China has recently praised Australia’s independent foreign policy, with Xi Jinping and Anthony Albanese holding friendly talks at the G20 and planning a future meeting in China. This highlights Beijing’s effort to court traditional US allies amid concerns over a potential second Donald Trump term in the White House.

The elephant in the room at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro is Trump’s incoming second term. President-elect Trump has proposed tariffs of between 60 and 100 percent on Chinese goods, and a tax of between 10 and 20 percent on every product imported from all US trading partners. With full control of the House and Senate, and without the straitjacket of re-election concern, Trump is likely to go further than his first term four years ago. After his charm offence in Peru, Xi Jinping continues to seek support from other countries in the face of Trump’s second shock. Australia seems to be a key target. 

Before the Xi-Albanese meeting, China Daily, the English mouthpiece of the CCP, praised Albanese’s statecraft as strategic autonomy independent of the US influence, which “serves Australia’s interests best.” It concluded with a suggestion: “(Australia) might offer some useful reference for those struggling to strike such a balance.” This is notable considering the Chinese propaganda machine’s usual reluctance to compliment foreign governments. 

Chinese leaders, to some extent, appear satisfied with the recent bilateral relationship. Since 2022, leadership meetings have stabilised Australia-China fluctuation, and most tariffs imposed during the pandemic have been removed. The obstacles around China’s human rights situation and regional coercion generally did not make a splash in their relations. Earlier this month, a record number of Australian companies joined the China International Import Expo, the largest trade show in the world, where Don Farrell declared that trade with China could grow to AUD$400 billion, compared to $327 billion last year. 

Against this warm backdrop, in his bilateral talk with Anthony Albanese, Xi attempted to persuade Albanese to stand with Beijing as a supporter and defender of economic globalisation and free trade against protectionism to realise common development. He also invited Albanese to visit China next year. The prime minister responded positively: “Australia is a trading country…Trade is flowing more freely to the benefit of both countries.” 

By downplaying Australia’s concern over human rights, regional security, and China’s support for Russia’s invasion, the Chinese official press release depicted a warm dialogue atmosphere. It highlighted Australia’s position against decoupling, insistence on a “One-China policy,” and willingness to cooperate on energy transition and climate change. 

The amicable tone of Chinese media is not merely an affirmation of the thawing of China-Australia relations over the past two years but also reflects Beijing’s attempt to strengthen ties with other countries ahead of Trump’s inauguration, in anticipation of intensifying trade conflicts.

Xi’s prominent engagement following his absence from last year’s summit in India underscores his strategic preparation for the anticipated harsh measures from the Trump administration. During his visit to South America, Xi sought to forge a coalition of free trade advocates capable of countering Trump’s potential trade war with China. Over the course of a week, apart from the US, Xi held private meetings with leaders from New Zealand, Japan, Brazil, Peru, Chile, South Korea, and Singapore. Considering the tone of Chinese media and its diplomatic overtures, Australia has undoubtedly become a key element in Xi Jinping’s outreach. 

Xi’s olive branch can be traced back to Australia’s position in Trump’s first trade war against China. At that time, Australia was not taking any sides in the dispute, saying “neither major player comes to this dispute with purity.” Simon Birmingham also urged against inflaming trade war with a clear message: “We’ve been very clear in our position all along that we do not approve or support the US actions of increasing tariffs in a unilateral way on Chinese goods…The application of those sorts of unilateral tariff actions is not something we have welcomed, and it may well be [a breach of WTO rules].” 

A clearer convergence between China’s and Australia’s views on global trade became evident in their shared attitude toward the WTO, particularly as the US obstructed its capacity to function in Trump’s first term. In December 2019, Birmingham stated that “Australia is disappointed that the Appellate Body is now unable to function. The eroding of the dispute settlement function of the WTO undermines the effectiveness of the trading rules that we and many other nations rely upon.” The next month, Australia partnered with China and other countries to establish an interim arrangement to solve trade disputes. 

These collective memories about Australia’s position in Trump’s first term largely reflect China’s self-claimed position in global trade: a WTO-centred multilateral trade system against any form of unilateralism and protectionism. Xi repeated this statement in his private meeting with Albanese. Obviously, this is what he referred to as “common ground and the sharing of benefits.” 

Australia’s independent position has long been ignored by China’s great-power-centric mindset and simply labelled as a follower of the US. However, under Trump’s long shadow, China’s recent interest and attention to Australia may provide Canberra with a chance to leverage its importance and rebalance its position amid great power politics.

All in all, attention means opportunity.

https://johnmenadue.com/is-trumps-long-shadow-a-chance-for-the-australia-china-relationship/

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