The war in Ukraine is the culmination of a 30-year project of the American neoconservative movement.  The Biden Administration is packed with the same neocons who championed the US wars of choice in Serbia (1999), Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Syria (2011), Libya (2011), and who did so much to provoke Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The neocon track record is one of unmitigated disaster, yet Biden has staffed his team with neocons. As a result, Biden is steering Ukraine, the US, and the European Union towards yet another geopolitical debacle. If Europe has any insight, it will separate itself from these US foreign policy debacles. 

The neocon movement emerged in the 1970s around a group of public intellectuals, several of whom were influenced by University of Chicago political scientist Leo Strauss and Yale University classicist Donald Kagan. Neocon leaders included Norman Podhoretz, Irving Kristol, Paul Wolfowitz, Robert Kagan (son of Donald), Frederick Kagan (son of Donald), Victoria Nuland (wife of Robert), Elliott Abrams, and Kimberley Allen Kagan (wife of Frederick).

Main message of the neocons:
US military domination everywhere

The main message of the neocons is that the US must predominate in military power in every region of the world, and must confront rising regional powers that could someday challenge US global or regional dominance, most importantly Russia and China. For this purpose, US military force should be pre-positioned in hundreds of military bases around the world and the US should be prepared to lead wars of choice as necessary. The United Nations is to be used by the US only when useful for US purposes.
    This approach was spelled out first by Paul Wolfowitz in his draft Defense Policy Guidance (DPG)1 written for the Department of Defense in 2002. The draft called for extending the US-led security network to the Central and Eastern Europe despite the explicit promise by German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher in 1990 that German unification would not be followed by NATO’s eastward enlargement.2 Wolfowitz also made the case for American wars of choice, defending America’s right to act independently, even alone, in response to crises of concern to the US. According to General Wesley Clark, Wolfowitz already made clear to Clark in May 1991 that the US would lead regime-change operations in Iraq, Syria, and other former Soviet allies.3

Aware of fatal consequences

The neocons championed NATO enlargement to Ukraine even before that became official US policy under George W. Bush, Jr. in 2008.  They viewed Ukraine’s NATO membership as key to US regional and global dominance.  Robert Kagan spelled out the neocon case for NATO enlargement in April 2006:
    “[T]he Russians and Chinese see nothing natural in [the “colour revolutions” of the former Soviet Union], only Western-backed coups designed to advance Western influence in strategically vital parts of the world. Are they so wrong? Might not the successful liberalization of Ukraine, urged and supported by the Western democracies, be but the prelude to the incorporation of that nation into NATO and the European Union – in short, the expansion of Western liberal hegemony?”4
    Kagan acknowledged the dire implication of NATO enlargement.  He quotes one expert as saying, “The Kremlin is getting ready for the ‘battle for Ukraine’ in all seriousness.”  After the fall of the Soviet Union, both the US and Russia should have sought a neutral Ukraine, as a prudent buffer and safety valve. Instead, the neocons wanted US “hegemony” while the Russians took up the battle partly in defence and partly out of their own imperial pretentions as well.  Shades of the Crimean War (1853–1856), when Britain and France sought to weaken Russia in the Black Sea following Russian pressures on the Ottoman empire.
    Kagan penned the article as a private citizen while his wife Victoria Nuland was the US Ambassador to NATO under George W. Bush, Jr. Nuland has been the neocon operative par excellence.  In addition to serving as Bush’s Ambassador to NATO, Nuland was Barack Obama’s Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs during 2013-–2017, where she participated in the overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, and now serves as Biden’s Undersecretary of State guiding US policy vis-à-vis the war in Ukraine.

