Sergey Poletaev: What sort of losses can Ukraine tolerate before it’s forced to seek a peace deal with Russia?

This is the fourth month of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. The fighting, which began across the country’s northern, eastern and southern territory, is now almost entirely concentrated in the Donbass.

By Sergey Poletaev, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project.

We have to admit that Ukraine as an adversary turned out to be much stronger than it seemed for many on the eve of the offensive. That said, the reason given by the Russian side for starting the operation (the threat of a Ukrainian invasion of the Donbass) lost its relevance in the first days, if not hours: with massive strikes, the Ukrainian Army was neutralized and deprived of the ability to conduct offensive actions. 

Yes, within a couple of weeks it was possible to occupy the territories of several regions without serious fighting. However, there was no collapse of the Ukrainian state, troop control was maintained, mobilization was carried out, and supplies were secured. Seeing that Ukraine was holding on and could fight, the West finally decided to deliver extensive military supplies. 

Kiev has managed to build quite effective military propaganda. The party line is: “We were attacked, the entire West supports us, together we stood our ground and forced the enemy to retreat, together we will fight until victory.” So far, the ideological pumping is working, but over time, the weak points of the chosen narrative will begin to appear – facts will become apparent or, simply put, the excess of lies will be exposed. 

The Mariupol garrison, which had been surrounded for two-and-a-half months, is an illustrative example in this regard. Kiev insisted all along that it would be saved by military means and then transported to a neutral country.

However, it ended with a regular “evacuation” to Russian captivity, and the Ukrainian soldiers and fighters of the national battalions (in this case, the Azov neo-Nazis) saw clearly how they were being used as cannon fodder in the information war. Coincidence or not, but soon after the fall of Mariupol, the front in the Donbass also faltered, and under the threat of encirclement, Kiev’s soldiers now more often prefer to retreat and surrender cities without a fight.

Tectonic shifts have taken place in the Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporozhye regions: the creation of fully fledged civil-military administrations, the switch to ruble payments, the connection of Russian television and the internet, and the switch to SIM cards of Russian operators. Russian car number plates are being issued, symbols of Ukrainian statehood are being dismantled, and the procedure for issuing Russian passports has been adopted. All indications are that Russia is serious about the territory and intends to stay there for a long time – unlike the districts of Kharkov Region under our control, where nothing of the kind has been observed so far.

The battle for Donbass, which will determine the future of the military operation, is in full swing. It is following a slow, smoldering pattern that does not involve a rapid and spectacular defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A term of the First World War is increasingly recalled: War of attrition.

The conflict remains localized and peripheral for everyone except Ukraine. Russia is fighting with a peacetime army, essentially an expeditionary corps at maximum capacity, while the West, although supplying Kiev’s forces on an unprecedented scale, is not yet supplying the latest and most expensive weapons and is not intervening with its own troops.

In any military conflict, two issues are of fundamental importance. First, what are the politically acceptable losses – how much are you willing to sacrifice in order to achieve military goals? Second, what are the physically acceptable losses – how much energy and resources can you squander while still being able to fight and achieve your goals?

In the context of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, let’s try to answer those questions:

How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?

Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of thousands, and the country’s public opinion accepts these figures for now. Yes, the losses are high, but they are successfully holding back “the orcs,” as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev’s propaganda. However, these are the best, most experienced and most motivated fighters, and – at least in the coming months – it will be hard to replace them. In addition, the defensive tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine work well in the fortified positions that have been created in the Donbass in recent years. How untrained recruits will perform outside of such positions and against an army experienced in assault operations, only the future will show.

How many weapons is Ukraine prepared to lose?

On the face of it, given Kiev seems to have a ‘cheat code’ for an endless supply of ammunition and guns from the West, this issue is irrelevant. But the backbone of an army, especially a defending army, is not hipster drones or single, obsolete armored vehicles, but artillery: guns, howitzers, MLRS, and mortars. With the current scale of combat operations, thousands or tens of thousands, and millions of pieces of ammunition for them are needed. 

Yes, the USSR accumulated weapons for a couple of world wars, and the lion’s share of these weapons was kept in Ukraine and now serves Kiev’s needs. Yes, military aid is brought in from around the world, but the flow is less than the losses at the front. As the Soviet stockpile is exhausted, the West will face the task of fully supplying Ukraine with military supplies on a scale not seen in decades; it will have to supply a battle-hardened but severely depleted army with a significant percentage of untrained recruits, which means even more casualties and the need for even greater supplies.

