Thursday 28th of September 2023

the war can be provoked into being, and the victim blamed.....

Preparations for the United States to launch a war against China are far more advanced than many people realise. And when you look at just how much work has been done, it no longer looks like a matter of “if”, but more of a question of “when”.

Quietly, the United States has gone through a multi-step preparation process in Asia.


Here’s what the U.S. is doing to prepare for war in Asia     By Phill Hynes


First, frame China as the problem

To start with, China is being framed as the “bad actor” challenging the “International Rules Based Order” in the narrative. It is China which is threatening the stability of the region, according to repeated allegations. The U.S., in contrast, is the heroic saviour from far away, militarising Asia to bring peace and safety to the region through what they refer to as “an integrated deterrence strategy”.

This framing serves several purposes.

First, and most importantly, it builds consensus among the west’s allies to work to gather the unwavering support of the people they claim to represent.

Second, by establishing China’s bad-guy positioning early, it makes the timing flexible. It is abundantly clear by now that this “Shaping of the Theatre” in respect of Taiwan is very advanced; almost as advanced as the shaping of the Ukraine theatre for war with Russia was in 2021.

Third, it provides material so that the war can be provoked into being, and the victim blamed; China will be presented as wholly responsible for any and all conflicts that break out.

Could conflict really happen?

But is a war really possible? It would be a big step, but the possibility is very real. It is worth remembering the vacillation of many people around the world about the tensions around Ukraine in 2020.

Many people were skeptical that real fighting would happen—including Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. People assumed that the various parties were just posturing. And yet, here we are, one and half years into a very real conflict.

The Ukraine conflict was flagged well in advance of fighting breaking out – and the same can be said of the Taiwan situation.

Creating pacts

The preparations for war have taken several steps forward with quiet changes in pacts and agreements. This started in June 2022 with the modification to Article 5 of NATO’s mutual defense pact, which says that an attack on one is an attack on all.

This forces others to fight with, or on behalf of, the United States.

The geographical remit of NATO has been quietly expanded to include the Indo-Pacific region. NATO increased their “Major Non-NATO Allies” membership list to include Ukraine, South Korea, and others. This includes the Chinese territory of Taiwan, under the auspices of the Taiwan Relations Act. This is yet to be signed, awaiting final passage at an optimal time of the U.S. administrations choosing.

In short, it is undeniable that the United States has spent several years, at least since 2016, carefully preparing for conflict in Asia. They have been insidiously shaping the theatre for war on multiple levels. It will be a hybrid, multi-domain, full spectrum effort when ultimately ready for launch.

When will it start? It is inching closer with each passing month and week. There have been many deliberate acts of escalating provocation over recent years.

Turning Australia into a partner 

The U.S. shaping of the theatre for war in Asia has been a gradual strategy using a hub and spoke approach.

Take Australia. The AUKUS defence agreement was signed between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in 2022. But with a decades-long development program, the weapons that will ultimately come into being were clearly not intended for near-term use. No; AUKUS has been about turning Australia into a spoke in the hub—a partner who cannot say no.

The AUKUS pact was designed to close gaps in existing defence agreements, and pacts between western allies, and also to lower the bar for compelling the signatories of said pacts and agreements to participate actively in a potential war.

It doesn’t matter if the nuclear-powered subs won’t be ready for many years – look, the U.S. can say, Australia is already a partner who has to fight in our wars; they signed up for this.

Use of the Philippines 

The announcement earlier this year of additional access to bases in the Philippines by the U.S. is also part of the hub and spoke shaping.

That story really began in 2016 with the revised posture of the U.S. Marine Core. It made a doctrinal switch, abandoning heavy armour and artillery in favour of more nimble and versatile mobile missile batteries. The transitional period for such a doctrinal change at that level of operational unit usually lies between six and seven years. Bases relatively near China are needed.

Before, the U.S. had five operational bases in the Philippines. That number has now grown to nine, according to reports.

But is it really nine in total? The National Security Secretary of the Philippines challenged the base expansion; however, interestingly, she did not simply refer to four new bases. She instead referred to the implementation of “21 projects”, questioning the risks presented.

This correlates to the suggestion that the new bases are likely intended as Forward Operating Bases with satellite bases connected to them, to service the deployment of scores of mobile missile units and their force protection personnel.

