Tuesday 26th of November 2024

troubling economics....

During his 31 months in office, US President Joe Biden has repeatedly accused China of betting that Washington cannot keep up with Beijing and claimed that he has told Chinese leaders that it's never a good bet to bet against the United States.

Such accusations are bizarre, to say the least, because the Chinese people haven't heard their leaders saying such things about the US. As China's Ambassador to the US Xie Feng said at the recent Aspen Security Forum, China does not intend to challenge or displace any country, and instead of outcompeting others, Chinese people's focus is on "outdoing ourselves".

Chinese leaders, senior officials and lawmakers are laser focused on domestic issues and never indulge in loose talk about other countries, unlike their US counterparts.

Just last week, Biden called the Chinese economy a "ticking time bomb", but his faux pas on China's GDP growing close to 2 percent a year was quickly pointed out by Reuters, which reported that China's economy grew 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023 and 6.3 percent in the second quarter.

It is true that the Chinese economy is facing challenges, and growing at a slower pace. But that is because of its massive size and its switch to a high-quality, innovation-driven and sustainable development model. In its World Economic Outlook released last month, the International Monetary Fund projected that China's economy will grow 5.2 percent this year and 4.5 percent next year, compared with the 1.8 percent and 1.0 percent forecast for the US economy.

The IMF's economic outlook report was published a week before Fitch Ratings downgraded the US' long-term credit rating on Aug 2 from the top-ranked AAA to AA+, and warned of a possible downgrade of dozens of US banks, all of which would hurt Biden's approval rating which is only 44 percent while his disapproval rating is a staggering 54 percent.

So Biden's not-so unveiled attack against China could be an attempt to distract the American people from the problems his administration is facing, including the US' national debt of more than $32.66 trillion. Back in April, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had called the US' national debt "a ticking time bomb".

The US is still the largest economy in terms of nominal GDP. But the relative decline of the US and other G7 economies is no secret — nor is emerging economies' growing importance in the global economy a secret. As a matter of fact, PricewaterhouseCoopers has forecast that the top 10 global economies, in terms of purchasing power parity GDP, in 2050 will be in the order of China, India, the US, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Four of the top six countries are part of BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which will hold its summit in South Africa next week. The five BRICS members' combined GDP (in PPP terms) is higher than that of the G7 nations. In fact, China's economy overtook the US in PPP terms in 2014, and is now 23 percent larger than the US' according to the IMF.

It's true that China still lags behind the US in per capita GDP terms, and that is exactly why achieving healthy growth and improving the living standards of the Chinese people have been the top priority of the Chinese government.

The rise of the emerging economies is worth celebrating because it means the world is becoming fairer for the vast number of developing nations. But since the US does not want its global dominance to be challenged, Biden has rolled out numerous measures, including his latest order to ban or restrict US investment in China's key tech sectors, in a bid to slow down China's growth.

According to the US' new playbook, Washington's relationship with Beijing is a zero-sum game. But by claiming it is in "stiff competition" with China, the US is actually attempting to sabotage China's development. Perhaps that is what prompted Harvard University scholar Joseph Nye to remind the Aspen forum that the US-China relationship doesn't have to be zero sum, a clear warning to the Biden administration to cultivate a healthy mindset in international relations.

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https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202308/18/WS64dea56ea31035260b81cc7d.html

 

 

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tatters....

 

A string of bankruptcies at German department stores, soaring interest rates in the United States, a real estate crisis in China...In recent weeks, worrying signs for the global economy's health have been piling up. "Business insolvencies are on the rise everywhere; they have already exceeded their 2019 levels in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Sweden," said Bruno de Moura Fernandes, an economist with French credit insurer COFACE. World trade has entered a recession – down 0.7% in the first quarter – and geopolitical risks continue to take a toll on economic activity. "There is no real disaster," according to Charles-Henri Colombier, an economist with Rexecode. "But the outlook is gloomy, and the economy is likely to show persistent weakness over the second half of the year."

At the start of 2023, major concerns linked to the energy crisis had rapidly vanished, giving way to a partly excessive optimism: Europe could do without Russian gas, China was finally reopening its economy, and tourism was back on its feet. "But manufacturing and business climate indicators turned out to be rather poor, and we're now back to measured pessimism," said Hélène Baudchon, an economist at BNP Paribas.

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/08/29/world-economy-shows-signs-of-slowdown_6114400_19.html

 

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economic fudge....

 

BY Veniamin Popov

 

Many observers believe that the most important development in the US financial and economic situation was Fitch’s downgrade of the country’s debt rating from its highest level of AAA to AA+ in early August this year, with the agency noting “a steady deterioration in governance standards over the past 20 years,” adding that “repeated political standoffs over the debt limit and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management.”

The same agency downgraded 10 more US banks a few days later.

Bloomberg says the outlook of the US economy promises to be painful, especially given the political polarization and geopolitical confrontation.

The psychological climate in the country leaves a lot to be desired. This is due to the exacerbation of internal political infighting and the problems of social life.

