war authored in Washington“, Chris Marsden, World Socialist Web Site)

Just hours after the third attack, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken delivered a statement denying any responsibility for the incident. He said:

“We have neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia.” Not surprisingly, Blinken’s denial fell well-short of a formal repudiation of the attack itself which one might have expected. More to the point, it appears that the US was directly involved given that “Both NATO and Russian observers (claim) US satellite involvement in attacks on Russian bases.” Here’s what they found:

Multiple military sources in NATO countries as well as Russia …..report that the reconditioned Russian Tu-141 drones that Ukraine launched at Russian air bases downlinked US satellite GPS data to hit their targets.

The 1970s-vintage Russian recon drones were converted into cruise missiles, fitted with new guidance systems and directed by American satellites, the sources said. Ukraine does not have the capability to guide missiles on its own, they added.

Russia’s Defense Ministry identified one of the weapons as the Tu-141 in a December 6 statement. According to Russian military sources, the Russians identified the Tu-141 from fragments recovered after the missiles struck Russia’s Dyagilevo and Engels air force bases.

If, contrary to Blinken’s denial, the United States provided guidance for the missile attack, then Washington must be well aware that this brings NATO forces to the brink of direct involvement in the Ukraine war and the Biden administration must be prepared to run that risk.” (“Military sources: Ukraine missiles used US guidance“, Asia Times)

So, what does this new incitement mean and how will it affect the conduct of the war?

We think Washington has adopted a new tactical approach that could be called “calculated recklessness”, that is, the US is launching meticulously planned attacks that are made to look like impulsive acts of aggression by their proxy, Ukraine. The objective of these attacks is to provoke Moscow into an overreaction, that is, retaliatory strikes on targets outside of Ukraine.That, in turn, could be used as a justification for NATO’s entrance into the conflict which, ostensibly, is Washington’s goal.

It appears, however, that Putin and his advisors have resisted the temptation to expand the war beyond the current battlespace. This is from an article at Southfront:

In response to Kiev’s attempts to disrupt the work of Russian aviation, Russian forces launched another massive strike at military and energy facilities throughout Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that all 17 targets in Ukraine were hit. Explosions were reported in more than 10 regions of the country.

Strikes on infrastructure facilities led to another collapse of the entire energy system of Ukraine. Due to the imbalance in the system, a wave of emergency power outages is still rolling across the country, accompanied by massive accidents in the power grid...

The lack of electricity, water and communications throughout the country is accompanied by loud statements from Kiev that the Ukrainian Air Defense allegedly successfully intercepted almost all Russian missiles.” (“Kiev plays dangerous games with Russian long-range aviation”, Southfront)

In other words, Putin has not been baited into the escalation that Washington seeks, but that doesn’t mean he won’t call up additional reservists to form territorial defense units in multiple areas along Russia’s western flank. We think he will. Moscow can no longer ignore the threat of future attacks or incursions on its own soil. It must bulk up its manpower and prepare for the worst. Gradually, Russia is moving towards a full wartime mobilization.

What is particularly interesting about this new escalation is that contradicts the administration’s original commitment to prevent the conflict from spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders. This is from the WSWS:

The United States, having instigated and provoked a war that has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians, has crossed not only Russia’s “red lines,” but its own…. In May, Biden published an op-ed in the New York Times entitled “What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine,” in which he stated that “We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders.” But Washington has done precisely that, giving targeting information, weapons, and logistics support that have allowed Ukraine to attack deep inside Russian territory.”(WSWS)

Washington’s promises means nothing. US actions are guided by self interest alone and by an insatiable thirst for power. That means we should expect to see similar provocations in the future as Washington pushes the envelope in its effort draw Russia into a wider war that will likely engulf the region. Here’s more from the WSWS:

The bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines… The explosions in Sevastopol’s naval harbour on October 29 (and) The November 15 explosions in a Polish farming village that killed two civilians…. Every one of these actions reeks of covert US and NATO involvement, each more reckless and potentially dangerous than the last…. The latest attacks deep inside Russian territory could have been orchestrated by sections of the US military, intelligence and political elite.. no matter how potentially disastrous the outcome of such brinksmanship might be.” (World Socialist Web Site)

The analysts at the WSWS have never accepted the fiction that the US is merely assisting Ukraine in its struggle against the Russian boogieman. From the very beginning, they have grasped that the conflict was largely a US concoction aimed at using proxies to weaken Russia in order to achieve its broader geopolitical goals. These latest attacks confirm that the United States is committed to resolving this crisis through the use of military force. That means a negotiated settlement is not only out-of-the-question, but is seen as anathema to Washington’s strategic objectives. As foreign policy analyst John Mearsheimer points out in a recent interview, there are no longer any “realistic options” for how the war can be brought to an end. The differences are irreconcilable, there is no willingness to compromise, and the US sees military confrontation as the solution. Bottom line: Escalation is inevitable.

Here’s part of a recent interview with Mearsheimer that I transcribed to underscore the hopelessness of the current situation in Ukraine which is bound to get worse before it gets better. I apologize for any mistakes in transcribing their comments.

