JIMMY DORE IS CORRECT — TO A POINT.

HE SAYS SOMETHING LIKE “CLIMATE CHANGE IS A CROCK DESIGNED TO ENSLAVE PEOPLE AND MAKE THE RICH RICHER”. THIS IS TRUE. 

HELLO? HAS GUS FLIPPED HIS LID? NO…..

CLIMATE CHANGE — OR MORE EXPLANATORY, GLOBAL WARMING — IS A MAJOR PROBLEM.

OUR SOCIETAL RESPONSE TO THIS BIG PROBLEM IS WOEFUL.

OUR RESPONSE IS:

1. NOT WORKING WELL
2. MAKING THE RICH RICHER
3. MAKING THE MIDDLE CLASS DISAPPEAR INTO THE LOWER ECHELON: THE POOR.
4. THE MIDDLE CLASS IS WILLING TO VANISH UNDER INSTRUCTION.

———————————————

1) NOT WORKING WELL 

Greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase in 2022, as did the effects on Earth’s climate and the consequences for humans. Pet trading within Australia needs to be more strictly monitored and regulated.

Global Climate Report 2022

The World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) 2022 update continues to tell the same sad story of political neglect:

• Emissions of the three principal greenhouse gases – CO2, methane and nitrous oxide – continued to increase. For methane, it was the largest annual increase ever recorded.
• So, of course, the total level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increased again.
• The global mean surface temperature was 1.15oC above the 1850-1900 average, making 2022 the fifth hottest year on record (despite three years of La Nina) and the last eight years the warmest eight.
• The heat content of the oceans down to 2000 metres continued to increase.
• As a result of both melting polar ice and warmer water, the global mean sea level rose again. Over the last 30 years, it has risen by 10cm and the during the last decade the rate of rise has been double what it was in the 1990s.
• Ocean acidification increased again.
• In September, the Arctic sea ice extent was the 11th lowest minimum on record and in February the Antarctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record.
• Glaciers around the world have lost mass in all but five of the last 73 years. The annual loss in 2022 was second only to 2019.
• Regardless of how successful our climate action is over the next century, the seas will continue to rise and glaciers and sea ice will continue to melt for thousands of years.
• Climate-related phenomena contributed to the world experiencing more frequent and more severe extreme weather events such as cold and heat waves, marine heat waves, floods, droughts, bushfires and storms.
• Such high impact climate events threaten to undermine the achievement of many of the Sustainable Development Goals by, for instance, increasing poverty and inequalities; creating water scarcity, food insecurity and health problems; damaging infrastructure; causing conflict and displacing populations; and increasing biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.

The WMO concludes that the climate will continue to change unless the underlying drivers are addressed: ‘Without immediate and deep greenhouse gas emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible to keep warming below 1.5oC’. The WMO derives hope from the fact that wind and solar now provide 12% of global electricity but fail to note that fossil fuels still provide about 80% of all global energy.

Pet trading in Australia

Over a 14 week period in 2019/20, over 109,000 live vertebrates (not including mammals) were advertised for sale within Australia on twelve online sites. These sales involved 1192 species, of which 667 (56%) were non-native. It is illegal to import 279 of the species that were traded. 81 of the species were threatened. Some of the traded animals belong to species not yet scientifically described and named.

Birds were by far the commonest animals advertised – approximately two-thirds of the total trades. The sales involved 184 species, over 60% of which were non-native.

Fish were involved in approximately 30% of the trades. Over 60% of the 805 species were non-native.

Approximately 10% of the trades were for reptiles. All 186 species were native.

Only 216 amphibians involving 17 species (1 non-native) were advertised for sale.

There are multiple problems and risks associated with these trades. Some of them probably involved breaches of the law, if not at this particular point of sale, at some stage in the pets’ travels. Some constituted a threat to Australia’s biosecurity and ecosystems if the pets escape (or are released) into the wild. Also worrying is the threat to the sustainability of the wild populations of some of these animals and the welfare of many of the individuals being traded and kept as pets.

The report’s authors expressed concern about the highly unregulated trading of non-native animals as pets within Australia, particularly as it seems to be occurring in much higher volumes than previously appreciated. They concluded that ‘Australia’s biosecurity priorities [for imported animals] are commendable, yet its management of non-native pets falls short of a system that comprehensively reduces known and/or identifiable risks.’ They recommended increased monitoring of domestic trading activities and substantial changes to national legislation to reduce the volume of non-native pets being traded.

