The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres. The latest predictions show that:

• Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period 2025-2029. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.

• It is likely (86% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2025 and 2029. It is also likely (70% chance) that the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.

• It is likely (80% chance) that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024) and although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a chance (1%) of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years.

• Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C.

• The five-year average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region relative to the whole tropics

  indicates mixed or mainly neutral ENSO conditions in this period.

• The average Arctic temperature anomaly over the next five extended winters (November to

  March), relative to the recent climatological normal (the average of the years 1991-2020), is predicted to be 2.4°C, more than three and a half times as large as the anomaly in global mean temperature.

• Predictions of Arctic sea-ice for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

• Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 average, suggest anomalously wet conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and anomalously dry conditions for this season over the Amazon.

• Recent years, apart from 2023, in the South Asian region have been anomalously wet and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period. This may not be the case for all individual seasons in this period.

https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2025-05/WMO_GADCU_2025-2029_Final.pdf

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THOUGH GUS LEONISKY HAS NO CLUES, HE PREDICTS THAT 2026 WON'T BE IN THE RECORDED TOP FIVE WARMEST YEAR... MAKING THE DENIALISTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE GO NUTS WITH JOY. OR NOT...

BUT 2027 COULD BE THE WARMEST EVER, BEFORE 2029 TOPS THIS ONE UP... WHY?

THE PRESENT CLIMATIC TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOLLOW UPS AND DOWNS WITH A PUSH FOR UP.

AS THE ICE MELT SPEEDS UP, THE GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE DROPS... BUT THE OCEANS DO NOT COOL OFF... THE RESULTANT THUS SHOULD BE A SERIES OF COMPLEX HOT AND COLD PERIODS WHERE WINTERS GET COLDER BUT SUMMER CAN GET WARMER — AND A LOT OF FLOODS MAKING THE DIFFERENCE IN 2026 AND 2028 WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING ON THE COOL SIDE...

IN 2027 AND 2029, THE TENDENCIES WILL BE TOWARDS WARMER, LOTS OF FIRES — THE SMOKE OF WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE SUNLIGHT ON CO2, MAKING THE ALTERNATE YEARS COOLER. 2030 COOL. 2031 RECORD WARM. BUT 2032 RECORD WARM... NOT ENOUGH ICE MELT TO COOL THINGS DOWN... BY THEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL HAVE ADDED 1.9 DEGREE CELSIUS ON PRE-INDUSTRIAL TIMES AND WARMING UP AND DOWN TOWARDS HOTTER AND HOTTER. 2 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER BY 2033.... AND UP AND UP...

AT THIS TIME, CLIMATE PATTERNS WILL BE VERY UNSETTLED.... DUE TO WATER VAPOURS (CLOUDS) ABERRATIONS... AND CYCLONIC WINDS.

ALL THIS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EL NINO, OTHER CLIMATIC PATTERNS... AND OCEAN CURRENTS...

MEANWHILE THE TRUMP YEARS OF BURNING FOSSIL FUEL WOULD HAVE ADDED A BIT MORE TROUBLES....

HAVE FUN.

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.