Freddie Sayers– What are the realistic options now? (In other words, how can the war in Ukraine be brought to an end?)

John Mearsheimer– (19:40 minutes) There are no realistic options. We’re screwed… The conflict will grind-on and both sides will escalate. They have been escalating and where it leads is very hard to say. There’s no deal on the table that can be worked out here. There’s all this talk about the need for diplomacy…. but the question you have to ask yourself in this particular case is: If you do diplomacy can you work out a deal? And, in my opinion, there’s no deal to be worked out, and both sides are going to fight this one out…..

There are two big issues here: “One” is a “neutral Ukraine” and the other is the ‘territorial one‘ The Russians now have annexed 4 oblasts. That’s a big chunk of Ukrainian territory and the Russians now believe that territory belongs to them. Do you think the Russians will be willing to abandon that territory along with Crimea? I don’t see that happening. I don’t think the Russians have any intention of abandoning that territory…

The Ukrainians for their part, insist on getting that territory back, and the Americans, will not be willing to concede that territory to the Russians because it would appear that would a defeat for the West. The United States and its allies are ‘in this one’ to win. We are deeply committed. For us to back-off and give the Russians any major concessions is just unacceptable at this point…. 

That’s the territorial issue. Then there’s the question of whether or not Ukraine will be neutral. The Russians insist that Ukraine be neutral.The Ukrainians are saying, we are willing to be neutral but we need a guarantee for our security from someone. Well, the only one who can guarantee Ukrainian security is NATO and specifically, the United States…. but that would make Ukraine a de facto member of NATO and that’s unacceptable to the Russians. So, there’s no way you’re going to get a truly neutral Ukraine that is not affiliated with the west. That’s not going to happen and the Russians are not going to accept that.

So, what the Russians are going to do instead is create a dysfunctional rump state. and that’s what they’re doing now. That’s why they’ve taken all that territory, and that’s why they’re wrecking Ukraine…..

The two outcomes that we have to worry greatly about are, 1–where the Russians use nuclear weapons and, 2– where the United States comes into the fight … Because then, you have a great power war where the United States and Russia are actually fighting each other. And as Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence told the senate this past spring, the most likely scenario for the Russians to use nuclear weapons is if the NATO comes into the war. So, this is very dangerous….

There is a non-trivial chance that nuclear weapons will be used in Ukraine. If the Russians were to use nuclear weapons it would be most likely that they would use them in Ukraine. And Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons of its own so Ukraine would not be able to retaliate. against the Russians…

Furthermore, if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the US is not going to use nuclear weapons against Russia because that would lead to a general thermonuclear war…  The great danger is that if the Russians use nuclear weapons in Ukraine that the west would retaliate with a massive conventional attack against Russian forces, General David Petraeus has said that if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine, the US should slam Russian conventional forces inside Ukraine and Russian naval forces in the Back Sea. If we were to do that, we would then have a great power war. NATO would be at war against Russia and as Avril Haines said, that is likely to lead to a nuclear war because the Russians would not be able to stand up to the Americans and their allies.

(If Russia does use nuclear weapons in Ukraine) then the wise response, and I think, the likely response would be that we would go to great lengths to shut-down the conflict. I think the use of nuclear weapons would shut down the conflict (because) it would become so clear at that point in time that we were in danger of creating a nuclear war between the superpowers that we would go to great lengths to shut-down. That would focus the mind in ways that are hard to imagine in the current context.

(Unfortunately) we are making it (the use of nukes) more and more likely. It’s important to realize that the more successful NATO and the Ukrainians are at defeating the Russians inside Ukraine and wrecking the Russian economy, the more likely it is that they will use nuclear weapons. And, again, you do not want to underestimate what great powers will do when they are desperate. …..(“John Mearsheimer: We’re playing Russian Roulette”, Unherd; 39:25 minutes)

Mearsheimer not only explains the irreconcilable differences between the two adversaries (Russia and the US), but also presents a very credible scenario in which the conflict could lead to a nuclear war. The fact that the Biden adminsitration has rejected diplomacy outright, makes that scenario all the more likely and, perhaps, unavoidable. Here’s more from Mearsheimer:

You know the Americans have the Monroe Doctrine…which says the western hemisphere is our ‘back yard’ and no distant great power is allowed to put military forces in the western hemisphere. No great power is allowed to form a military alliance with another country in the western hemisphere because –from the American perspective– it is intolerable to have a distant great power (from Europe or Asia) on our doorstep. Well, the same logic applies to the Russians. From the Russian perspective, the idea that you are going to have NATO right on your doorstep ….is unacceptable to them. The Russians couldn’t stop NATO from expanding in 1999 and they couldn’t stop it in 2004 because they were too weak… This is what America did to Russia when the Soviet Union broke apart. We shoved NATO expansion down their throat, but the fact is, the Russians viewed this as an existential threat. Ukraine in NATO was the brightest of all red lines for Russia. And if you look at the Monroe Doctrine you should not be surprised at how the Russians are reacting to what is going on in Ukraine.” (“John Mearsheimer: We’re playing Russian Roulette”, Unherd)

He’s right, isn’t he?

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