Barry Jones: the 7Cs of Australians’ carbon footprint

It appeared in a very recent P&I but I’m worried that some of you may have missed Barry Jones’s very pithy 7Cs summary of why the average Australian’s greenhouse gas emissions are so high, so here it is again.

‘There are seven words, all starting with the letter ‘C’ which determine Australia’s No. 1 ranking of greenhouse gas emissions per capita: nearly double that of China (although China is far ahead in absolute numbers).

They are:

• Coal
• Cities
• Cars
• Cement
• Chain-saws
• Cows
• Consumption

Apart from our domestic consumption of coal we are among the world’s greatest exporters. Every tonne of coal burnt produces 3.67 tonnes of carbon dioxide which stays in the atmosphere for about a century, changing its chemistry and physics.

Australia’s pattern of urban development is almost unique – we have two cities with 5 million people, two with 2 million and a fifth with 1 million. Britain, with a population of 67 million in an area that could fit into Victoria, has only two cities above one million.

Our low-density cities are huge – Melbourne is bigger than London, Paris or Delhi. This leads to a very high level of car dependence, and building freeways makes cities even bigger and more car and truck dependent.

The manufacture of cement is exceptionally high in greenhouse gas emissions and its use is increasing in housing, construction generally and public works.

Only 16 per cent of Australia’s land mass is forested, and in many regional communities use of the chain-saw provides economic security – at least in the short term.

What is tactfully described as ‘enteric emissions’ from beef cattle is very significant. Methane is more damaging than CO², but stays in the atmosphere for relatively short periods.

Our very high – but uneven – levels of consumption leads to prodigious production of waste and this contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.’

Good to see BJ still using rational arguments, presented simply, to fight the good fight.

Earth’s Energy Budget

I think most of us now understand that global warming is caused by the Earth retaining every day, year and decade more of the energy that comes from the sun than it has done over the last 12,000 years (the unusually climatically stable Holocene epoch). The Earth’s Energy Budget, which has been in a relatively steady but delicate balance throughout that period, is now positive, so to speak. All this is the result of human activities during the last 200 years that have increased the concentration of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere. I suspect, however, that many of us get a bit hazy over the physics of all this: reflection, absorption, ultraviolet, infrared, albedo effect, clouds, snow, dark and light surfaces, etc.

NASA also has some relatively short and understandable storymaps on this topic, including the fact that across the world over a whole year the amount of energy from the sun that hits every square metre of the Earth’s surface is about the same as the energy produced by six 60 watt light bulbs. Who’d have thought it?

2) MAKING THE RICH RICHER

Climate change is driving the wealth gap in more ways than we think.

Temperatures may be rising globally, but not all of us feel the impact in the same way.

Over the past half century, climate change has increased inequality between countries, dragging down growth in the poorest nations whilst likely boosting prosperity in some of the richest, a new study says.

The gap between the world's poorest and richest countries is about 25% larger today than it would have been without global warming, according to Stanford University researchers in California.

African countries in tropical latitudes have been the hardest hit, with the GDP per capita of Mauritania and Niger more than 40% lower than they would have been without the rising temperatures.

The gap between the world's poorest and richest countries is about 25% larger today than it would have been without global warming 

India - which the IMF says will become the world's fifth largest economy this year - had a GDP per capita 31% lower in 2010 because of global warming, says the study. The figure for Brazil - the world's ninth largest economy - is 25%.

On the other hand, according to the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, global warming has likely contributed to the GDP per capita of several rich nations, including some of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases.

Warming penalty

Co-author Professor Marshall Burke, from the Department of Earth System Science at Stanford University, spent several years analysing the relationship between temperature and economic fluctuations in 165 countries between 1961 and 2010.

The study used more than 20 climate models to determine how much each country has warmed due to climate change attributable to humans. Then it calculated 20,000 versions of what their annual growth rate would be without temperature increase.

Burke demonstrated that growth accelerated in cool countries in years which were warmer than average, while in hot nations it slowed down.

"The historical data clearly show that crops are more productive, people are healthier and we are more productive at work when temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold," he said.