As recently as the past month, Japan and the Philippines acknowledged they are close to signing a defense pact in the form of a Visiting Forces Agreement, which will incidentally accelerate another emergent trilateral alliance between Japan, Philippines and the U.S. And, yes, of course it has the mandatory ugly acronym: JAPHUS.

Therefore, the integration of the Philippines as a major hub in the U.S. strategy is almost complete.

Camp David summit 

Then of course there are the U.S.’s traditional outplacements in Asia. President Joe Biden hosted a trilateral summit in Camp David on the 18th of August 2023 between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.

It was lauded by the U.S. (and echoed by Western mainstream media) as a necessary and timely display of unity by the West and their Asian allies as a means to contain and counter the rise of China, which they portray as a source of conflict with other nations. (Projection, much?)

They alleged that China had predatory hegemonic and aggressive designs on its neighbours and beyond, and presented a clear and present danger to the much trumpeted international “Rules-Based Order” ordained by the platinum club of rich Western nations.

(We shall not even get into the stunning hypocrisy of the hysterical coverage by the media of similarly designed defence and security alignments between nation states such as China and Russia, or other non-platinum club nations.)

The recent Camp David trilateral meeting is not merely just another spoke in the hub development, drawing Asia ever closer into the divisive strategy of the United States and its much sought-after Cold War 2.0.

It is a very dangerous next step, escalating already dangerously high tensions between Asian neighbours.

Japan and South Korea are critical hubs in this U.S. strategy. Their defence pacts and agreements with the U.S., Australia, Philippines, U.K. and between other nations are the spokes. The inclusion of agreements regarding assurances for the defence of Taiwan are designed explicitly to be interlocking.

Raising tensions 

These interlocking defence pacts and agreements, layered upon each other, are spreading like tentacles across the region.

They are exacerbating problems with already fragile fault lines and raising tensions to a dangerous level.

Which is exactly what they are intended to do.

The irony, of course, is that the media warnings about a dangerous superpower poised to cause enormous harm in Asia, is absolutely true.

But that superpower is not China.


This article is published in partnership with





destroying paradise....

The US Air Force is stripping away tracts of jungle to make room for new airfields, a senior commander said, noting the move is part of plans to bolster American forces in the Indo-Pacific.

Speaking to reporters at an event hosted by the Air and Space Forces Association, Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kenneth Wilsbach described efforts to refurbish defunct US air bases – including a World War II-era installation on Tinian, a small island near Guam.

“We're going to be clearing out the jungle [on Tinian, and] we're going to be resurfacing some of the surfaces there so that we will have a fairly large and very functional Agile Combat Employment base, an additional base to be able to operate from and we have several other projects like that around the region that we'll be getting after,” Wilsbach said on Monday.

To accomplish that goal, the Air Force has requested additional funding from lawmakers in its 2024 budget proposal, the general added, saying the new bases would be part of a “hub-and-spoke”network across Asia intended to “deter” Beijing.

“Every single additional airfield that I can operate from… in a contingency or crisis or a conflict is another airfield that China has to put into their targeting folders, and then allocate resources toward them, which dilutes their ability to shut us completely down,” he continued.

Though President Joe Biden recently declared that his administration does not seek to “contain China,” US officials have repeatedly dubbed the People’s Republic America’s top rival. Since he took office in 2021, Biden has approved near-monthly transits of the disputed Taiwan Strait by US warships, while the Pentagon is pushing to dramatically expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific. 

Citing advances in Chinese military capabilities, Wilsbach said the People’s Liberation Army had “improved a lot over the last few decades,” arguing that Washington must “enhance warfighting advantage; advance theater posture; strengthen alliances and partnerships; and shape the information environment” in order to keep up.

We want to continue to evolve so that we enhance our warfighting capabilities with the primary objective of being to deter violence in the Indo-Pacific, but if that deterrence doesn't work, we have to be ready to be able to win. And so the way that we will be doing that is modernizing our force,” he said. 

Located on an island some 110 miles north of Guam, the Tinian military installation previously served as the largest US B-29 bomber base during World War II, and has since hosted periodic Navy and Marine wargames. Washington maintains a major naval base in Guam, a strategic island deep in the Pacific.