False premises and disregard for reality

The neocon outlook is based on an overriding false premise: that the US military, financial, technological, and economic superiority enables it to dictate terms in all regions of the world.  It is a position of both remarkable hubris and remarkable disdain of evidence.  Since the 1950s, the US has been stymied or defeated in nearly every regional conflict in which it has participated.  Yet in the “battle for Ukraine,” the neocons were ready to provoke a military confrontation with Russia by expanding NATO over Russia’s vehement objections because they fervently believe that Russia will be defeated by US financial sanctions and NATO weaponry.
    The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a neocon think-tank led by Kimberley Allen Kagan (and backed by a who’s who of defence contractors such as General Dynamics and Raytheon), continues to promise a Ukrainian victory. Regarding Russia’s advances, the ISW offered a typical comment: “[R]egardless of which side holds the city [of Sievierodonetsk], the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will probably have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.”
    The facts on the ground, however, suggest otherwise.  The West’s economic sanctions have had little adverse impact on Russia, while their “boomerang” effect on the rest of the world has been large.  Moreover, the US capacity to resupply Ukraine with ammunition and weaponry is seriously hamstrung by America’s limited production capacity and broken supply chains. Russia’s industrial capacity of course dwarfs that of Ukraine’s.  Russia’s GDP was roughly 10X that of Ukraine before war, and Ukraine has now lost much of its industrial capacity in the war.
    The most likely outcome of the current fighting is that Russia will conquer a large swath of Ukraine, perhaps leaving Ukraine landlocked or nearly so. Frustration will rise in Europe and the US with the military losses and the stagflationary5consequences of war and sanctions. The knock-on effects could be devastating, if a right-wing demagogue in the US rises to power (or in the case of Trump, returns to power) promising to restore America’s faded military glory through dangerous escalation.
    Instead of risking this disaster, the real solution is to end the neocon fantasies of the past 30 years and for Ukraine and Russia to return to the negotiating table, with NATO committing to end its commitment to the eastward enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia in return for a viable peace that respects and protects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity •

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GUSNOTE: UKRAINE TERRITORIAL "INTEGRITY" HAS BEEN A MIRAGE SINCE 1917, 1922, 1941, 1954 AND 1991..... IT'S TIME TO RECOGNISE THE RETURN TO RUSSIA OF THE DONBASS AND OF CRIMEA.

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by Karine Bechet-Golovko

The aligned media will never tell you about these war crimes. Because they were committed by their men. Yes, their men ". It was neither wild animals nor robots who killed more than 3000 civilians in Mariupol, they were men of flesh and blood, but men who had lost their souls. And it is they that the countries of the Atlanticist Axis continue to finance and arm against Russia. Russia is opening a criminal case to elucidate these atrocities and others committed by the Atlantic-Ukrainian army. But for this to succeed, it will be necessary to have the courage of legal action, the announcement effects becoming more and more limited because of their multiplication.

The International Social Tribunal for Ukraine has compiled information regarding the crimes committed in Mariupol and the publications are available here in Russian on his website. The city was divided into 4 military sectors – A, B, C and D. Each Atlantic-Ukrainian military unit was responsible for its sector. Note the presence of the Azov battalion in sectors A and D, and of the regular army in the others. Prosecuting evidence has been obtained, in particular against Ivan Botchkarev, known as “the Sorcerer”, member of Azov, born in Zhitomir, in Western Ukraine. For example: an inhabitant of the city has, according to the Sorcerer, badly looked at the armaments placed within the school n°42. He was arrested and his home searched. As he had a Russian passport and Russian telephone numbers in his mobile, the Sorcerer killed him with 4 bullets at close range and the body was deposited with those of the other executed civilians, not far from there. Chronique ordinary horror. We will also note the civilians executed simply because they had exceeded the hour of prohibition of leaving and returning home, those who carried plastic bags near a shopping center and seemed suspicious. Summary executions. Point.

The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, since the liberation of the city from this terror, has opened an investigation to fix the facts and establish responsibilities. On December 30, the President of the Investigation Committee held a special meeting on the matter and it emerged that the scale of the crime committed is far beyond comprehension.

« During the preliminary investigation of criminal cases into the crimes of Ukrainian nationalists in Mariupol, it was established that the distribution of forces and means of defense of the city was carried out by officers from among the military personnel of the 12th brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, which also included the Azov regiment. The agreed action plan involved a division of the city into sectors with an individual area of ​​responsibility (A, B, C and D) ».