He argues that cold countries have reaped "warming benefits" from rising mercury, while hot countries have been given a "warming penalty" by being pushed further away from their optimum temperature.

There is evidence that labour productivity declines at high temperatures, that cognitive performance declines at high temperatures, interpersonal conflict increases at high temperatures.

"There are a number of pathways by which the building blocks of aggregate economic activity are influenced by temperature," says lead researcher Noah Diffenbaugh.  

"For example, agriculture. Cold countries have a very limited growing season because of the winter. On the other hand we have substantial evidence that crop yields declined sharply at high temperatures," Diffenbaugh says.

"Likewise, there is evidence that labour productivity declines at high temperatures, that cognitive performance declines at high temperatures, interpersonal conflict increases at high temperatures."

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20190502-how-global-warming-has-made-the-rich-richer

C) AND D) MAKING THE MIDDLE CLASS DISAPPEAR INTO THE LOWER ECHELON: THE POOR.

A few facts can provide context. About 2/3 of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are linked to household consumption. This is why the U.N. Environment Program’s (UNEP) 2020 Emissions Gap Report concluded that major lifestyle changes will be required.

Consumers will need to reduce their carbon footprint from a global average of around 6 tons of CO2 equivalent (C02eq) per person to 2-2.5 tons by 2030 and to 0.7 tons by 2050. Some of this is done automatically when businesses produce in more sustainable ways. For example, when utility companies substitute renewable sources for fossil fuels, the indirect emissions of consumers in heating and cooling their homes using electricity automatically decline. The consumer is not being asked to do anything except, perhaps, to switch to electric appliances. They can retain their consumption pattern. But this will not suffice. Changes in lifestyles are needed. That’s why Sustainable Development Goal 12 is responsible consumption and production.

The richest 10 percent of consumers account for 44 percent of consumption-related carbon emissions.

Every little bit counts given the scale and urgency of reducing emissions, but where consumers are concerned there is a flood of suggestions and recommendations that generate more confusion than actionable information. Research on how consumer lifestyle choices are affecting aggregate carbon emissions has lagged.

We know something about the differences between countries. The average consumer in the United States, for example, emits about 17.6 tons of CO2eq per capita, more than double that of the European Union and the U.K. (7.9 tons), and 10 times as much as India (1.7 tons). What we don’t know with any degree of robustness is how much this is simply due to higher income and spending levels in the U.S. (rich people emit more than poor people), how much is due to temperature and other natural conditions, and how much is due to policy choices.

A just transition would take into account all these issues (and unsurprisingly, available research identifies 

North America as a positive outlier in emissions). It would also help to pinpoint policy actions that can encourage consumers to reduce emissions.

AVOID-SHIFT-IMPROVE

An easy framework for thinking about lifestyle changes, developed by 

Felix Creutzig and others, is Avoid-Shift-Improve. Avoidance is best understood as reducing the overall level of consumption. For example, a key “ask” of consumers is to avoid long-haul and medium-haul flights, as these have considerable carbon emissions associated with them. Smaller houses, reductions in food waste, and living car-free (thanks to the availability of car sharing through businesses like Uber) can be added to this list. On shifting, 

use of public transport, shifting diets to reduce beef and lamb consumption, and buying local produce are part of the answer. On improving energy efficiency, transitioning to electric cars and purchasing sustainably produced products are the main drivers.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/11/23/missing-from-cop26-lifestyle-choices-of-middle-class-and-rich-consumers/

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THE MIDDLE CLASS IS MADE TO BEAR THE BRUNT OF ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING. THE RICH WILL STILL BE AFOAT ON THEIR BILLION DOLLAR YACHTS AND TRAVEL LIKE KINGS IN THEIR PRIVATE JETS NOW BURNING ECOLOGICALLY PRODUCED FAIRY DUST….

NOTED.

MEANWHILE OUR GLOBAL WARMING GENERAL SOLUTIONS SUCK LIKE USING A COUPLE OF BAND-AIDS(TM) TO PLUG A MAJOR LEAK IN A SUBMARINE, FROM THE INSIDE…. 

WE’RE IN TROUBLE BUT WE, THE NON-SCIENTIFIC BOURGEOIS, DON’T KNOW IT YET (OR DON'T WANT TO KNOW)….. WE MAY BE HOPING, LIKE SOME OF OUR FRIENDLY AMERICANS, THAT WORLD WAR THREE WILL DISTRACT US FROM THE IMPENDING DISASTER OF A WARMING PLANET….

