An Ifop poll commissioned by the French weekly Journal du Dimanche found that 52 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with newly appointed Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who was named by Emmanuel Macron after two months of political deadlock. The poll, which had a margin of error of up to 3.1 points, also found that almost three out of four respondents believed the conservative prime minister would quickly be toppled by a no-confidence vote.

https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240909-just-over-half-of-french-satisfied-with-macron-s-choice-of-barnier-as-pm-poll-finds

...

Uncertainty, in Spiegelhalter’s view, is a relationship between an individual and the outside world. And, because of that, our personal judgments play an essential role whenever we are faced with it, “whether we are thinking about our lives, weighing up what people tell us, or doing scientific research”. And tolerance of uncertainty varies hugely among people: some are excited by unpredictability, while others are crippled by anxiety.

...

At another point he addresses the important question of how long it would take a group of monkeys to compose the works of Shakespeare. He installed a Monkey Simulator program on his PC and left it running for days. After 113m imaginary monkey keystrokes (equivalent to about 26 days for 50 monkeys typing one character per second) the best the simians could do was “we lover”, which appears in Love’s Labour’s Lost, Act 2, Scene 1.

All of this is typical of the astute way that Spiegelhalter sweetens an important pill. Most of us (including journalists) are woefully ignorant about probability, chance and risk. Mass media consistently creates needless alarm about small risks (travelling by air) while ignoring real or more significant ones (driving to work). People are hoodwinked by anti-vax propaganda and spooked by pure coincidences. Politicians smugly repeat ancient tropes about “lies, damned lies and statistics”, and constituents nod complacently. It’s all stuff aimed at triggering Kanheman’s System 1. Faced with such wilful blindness, most academics would have shrugged and returned to their rooms. Fortunately, Spiegelhalter is made of sterner stuff.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/sep/22/the-art-of-uncertainty-by-david-spiegelhalter-review-a-search-for-sense-in-probability-and-chance

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National Rally parliamentary group leader Marine Le Pen and over two dozen other party figures and others are on trial over allegations of the misuse of funds allocated by the European Parliament to pay assistants working exclusively for the party. Sputnik asked a respected French political observer what the case is really about.

Prosecutors in the case against Marine Le Pen and her colleagues allege that between 2004 and 2016, the populist right party, then known as the National Front, misused millions of euros in EU moneys, spending cash doled out for parliamentary aides on personnel including a bodyguard for Ms. Le Pen and her father, a chief of staff, a secretary, and a graphic designer.

Le Pen denies any wrongdoing, accusing the prosecution of “fabricating” “preconceived ideas” about the case, assuring that the party has “not violated any political and regulatory rules of the European Parliament,” and promising to present “serious and extremely solid arguments” in the party’s defense in the coming months.

“Parliamentary assistants do not work for the parliament. They are political assistants to elected officials, political by definition,” Le Pen maintains. “I have the impression that [preconceived ideas] have been fabricated by the prosecution, the European Parliament,” she said in her testimony Wednesday.

The European Parliament wants €2.7 million in compensation from the National Rally for "financial and reputational damages," accounting for €1 million already paid back by the party following a probe.

The 56-year-old politician served as National Rally president between 2011 and 2021, worked as a member of European Parliament between 2009 and 2017, and ran for president three times between 2012 and 2022, taking 41.5% of the vote in the 2022 race in the runoff against incumbent Emmanuel Macron.

Separately, Le Pen and her colleagues could now face up to 10 years in jail and a €1 million fine, if found guilty of misusing the EU funds. Le Pen could also be banned from running for office for five to ten years, which would bar her from running in the 2027 presidential election.

Notably, the National Rally and its allies won some 142 seats in snap French legislative elections in July, taking 53 additional seats in the 577-seat parliament as pro-Macron centrists saw their numbers drop by 86 seats, to 159 total. The populist right party emerged as kingmaker capable of bringing down the Macron-appointed government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier this week after the populist left New Popular Front filed a no-confidence motion over the government’s undemocratic representation and austere budgetary plans.

Le Pen had earlier promised to keep Barnier “under surveillance,” but to give his government a chance, on the condition that any new tax hikes are complemented by measures to assist the lower and middle classes, and measure are taken to tighten controls on immigration and measures against crime, including narcotics and human trafficking.

Mainstream observers expect the trial to push the National Rally to focus its attention and resources on defending themselves instead of fully playing their opposition role, with some suggesting that Le Pen’s years-long campaign to successfully broaden the party’s base could be seriously marred if she or her colleagues are found guilty.

The trial is a chance for the establishment to cast shade on her party, and “a good opportunity to bring what is now France’s leading party to its knees,” Dr. Edouard Husson, a historian and publisher of Le Courrier des Strateges – a French geopolitical affairs journal, told Sputnik.

“I can't comment on the facts of the case. But I can talk about the context. The alleged facts date back to a time when Ms. Le Pen's party had few elected members, but had major funding needs because of its solid foothold in France, the need to finance a party machine etc... The French system for financing political parties is disadvantageous for small parties or parties on the rise, such as the Front National/Rassemblement National at the time – since it grants funding on the basis of the number of votes obtained. I therefore assume that what Ms. Le Pen and the other defendants are accused of is using European Parliament funding beyond what is reasonable. Obviously, the Rassemblement National's fear is that it may be judged more severely than other parties,” Husson explained.

“Let’s not kid ourselves. The more our French governments talk about the independence of the judiciary, the less they practice it,” Husson said, suggesting that the trial is obviously politicized, and perhaps linked to the Barnier government’s desire to survive politically.

“Madame Le Pen’s conviction will therefore be limited, in exchange for – at least passive – support for the Barnier government,” the observer said, predicting that Le Pen will not be made ineligible for another shot at the presidency in 2027.

On one hand, “anything that appears to persecute the [National Rally] is good for the party: it encourages protest voters to support it,” Husson emphasized.

Indeed, UnHerd contributor William Nattrass has suggested that the use of US-style political “lawfare” against Le Pen could end up “backfiring” on her opponents, with a guilty verdict and barring from office threatening to trigger a “political earthquake [that] would shake the entire EU.”

On the other, Husson doesn’t rule out that some in Le Pen’s party may try to take advantage of the trial to consolidate their own positions.

“In my opinion, the danger comes from elsewhere: Jordan Bardella, the party’s young president, could use any weakening of Madame Le Pen’s position to try to steal her nomination as a presidential candidate in 2027. Obviously, this would be a big mistake, from the point of view of the [party], because Marine Le Pen is the party’s strength. But the media system will do whatever it takes to turn Jordan Bardella’s head and make him rebel against the woman who made his political career,” Husson said.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20241005/le-pen-trial-opportunity-for-establishment-to-try-to-bring-frances-leading-party-to-its-knees-1120427748.html

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