And to specify:

« During the period when Russian troops were organizing humanitarian corridors through Sector A, Ukrainian National Guard soldiers purposely created obstacles for the evacuation of civilians from the city. Unable to leave the city and moving in search of food, the civilians became a living target for the punitive Ukrainian commandos, who killed them with various types of weapons. So, only in April 2022, the bodies of 51 civilians were found on the positions abandoned by Ukrainian troops, and after the full liberation and examination of the city, their number amounted to more than three thousand ».

3000 civilian victims, killed with weapons supplied by Atlanticist Axis countries, by men trained by NATO programs and by Axis member countries. 3000 civilians. This should make you think. Especially since foreigners participated in this war crime:

« During the investigation, new information was obtained about the participation of foreign mercenaries in the units of the Ukrainian army. Thus, from the testimony of one of the prisoners, it appears that in the unit of the 36th Marine Corps Autonomous Brigade, there were citizens of Great Britain. They have been serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2020, actively participating in preparations for conducting combat operations in urban areas. Moreover, Ukrainian military personnel were trained by German instructors to storm buildings and fire foreign-made weapons. During the meeting, it was noted that at present, information regarding the financing of the activities of mercenaries on the territory of Ukraine is being established in detail ». 

All the buildings in the city have not yet been checked and bodies are buried wildly under the rubble. Little by little, the investigators bring to the surface the extent of this atrocity. The bodies cannot always be identified, a DNA database will be set up to speed up the process of identifying the victims. Victims, who will then be buried with dignity in a cemetery.

Not to mention the damage done to the civilian infrastructure of the city of Mariupol, which was militarized and therefore served as a legitimate target. The damage is estimated at more than 176 billion rubles.

To date, some extras are already seeing their liability called into question:

« On the basis of the information received, criminal proceedings were opened against the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, the Commander of the Operation of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Pavlyuk, the Commander of the Operational-Tactical Group "Vostok" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Sodol, Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Lebed, Commander of the 12th Operational Brigade of the Eastern Territorial Association of the National Guard of Ukraine Colonel Shlega, Commander of the 12th Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine of the "Azov" Special Forces Autonomous Unit, Major Prokopenko and other National Guard of Ukraine officials, of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other Ukrainian military formations on the basis of the violation of s. 1 of art. 356 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation ». 

According to art. 356 CC on the use of prohibited methods and means of warfare:

« 1. Cruel treatment of prisoners of war or the civilian population, deportation of the civilian population, plunder of national property in occupied territory, use in armed conflict of means and methods prohibited by an international treaty recognized by the Russian Federation – shall be liable to a custodial sentence not exceeding twenty years ». 

But for these political statements to come to life, we will have to enter the legal field. Hopefully this will take Russia out of all-communications and big accountability threats, in Russian, on Telegram (which no one in the West reads), to actually start the legal fight. These victims and all the others deserve it!

Karine Bechet-Golovko

source: Russia Politics

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Facts and figures: We know to what extent the USA has the capacity to support tyrants, to what extent Western propaganda invents "monsters" when we resist them, even if it means transforming the creature that we have placed in power bloodthirsty when it suits you, but making Zelensky a hero defending his people is probably the most obvious scam. The reality of Ukraine, like that of all the countries that the West is invading, because that is what it is all about, the looting of a nation to transform it into a de facto NATO base against Russia, and this with the systematic destruction of the country described here with facts and figures. For the USA to act in this way but for Macron, without the slightest challenge, with the support of all political forces to date, to be able to involve France, by playing on censorship and the complicity of disinformation apparatuses, is of the order of the ignominy to the Ukrainian people.

Danielle Bleitrach

by Aliona Zadorozhnaya

At the end of 2022, Volodymyr Zelensky achieved exceptional but, in many ways, tragic results. He managed to bring the Ukrainian population back to the level of a century ago, to subjugate the country to the West and to deprive its citizens of the basic goods of civilization. What other "hits" can Zelensky's record show?

A catastrophic drop in the birth rate is predicted in Ukraine in 2023. Ella Libanova, director of the Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies and academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, made the statement. According to her, by 2030 the population will decrease to 35 million people, a process that began in 1994. Libanova says that Ukraine today has 34-35 million inhabitants.