How long will Ukraine survive economically?

They say Ukraine’s GDP will fall twofold this year, by about $100 billion. Keeping the economy afloat in the face of mobilization, loss of territory, stagnant businesses, and currency devaluation will require considerable investment from the West. Even a full confiscation of Russian foreign currency reserves would only partly compensate for this, as there is still the issue of military supplies, which requires up to another $1 billion daily.

What about Russia? As long as the Russian Army’s tactic of slow advance with reliance on artillery is paying off, we should not expect it to change. If the Russian Armed Forces completely stall, whether in defense of Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, or on the outskirts of Kharkov or Nikolaev, the issue of a broad military mobilization will have to be resolved, which is still politically unacceptable for the Kremlin.

For the adversary (Ukraine and the West), the question of what sort of losses are acceptable will ultimately come down to whether Ukrainian forces will be able to advance against the Russian Army and occupy the territory. If they can, the economic costs as well as the human losses will remain negligible, people will go to the front while weapons stream in from the West. If they cannot, if they continue to retreat, albeit slowly, it will raise the question of whether to make peace or raise the stakes. 

As before, everything will be decided on the battlefield. 

READ MORE:

https://www.rt.com/russia/556300-ukraine-losses-peace-deal-russia/

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Russian forces have advanced towards the centre of Sievierodonetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine, which has been shelled for weeks and where street fighting is now taking place, the region's governor announced on Monday.

“The Russians are advancing towards the middle of Sievierodonetsk. The fighting continues, the situation is very difficult, ”serhi Haidai, head of the Luhansk region, reported on Telegram. According to him, two people were injured on Monday when their car was targeted, and are now "safe". Three doctors are missing, according to the same source.

"The critical infrastructure of Sievierodonetsk is destroyed, 60% of the housing stock cannot be restored," Haidai continued. He added that the road linking Sievierodonetsk to the twin city of Lyssytchansk, then to that of Bakhmout, further south, was too "dangerous" to allow the evacuation of civilians and the transport of humanitarian aid.

On Sunday, Haidai had reported that a Russian assault on Sievierodonetsk was underway with street fighting. He also reported that the situation in Lysychansk had "greatly worsened". Sievierodonetsk, a city of 100,000 before the war, has been pounded with artillery for weeks by the Russian army and the pro-Russian separatists who fight alongside it. Dozens of civilians were killed there.

Sievierodonetsk and Lyssytchansk are located more than 80 kilometres east of Kramatorsk, which has become the administrative centre of Ukraine's Donbass since Moscow-backed separatists seized the eastern part of this large coalfield in 2014.

READ MORE:

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2022/05/30/guerre-en-ukraine-en-direct-l-armee-ukrainienne-affirme-reprendre-du-terrain-dans-la-region-de-kherson-au-sud-du-pays_6128144_3210.html

This is a shit SLANTED report despite the accuracy of the “situation”. The Nazi-USA backed illegal Ukrainian government has only itself to blame. All the Kiev government had to do was:

— NOT JOIN NATO EVER.

— THE DONBASS REGION BEING AUTONOMOUS AS PER THE MINSK AGREEMENTS.

— CRIMEA BEING RUSSIAN (AS IT WAS, IS AND SHOULD BE).

— AND TO THIS LIST, NOW ADD LIFTING OF ALL US SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA....

But is it too late?

Ukraine will capitulate eventually, despite the enormous help coming from the West. Meanwhile, more Ukrainians will get killed. By then, the Donbass region will be lost to Ukraine and become oblasts of Russia.

Sign the deal ASAP, Volodymyr…. Even if you look like a brave soldier with a flak jacket, Napoleon knew this: SIGN THE DEAL.

The US will not supply Ukraine with long-distance missile systems that are capable of striking deep into Russian territory, President Joe Biden explained on Monday. Asked by reporters about the prospect of such deliveries, Biden flatly rejected the possibility.

"We are not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia," the president said without elaborating.

Last week, multiple US media outlets reported that the White House was considering sending M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS rocket systems to Ukraine, which can have a range of up to 500km. The M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) are two versions of US-made rocket artillery systems that can fire the same types of rockets. The advanced weaponry would have allowed the Ukrainian forces to strike deep into Russian territory and potentially target major cities.