The recent works of Richard Hanania, a rising star among conservative writers and intellectually engaged people who preach ideas of white supremacy, have become increasingly popular. He said, “We need more police, more prison, and more surveillance of black people.” An entire group of Silicon Valley billionaires and millionaires have showered Hanania with attention and praise for his work. According to New York Times Opinion Columnist Jamelle Bouie, the purpose of this support is simple: “If some groups are simply destined to be at the bottom, there is no question about their disadvantage, isolation and poverty. There is absolutely no question about a society that generates deprivation, isolation and poverty. And there’s nothing you can do, because there’s nothing you can do: these people are the way they are.” The notion of racial hierarchy works to normalize a wide range of inequalities.

The growing divisions between the Republican and Democratic parties are increasingly high on the domestic American agenda.

Even the American media believes that the filing of formal charges in Federal Court against former President Donald Trump on charges of “conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy against the rights of citizens, and obstructing and attempting to obstruct official proceedings,” is a milestone in judicial practice in the United States.

Trump pleaded not guilty and called the situation “a very sad day for America,” and, according to him, “Biden has lost his mind and is an insane disaster leading America to hell.”

Polls show that support for the charges against the former president diverges along party lines: while a majority of Democrats accept them, an overwhelming majority of Republicans reject them. This is another demonstration of the American divide and the profound divisions in American society. Newspapers loyal to Democrats accuse Trump of basically all sorts of wrongdoing, stressing that he has betrayed America.

The Republicans are fighting back in their own way: they have initiated impeachment proceedings against the current president, accusing him of bribery and fraud, and they have also secured the appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate Hunter Biden. This presents serious difficulties for the current host of the White House.

Many observers believe the 2024 presidential campaign has the promise of being the most contentious and divisive in American history.

The Emirati newspaper Gulf News on August 7 pointed out in this regard that Trump’s accusations have not diminished his popularity, on the contrary, it is growing as his problems increase: meanwhile, if the election were held now, both Trump and Biden would each have 43% of the vote.

In the face of this growing country polarization, internal problems are escalating.

Over the past few years, deaths in the US have been on the rise – among them deaths from despair – a social crisis involving older middle-aged white men, as well as gun violence, drug overdoses, maternal deaths and juvenile deaths. By the year 2000, the New York Times reported that about 400,000 Americans were dying each year; 622,000 – in 2019.

According to an August 11 statement from the US government, the number of people who committed suicide in 2022 in the US reached a record 49,000, up 2.6 percent from the previous year.

In the year 2020, the European Union reported 5,800 overdose deaths, in a population of 440 million, in the same year, the United States with a population of 330 million people reported 68,000, this figure then rose to 80,000 by 2021 and to 107,000 by 2022.

America now has 22 times more gun homicides compared to EU countries.

The US fatality rate in car accidents in 2021 was 4 times higher than in Germany. The Economist reported that more than 5,000 Americans died in workplace accidents the same year, compared to 123 in Britain; and Americans are nearly twice as likely to die in a fire compared to Western Europeans and more than twice as likely to drown as the Dutch.

The United States border with Mexico is over 3,000 kilometers long and several million migrants have accumulated there: the absence of a clear policy on the migration problem threatens to become the greatest mistake in the country’s history, according to the American media.

America’s deteriorating infrastructure is becoming more and more evident: hardly a week goes by without a major railroad disaster. Besides acute social topics that cause intense debates, such as, for example, the ban on abortion, the American press writes about the falling educational standards in the country. The head of the American Library Association states that more than 13% of the adult population cannot read and write above a 3rd grade level, which is an 8-year-old child.

Censorship, meanwhile, is on the rise across the country, with 1,606 publications being challenged by relevant agencies on the grounds of having unacceptable racial or gender claims.

The actions of the US administration in dealing with the aftermath of the Hawaii fire (nearly 100 people dead and several hundred missing) are being criticized in the press as not enough attention is being paid to emergency services, especially against the continuing transfer of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the US administration is trying its best to accuse Russia of violating the international law guidelines, especially in connection with the Ukrainian crisis: a US official said that President Biden had given instructions to collect evidence of Russia’s involvement in war crimes.

Washington’s hypocrisy in this matter is so obvious that even the Egyptian newspaper Al Ahram noted it, which wrote on August 10 of this year: during the first 42 days of the war against Iraq in 1991, American forces dropped 88 thousand tons of bombs and missiles on the country, the equivalent of 7 nuclear bombs of the same size that the US dropped on Hiroshima. Likewise, they fired about 6,000 charges of combined uranium. The main recipient of this destructive force was civilian objects, everything connected with the maintenance of human life and activity: power plants, electrical grids, water treatment plants, telephone exchanges, food processing plants, irrigation facilities, livestock farms, garages, public transportation, railway stations, bridges and highways, oil wells and refineries, gas stations, petrochemical plants, sewage treatment plants, textile factories, universities, colleges, hospitals, clinics, mosques, museums, antiquities, shopping malls, etc.

There were over 20,000 homes destroyed, to say nothing of the Amiriyah shelter where hundreds of civilians, mostly women, children and the elderly, were killed by two American “smart bombs.”

The American policy duplicity becomes blatant against the background of increasing domestic problems of the United States: all attempts to divert attention with unsubstantiated accusations against other countries cause only irritation in the world and Washington’s credibility is rapidly declining.

 

Veniamin Popov, Director of the “Center for Partnership of Civilizations” in MGIMO (U) MFA of Russia, Candidate of Historical Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

 

 

READ MORE:

https://journal-neo.su/2023/08/24/the-us-is-going-through-a-very-dangerous-period-in-its-entire-history/

 

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