However, these figures are questionable. The number of refugees arriving in Russia from the Donbass and Ukraine has already exceeded five million. Over the summer, according to the UN, about 6,3 million Ukrainian citizens fled the country to all European countries. Experts are convinced that Libanova is overstating the numbers – and that there are already far fewer people living in Ukraine today than she claims.

« Even before the SVO, it was difficult to understand how many people actually live in Ukraine. Officially the numbers were supposed to be around 40 million people, but in fact there were around 33 million people or even less said economist Ivan Lizan to the VZGLYAD newspaper. " From 2016 to 2019, Ukrainians topped for primary residence permits in Poland. Every year, up to 500 people “leaved” in this way. It should also not be forgotten that a large number of refugees have recently settled in Europe “, emphasizes the expert.

« Thus, there are at best 25 to 27 million people left in Ukraine, which is comparable to the size of the population in the 1920s. It is mainly men who remain in the country because they are simply forbidden to 'to go abroad “, underlines our interlocutor.

« I am sure that in 2023 these trends will continue. We will also see an internal migration. In the regions near the front, when the situation becomes tense, people flee. For example, local residents fled to Dnipropetrovsk from the Kyiv-controlled part of Donbass said the economist.

« The situation in the labor market is also terrible. Budget workers [civil servants] are mostly paid poverty wages. Teachers, who are forced to move to other parts of Ukraine due to the proximity of hostilities, only have enough money to pay rent said Mr. Lizan.

« The most lucrative thing is going to fight. The AFU pays 100000 hryvnia (€2500) to those who take part in battles, and 30000 hryvnia (€770) to those who do not participate in active combat. Those who come back from the front get drunk and waste their money. It's gotten to the point that they go to appliance stores and, without looking at the price, ask for the most expensive TV to be delivered to them “said the expert.

« Some also earn money by looting. There is one non-state post office in Ukraine which has integrated into the logistics system of the AFU – it is Nova Posta. And now his trucks deliver ammunition, provisions and other things to the front line, and from there they remove and sell all the looted goods. This was also the case during the so-called ATO [Anti-Terrorist Operation, from 2014 to Feb 2022] “, underlined the interlocutor. " It is not easy for the peasants either. In the spring, former collective farms received their rations in grain rather than cash, whereas in previous years people could make their own choice. “, noted Mr. Lizan.

« In 2022, at least eight million people have left Ukraine. If we count the lost territories, there are no more than 18 to 20 million people left in the country. And due to the severe restrictions on men leaving the state, it is mostly women and children who leave the country. added Larissa Shesler, human rights activist.

« Most cities don't have functioning schools, officially they operate remotely. Establishments, even the largest ones, look like ghosts. In Nikolayev, Odessa, Zaporozhe, less than half of the apartments are occupied in apartment buildings, those who remain are mostly elderly or very poor people who have no money and no chance of settling in another country “, describes our interlocutor.

« And 2023 offers no hope of improving the situation. Most refugees in Europe understand that they will not return to Ukraine. The drop in the birth rate is catastrophic, and next year will be even more difficult due to the cumulative effects “, underlines the political scientist.

« Of those who stayed, many lost their income. Western experts and Ukrainian authorities estimate unemployment at 30% of the working population. But a few months ago, the governor of Nikolaiv spoke of 80% of the city's inhabitants having lost their jobs. And that's more likely to be true “, continues the expert. " Those who have a job also have difficulties. The vast majority of the employed population receives about 14000 hryvnias, which is equivalent to 360 euros. However, food prices have risen by 360-40%, so people are on the edge of survival “said Larissa Shesler.

The entire Ukrainian economy is suffering against a backdrop of population exodus and unemployment. Despite huge injections of money from the West, factories are closing, mineral production is declining and harvests are down. Political analysts have predicted that Ukraine will turn into a third world country as early as last August. At the time, it was pointed out that the state could be deprived of its agrarian potential. And now the predictions are confirmed in practice.

Even the Ukrainian oligarchs, who only get richer in hard times, are losing their fortunes. For example, the total capital of the richest citizens of Ukraine has fallen by more than 20 billion dollars compared to the beginning of February 2022, as pointed out Forbes Ukraine.

