The Netherlands once again finds itself at a political crossroads. After years of turbulence and ideological fragmentation, the liberal-centrist party D66 (Democraten 66), led by Rob Jetten, scored a narrow yet striking victory compared with the previous election, rising from nine seats in 2023 to twenty-six in the 2025 snap election.

 

As Geert Wilders’ Far Right Stumbles, Can Rob Jetten’s Progressive Liberals Rebuild the Dutch Centre?

Ricardo Martins

 

It marks a spectacular turnaround for a country long defined by populism and political deadlock—from the thirteen years of centre-right rule under Mark Rutte’s VVD to the turbulent government of Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV, which won the election but, to form a coalition, had to appoint a technocratic prime minister rather than a figure from within the political establishment.

But as many Dutch people know, winning an election is only half the battle. The other half—forming a viable government—may prove far more difficult.

A Fragmented Political Landscape

For 13 years, the Netherlands was governed by Rutte’s VVD, steering a cautious centre-right course. Then came 2023, when Wilders’ PVV shocked Europe by winning the election and forming a short-lived coalition that soon collapsed over immigration disputes. Now, the political pendulum has swung back toward the centre, but with a fractured Parliament where no party holds a clear majority.

According to NOS reporting, the only viable coalition that reaches a majority of 86 seats would be a four-party mix “through the middle”: D66, VVD, GroenLinks–PvdA, and the Christian Democrats (CDA). The alternative “centre-right” combination—D66, VVD, CDA, and the right-wing JA21—falls short at 75 seats. This arithmetic already signals that coalition-building will be an intricate, if not precarious, process.

After years of populist noise, the Dutch electorate showed tiredness of Geert Wilders and may have rediscovered the quiet power of moderation 

D66’s Victory and What It Means

The D66 surge is widely interpreted as both a vote for optimism and a rebuke of far-right populism. The party’s message of inclusiveness, European cooperation, and pragmatic reform contrasted sharply with the PVV’s divisive rhetoric.

As Professor Henk van der Kolk of the University of Amsterdam explained, D66’s rise “was bigger than expected but not a complete surprise.” In the final days before the vote, he noted, a large share of voters moved to D66 “as the best way out of the negative context of the previous coalition.” Voters, he said, wanted stability and saw it in Jetten’s moderate, hopeful tone.

Yet van der Kolk also cautioned that this was not a rejection of the far right’s agenda. The total vote share of anti-immigration, climate-denying, and eurosceptic parties like PVV, JA21, and Forum voor Democratie still accounts for roughly 30% of Parliament. “We should not be misled by the PVV’s loss,” he said. “There remains a stable core of radical right-wing voters in the Netherlands.”

Edward Koning, Associate Professor at the University of Guelph, agrees. “The appetite for anti-immigrant populism in the Netherlands has not waned,” he observed. What has shifted is the perception of who can deliver results. Wilders’ failure to govern effectively and for having dropped out of his own coalition cost him credibility, while Jetten’s D66 became the credible alternative not for ideology, but for competence.

A Divided but Hopeful Electorate

Polls cited by Ipsos I&O show that 15% of voters wanted Jetten as prime minister, ahead of Wilders and Timmermans, and 21% rated him among the most cooperative leaders. His appeal is rooted in his tone as much as in his programme. As former D66 adviser Roy Kramer told NOS, “He doesn’t have much bravado, but he dares a lot. He’s calm, consistent, and takes on difficult issues.”

Jetten’s campaign focused on tangible priorities: housing (36%), climate action (28%), and asylum policy (15%). These are the issues, and the percentages, D66 voters said, mattered most in their choice.

Jetten’s message was simple: the Netherlands can choose optimism over outrage. For many Dutch citizens weary of Wilders’ combative politics, that was a refreshing alternative perceived by voters.

Still, polarisation persists. Former PVV politician Joram van Klaveren warned that while D66’s victory brings “a positive message,” the far-right bloc’s endurance shows that “we have a long way to go” before Dutch politics becomes less divisive.

The Coalition formation: the hard task

Forming a stable coalition is Jetten’s first challenge. As NOS reported, the first step was the appointment of Wouter Koolmees, a D66 committed and former minister, as “scout” to explore coalition options. The likely configuration—D66, VVD, CDA, and GroenLinks–PvdA—is Jetten’s preference, but convincing VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz to work with the left-wing bloc remains a major task.

The VVD favours a narrower “over-right” coalition including the far-right JA21, arguing it would be “more stable,” especially on asylum policy. But as analysts note, that would force Jetten to rely on a party openly hostile to his pro-EU, pro-climate, and inclusive agenda, a credibility risk for both him and D66.

“Forming is eliminating,” political reporter Lars Geerts explained in NOS’s De Dag podcast. Each party Jetten excludes narrows his options, but including the wrong one could cost him political trust. The Dutch tradition of coalition-building, Geerts noted, demands patience and diplomacy, traits Jetten is known to possess.

Europe, Foreign Policy, and the World Beyond

Beyond domestic concerns, this election carries symbolic weight in Europe. For the first time in years, the Netherlands could reassert itself as a constructive, pro-European voice after a decade of inward-looking governments.

Retired ambassador Kees Rade told me that a centre-left or centrist coalition “would most likely restore Dutch efforts in development assistance and multilateralism” and be “friendlier to Brussels.” Similarly, Kayle Van ’t Klooster of the Clingendael Institute said that while foreign policy barely featured in the campaign, “there is broad alignment across left and right for stronger European security cooperation.”

Still, few expect dramatic shifts. “Relations with the US and China will not be much impacted,” former Ambassador Rade noted, adding that both countries were “fully absent” from the campaign debates. Dutch foreign policy, he concluded, “will continue as usual, just a bit greener and more European.”

A Moment of Opportunity

In his final TV debate, Rob Jetten framed his appeal around optimism and cooperation: “Leadership through example,” he said, “in climate action, equality, and digital innovation.” At 38, he embodies generational renewal, the idea that Dutch politics can move past pessimism without ignoring reality.

Yet, as Henk van der Kolk reminded, “There is no clear coalition, not a coherent alternative either.” The road ahead will be difficult, and the far-right will eagerly exploit any weakness.

Still, there’s a sense that something shifted in this election. It is not a revolution, but a recalibration. After years of populist noise, the Dutch electorate showed tiredness of Geert Wilders and may have rediscovered the quiet power of moderation.

“Voters want us to stop the political hassle and put our shoulders together,” Jetten said on election night. His words might sound ordinary, but in today’s Netherlands—fragmented, polarised, and exhausted by conflict—they carry new weight.

https://journal-neo.su/2025/11/14/as-geert-wilders-far-right-stumbles-can-rob-jettens-progressive-liberals-rebuild-the-dutch-centre/

 

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