Biden’s announcement on Monday was welcomed by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who said it was “reasonable” to avoid supplying such systems to Kiev. Earlier, Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov expressed hope that “common sense will prevail, and Washington will not take such a provocative step,” which would only lead to further “escalation” of the conflict.

Moscow has repeatedly warned the West against “pumping” Ukraine with assorted weaponry, stating that it would only prolong the hostilities without ultimately changing the outcome, thereby inflicting more damage on Ukraine and its population. It has also declared weapons stockpiles from the West in the country to be “legitimate targets.”

Russia attacked the neighboring state in late February, following Ukraine’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements, first signed in 2014, and Moscow’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The German- and French-brokered protocols were designed to give the breakaway regions special status within the Ukrainian state.

READ MORE:

https://www.rt.com/news/556349-biden-ukraine-missiles-supply/

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Yeah I’m sure the Ukraine won’t use these systems to attack Russia, just like they didn’t use those attack helicopters to attack Russia.

Let’s just keep this thing going a couple extra weeks…

RT:

The US will provide Ukraine with “more advanced rocket systems,” President Joe Biden revealed in an article published in the New York Times on Tuesday. 

Washington agreed to send multiple rocket launchers after Kiev gave “assurances” that the long-range weapons will not be used to strike Russian territory, several media outlets reported on Tuesday, citing White House officials.

The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) can hit targets as far as 50 miles away. The planned shipments are reportedly part of a $700 million military aid package for Ukraine that is due to be announced on Wednesday. The deal is said to also include more Javelin shoulder-fired anti-tank missile systems, various radars, and ammunition.

Biden signed a bill last month that provides Kiev with $40 billion worth of aid. In his article, Biden wrote that he had decided to “provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.”

Biden earlier this week said he wasn’t going to do this, but that was apparently just yet another senior moment.

The weirdest thing about this is that “Joe Biden” actually penned an op-ed for the Times to announce this.

https://www.unz.com/aanglin/doubling-down-on-double-anal-biden-pens-nyt-op-ed-promising-mrls-and-eternal-support-for-felted-ukraine/

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You can trust the YOUKraiNIANS AS much as Joe Bidennnnnden.... on this.... Changing his mind far more than changing his underpants despite his diarrhoea...

MEANWHILE THE TRUE SPECS OF THESE ROCKETS ARE:

The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) is a light multiple rocket launcher developed in the late 1990s for the United States Army, mounted on a standard Army M1140 truck frame.

The HIMARS carries six rockets or one MGM-140 ATACMS missile on the U.S. Army's new Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) five-ton truck and can launch the entire Multiple Launch Rocket System Family of Munitions (MFOM). HIMARS ammunition is interchangeable with the MLRS M270A1; however, it is only able to carry one pod rather than the standard two for the M270 and A1 variants. 

The launcher is C-130 transportable.[10] The chassis was initially produced by BAE Systems Mobility & Protection Systems (formerly Armor Holdings Aerospace and Defense Group Tactical Vehicle Systems Division), the original equipment manufacturer of the FMTV. In 2010, production of the chassis was taken over by the Oshkosh Corporation. This ended in 2017;[11] both chassis and launcher system are now produced by Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control in Camden, Arkansas.[12]

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS

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Let's hope that Zelenskyyyy-y gets his arse wiped out before delivery....

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Russian forces destroyed two US-made rocket launchers in Donbass, the defense ministry said on Wednesday.

The US provided Kiev with eight High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition since the beginning of the Russian military offensive in Ukraine, according to a Pentagon fact sheet published on Tuesday.

“In the area of the settlement of Malotaranovka in the Donetsk People's Republic, high-precision air-launched missiles destroyed two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and two ammunition depots for them,” the Russian military said in a statement.

At the end of June, the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) said that an М142 HIMARS had been used by Ukrainian forces in Donbass, the first time that local authorities reported the US-supplied systems had been used in combat.

Prior to that, the chief of Ukraine’s General Staff, Valery Zaluzhny, posted a video, purporting to show pro-Kiev forces operating the long-range rocket system.

READ MORE:

https://www.rt.com/russia/558482-himars-destroyed-russia-donbass/

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"As long as the big cannons

By the USA promised, turn up —

And are not completely blown up

By the nasty Duke of Putington’s."

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