The public debt is also increasing (more than 100 billion dollars). " There simply are no adequate estimates of the level of decline of the Ukrainian economy; there is only one range of estimated data. Before the fall Russian strikes on the electricity sector, the Ukrainian authorities were talking about a 30 to 40% drop in GDP. The GDP figure for 2021 was $198 billion “, economist Ivan Lizan told the newspaper VZGLYAD.

« When we started hitting the large-scale energy installations in order to destroy the enemy's logistical capabilities, the estimates were adjusted. kyiv said at the time that if the strikes continued, GDP would be reduced by 50%. The strikes continued “, adds the interlocutor. " But already in December, Prime Minister Shmyhal said the fall, although real, ranged around 35%. I do not believe in this statement and I am of the opinion that the GDP will have decreased by 50% at the end of the year. That's about $100 billion “says the expert. " In addition, Mr. Zelensky's economic adviser, Rostyslav Shurma, said that in the fourth quarter, industrial production fell by 50 to 90%, depending on the region. At the same time, there is a trend that the regions closest to the front line have subsided most severely. “, continues the economist.

« For Ukraine, the loss of half of its GDP is even more damaging than in 2014-2015. The country cannot have a normal economy without a normal electricity sector. Everything is related to electricity in one way or another. For example, corn can be harvested from fields before frost and the first snowfall. But then you have to dry it, and without electricity, it's almost impossible. Consequently, the maize harvest decreased by 30%, and the overall yield dropped by 40%. », explains the expert.

« As a result, had it not been for the support of the West, Ukraine would have already begun to crumble. But NATO managed to keep it afloat. This is a story not about the development of the state but about stabilizing the financial system – money is given so that there is enough for war », says the interlocutor. " Borrowing is another story – it takes place domestically, because no one needs the bonds in the foreign market. In fact, this year Ukraine defaulted for the second time in eight years. Today, external creditors are afraid of Ukrainian debt », explains the economist.

« The outlook for Ukraine's GDP decline is getting worse day by day. Over the past month, the critical situation in the electricity sector has led to a drop in production of up to 80% in many industries. Metallurgy has practically stopped, mining and ore processing companies have sharply reduced production “says Larisa Shesler.

« For now, only small businesses and shops are operating with generators, and banking and municipal institutions are operating on a limited basis. The situation is complicated by the fact that there are still no solutions to the energy crisis “, notes our interlocutor.

« As a preliminary, the fall in annual GDP in November reached 40%. The situation worsened in December. But no figure can reflect the real process of rapid deindustrialization in Ukraine. Almost all major factories have been closed, construction and mineral extraction have been halted “, enumerates the expert.

« Today, Ukraine is losing everything that has been created on its territory for decades. It is frightening to imagine how much it will cost to revive electricity networks and thermal power plants. It is obvious that neither Europe nor the United States will preserve Ukraine as an industrial country, even as a supplier of metallurgical semi-finished products or an exporter of electricity from nuclear power plants speculates Ms. Shesler.

« They want to leave Ukraine as a territory flooded with paramilitaries fighting against Russia with farmland to grow cheap sunflowers » she underlines. " This year, Ukraine received huge sums of money in loans and tranches, unprecedented before. And absolutely no one expects a full refund of this amount. In this way, the State finds itself in full economic dependence vis-à-vis Western countries “said the political scientist.

« At the same time, the memorandum recently adopted and signed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy and the IMF stipulates the rejection of the indexation of social benefits, the rejection of the simplified tax system, the tightening of tax policy and the reduction in the number of employees and their salaries said the interviewee.

Ivan Lisan, speaking about the future of Ukraine, said he was confident that " in 2023, it will only shrink, including territorially ". " In many ways, what is happening in Ukraine now resembles the situation in 2014, but in reverse. At the time, Petro Poroshenko tried to nullify the economy of Donbass. And now Volodymyr Zelensky is doing the same all over Ukraine in the territories that remain to him because of his political mistakes concluded Lisan.

Marianne Dunlop translation for History and Society

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