PICTURE AT TOP BY BILL LEAK WHEN HE WAS WORKING FOR THE GOOD GUYS….

THIS BRINGS US TO SOME PREDICTIONS AND UNREALITIES…

Peter Zeihan has other concerns. In his wittily titled “The End of the World is Just the Beginning”, the geopolitical strategist suggests that a number of countries from Germany to China face insuperable demographic challenges. Our economic model, he says, rests on the assumption that the pie will always continue to grow. It has never been tested by a shrinking population. Of the host of crises envisaged by Zeihan, the most worrying is a threat to the global food supply. Billions of people face starvation, he predicts. Demographic and energy breakdowns will produce societal chaos and state collapse. From a financial perspective, more countries will resemble Argentina [IS HE TALKING ABOUT THE USA WHICH OWE 32 TRILLION TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?]. Politically, they’ll look like Pakistan [IS HE TALKING ABOUT THE USA WHICH HAS THE MOST UNDEMOCRATIC AND CORRUPT SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE?].

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2022-12-01/

I BRING PETER ZEIHAN BECAUSE HE MAKES A LOT OF PREDICTIVE ASSUMPTIONS ON YOUTUBE. HALF OF IT IS RUBBISH, THE OTHER HALF IS WISHFUL THINKING. I HAVE NO IDEA WHERE ZEIHAN IS COMING FROM POLITICALLY. IS HE ULTRA-RIGHTWING WITH A ULTRA-LEFT WING AGENDA? IS HE A SARCASTIC CAUSTIC PROPHET OF DOOM?

IN HIS VIDEO "We Are All In Trouble" - It Begins” ZEIHAN MAKES SOME RIDICULOUS ASSUMPTIONS IN REGARD TO THE SIBERIAN OILFIELDS — AND ABOUT Xi MORE OR LESS BEING A NAIVE MORON... 

ZEIHAN COULD BE RIGHT BUT I DON’T THINK SO.

Xi BEING TRICKED BY PUTIN ABOUT PUTIN’S MILITARY INTERVENTION IN UKRAINE?

BULLSHIT…

THE 1960s BUILT SIBERIAN OIL FIEDS NOT BEING ABLE TO COPE NOW WITHOUT WESTERN ENGINEERS?

BULLSHIT… THIS REMINDS ME OF MY OLD RUSSIAN TRUCK DRIVER WHO EXPLAINED TO ME HOW THEY (THE RUSSIANS) STARTED A DIESEL ENGINE IN MINUS 40 DEGREES CELSIUS. SIMPLE. THEY WOULD SET THE ENGINE ON FIRE, THEN AFTER A MINUTE OR SO, THEY WOULD START THE CAPER. 

THIS ALSO REMINDS ME OF JOINVILLE, THE FRENCH SPY CHIEF WHO MANAGED TO STEAL A TUPOLEV JET ENGINE IN PARIS, IN THE 1950s — TO DISCOVER HOW THE RUSSIANS MANAGED TO START THESE IN THE COLDEST OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON THE GROUND.

SO WHERE ARE WE UP TO?

CIVILISATION (POSSIBLY THE WESTERN CHERRY-PICKED ONE) COULD BE ON THE WAY OUT. BUT THIS WOULD NOT MEAN THE END OF HUMANITY — AND HERE LIES LESSON ONE (AND 101). EVEN WITH THE WORST OF NUCLEAR CONFLICT IMAGINABLE, SOME HUMANS WOULD SURVIVE AND WOULD HAVE LEARNED SOMETHING VALUABLE...

MEANWHILE, CONTRARILY TO PUNDITS, IT IS LIKELY THAT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WOULD BE SOON GOOD ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS MAJOR NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE. 

IS THIS WHY THE PENTAGON IS EAGER TO HAVE A NUCLEAR FIGHT BEFORE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE STOPS THIS NONSENSE? OR IS AMERICA HAVING A LAST BURN OUT HISSY-FIT, BEFORE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE REALLY TELLS US HOW TO SOLVE OUR HEGEMONIC (AND I MEAN HEGEMONIC) GLOBAL WARMING?

(MORE TO COME?)

GUS LEONISKY

CARTOONISTS SINCE 1951.

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW....