The G7 meeting moved considerably closer to disaster with the approval of a new proposal to give Zelensky US F-16 jets.

The F-16s are fourth-generation aircraft that the United States has been manufacturing for decades and selling to its allies. They are expensive and represent a leap forward in kyiv's ability to attack Russia.

It is strange that this option, repeatedly rejected by the United States, is today presented as an alternative that could change the course of the war. After the before and after role of the Javelin, Switch Blade, Himars and Leopard II tanks, it's finally the turn of the F-16, the last step before the F-35.

 

by Marcelo Ramírez

 

F-16s require extensive training for selected pilots, which means time, resources and, most importantly, advance notice for the Russians. Military specialists warn that in reality, these planes will be easy prey for advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems, including the S-400, which can "see" them and shoot them down before they can act.

Additionally, the F-16 is designed for a theater of operations where there are adequate operating bases, airstrips and maintenance supply chains. Ukraine does not have this infrastructure, which was pulverized by Russia several years ago.

The possibilities are reduced to operations from Polish or neighboring bases, which would be a very risky situation, which Moscow has seriously warned against. Putin is being pushed to his limits with more offensive and dangerous weapons that are produced outside the conflict zone. So far, Russia has contented itself with creating a system for destroying equipment and the men who use it.

Russian actions consist of inviting Ukrainian forces into battle in complex situations, driven by the need to present good news as required by Western propaganda.

The fall of Bakhmout, Artemovsk for the Russians, exacerbated the situation. After months of propaganda where the Ukrainians themselves underlined the strategic importance of this city and of reckless sending of weapons and men setting themselves the impossible task of resisting the musicians of Wagner, the impending defeat made the thing more explicit.

Eventually, what was predictable, but no less acceptable to Western leaders, happened.

The only possible answer would be negotiation by not only accepting the territories conquered by Russia, but by putting on the table Putin's demands, a return to NATO's pre-1997 borders.

A little over a year ago, it seemed inconceivable that Putin would demand the neutrality of Eastern Europe as a non-negotiable safe area, but today we see that not only is this demand achievable, but that it is much more important and that it envisages a redefinition of the bases of world power.

Russia, like China, asks that its importance be reflected in fair international organizations and no longer dependent on the Atlanticist mood.

Faced with this reality, two basic positions are emerging in the West, one of de-escalation through the search for a peace process, the other of escalation towards nuclear confrontation, at least in Europe.

Zelensky's visit to the Vatican ended up reflecting these differences, with a visibly discourteous attitude toward Pope Francis. This rebuff, unworthy of a world leader of the importance he perceives, is striking.

Even if the pope's peace proposals are not considered, diplomatic courtesy indicates that the possibility of negotiating will be formally accepted, even if there is no intention to do so. Not only did this not happen, but Zelensky quite unnecessarily and blatantly snubbed the leader of the majority faith in the world, namely the Catholic faith. It is also quite strange that the Vatican did not plan and agree on some minimal measures with the Ukrainian delegation.

The attire, aforementioned statements, and symbolism, including gestures, of the comedian-turned-leader of the free world are hard to justify.

The reasons for this behavior may remain unclear, but it is clear that there is a growing division on the Western Front. The United States has around it a circle of close allies – subordinates who have benefited from economic supports which have enabled them to have a better standard of living for their societies than others, and who follow the orders of Washington to the letter.

This circle is still relatively solid, even if it shows some cracks due to the disappointing results of the current strategy.

Another sphere of nations, once linked to the Anglo-Saxon world, is beginning to break away from it and take on an air of independence. Petrodollar mainstay Saudi Arabia has ignored Western demands and shown striking independence.

 

India, seen as a potential AUKUS ally, has shown many signs of independence, as have most ASEAN nations.

The bad news continues for the West, as Erdoğan, who has become a nightmare for his former allies, was portrayed as a leader whose power would end after the election. The polls, once again, told the West what it wanted to hear and claimed that the Turkish leader would lose the election by 10 points.

Western hopes are dwindling as they fall half a point short in the first round to clinch victory. So much so that there are rumors of a new Turkish spring, this time to try to oust him from power.

If the CIA coup with the religious Guillen had not succeeded at the time, this one has a much lesser chance. Not only because Erdoğan has already cleansed himself of putschist elements, but also because the geopolitical environment is different. The Atlanticist power is diluted and the Sino-Russian axis consolidates its power.

How to change the equation? The decline of the West took place on the civilian level, but the military question was added to it. Not only did Bakhmout fall, but we can see that if the F-16s remain a promise and that Western tanks are arriving in dribs and drabs and with second-rate models, the same is not true for anti-aircraft systems.

Each Western country has sent its best, but nothing dents the Russian arsenal. Older Soviet systems are proving to be more efficient than the newer and more expensive Western systems.

The United States has played the most difficult role

The United States played the card of firmness, by setting up the Norwegian system of advanced surface-to-air missiles (NASAMS), supposed to protect Washington and the White House.

This system suffered the same fate as the Patriot PAC-3, the latest in American air defense, which was the subject of enormous publicity.

In the first known crossfire with Russian systems, Ukraine lost the first complex. It is not yet possible to know if it is a total or partial loss, since there are several modules. 30 shots at the rate of 5 million dollars per unit in a few minutes clearly showed that such a cost is impossible to bear.

Add to this that none of them managed to destroy the Kinjal hypersonic missile, and in the process several launch modules, radars and possibly the central control module were destroyed, and the joke is appropriate for the West.

There is a second system that Russia intends to find to destroy and put an end to the adventure of the Ukrainian Patriots.

If the blow to the wallet has been more than considerable, the most important problem is that of prestige. The cream of American technology was effortlessly defeated by Russia in a single operation combining several actions.

The prestige of the United States was destroyed and it confirmed what we already knew: the Patriot systems are not effective, the Saudis know it, as they discovered during their confrontation with the Yemenis.

Does it make sense to spend billions on systems that are far inferior to cheaper Russian systems?

These doubts grow and break trust, and strike the military industry, incidentally, in its credibility. The British are trying to help with their Shadow Storms, stealth missiles that promised to shake Russia and which, three days after they were announced to be in service, began to be shot down.

As with the HIMARS, it seems that the Russian electronic warfare was not just propaganda and is very effective, confusing targets, generating fake missiles, changing coordinates and a whole host of other actions that have all have one purpose: to put costly Western systems out of harm's way.

Depleted uranium that has already contaminated land Russia considers its own, long-range missiles, fourth-generation fighters, the West is advancing step by step, the escalation does not stop and nothing works. Military war, like economic war, seems to have its fate sealed; it only seems that a decisive turn of the wheel can change the course which is the defeat of the West.

This is precisely the debate in Atlanticism, at least where the decisions are taken: escalation towards nuclear war or resignation to the fact that the world will be multipolar and renegotiation of the conditions? It is nothing more than a capitulation which will have to be presented as a victory, but which is not credible.

There is no alternative, the roads are closed and all lead to one of the two possibilities. Western societies, absent and intoxicated by propaganda, must react while there is still time. And that time is running out.

The game is accelerating, Russia seems more and more solid and the West is divided between negotiators and suicide bombers.

From the internal quarrel in the West will come the final result, and we will know whether or not there will be war. We won't really know, it will happen, if it does, in a few hours. When we realize it, it will probably be over and we will only know who will be the winner, if there is one.

source: Noticias Holisticas

 

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