A briefing for Prime Minister Albanese for his discussion with President Xi     By John Menadue

 

You will receive briefings from many of your advisors, including from the Office of National Intelligence. My experience is that intelligence agencies have a lot of information but they often have poor judgement. The framing of issues by our intelligence agencies very often reflects the views and habits of the US and the Anglosphere.

I hope you will also find the following briefing useful.

 

Introduction

Yours is the first Australian Prime Ministerial visit after seven difficult years in relations between our two countries. Hostility and fear of China is now widespread. Previous governments and our media have maliciously and in ignorance, fanned this hostility and fear. It will be hard to repair the damage.

We know how important the economic and trading relations are. With over 30% of our two-way trade with China, there would be very major disruptions in Australia, particularly in employment, if that trade was severely damaged.

Richard Marles and others promoting fear of China highlight how it is important to protect our shipping routes. But we have a common interest with China in protecting those routes. Our exports are China’s imports. China does not want disruption and neither do we. But our actions in association with US naval fleets in the South China Sea may cause problems.

China does not have its navy patrolling up and down the Californian coast or the Florida Keys.

Our histories, cultures and systems of government are different, so we must learn about each other. If we don’t, we will make the same mistakes again and again. We need to be much more Asia literate. Unfortunately there has been a dramatic reduction in our learning about Asia in our schools, universities, business and the media. The learning retreat has become a rout. Urgent action is necessary.

We are a settler community that is trying to come to terms with our Asian geography. Historically, we looked to Britain for support and protection. We were fearful of Asia. When Britain failed us, we looked to the US. One result of that is that we have inherited a US universe that dominates so much of our politics, economy, culture, intellectual and media life. It is hard for us to break free and determine our own course in Asia and with China.

There is a tug of war between our strategic and political relations with the US and our economic relations with China – between our history and our geography.

Unfortunately, America is falling into a trap by thinking the 21st Century will be decided by military and not economic leadership.

Since neither America or China think the other will invade and occupy it (because each has a nuclear deterrent), the contest will be won by which country is most appealing to the emerging nations, whose combined population already far exceeds that of developed countries and whose total GDP will soon overtake the rich world too.

America thinks that what the third world most wants is American style democracy and armed protection from China. But the main problems in these countries is rampant crime and violence and lack of jobs. China addresses both by offering police training to restore civil order and infrastructure projects to ignite economic growth. Also, it does not make its own governance model a condition for aid.

Of concern is the messaging out of Washington after your recent visit that if you pursue rapprochement with China, Congressional support for AUKUS will end. Ben Packham in The Australian of 27 October reported:

The US congress has been warned that the AUKUS deal will punch a two decade-long hole in the country’s already-stretched nuclear submarine plans, threatening America’s military deterrence.

A Congressional Budget ­Office report, published as ­Anthony Albanese departed the US, warns the Virginia-class boats that Australia wants to buy will not be guaranteed to support the US in any conflict, noting Australia’s refusal to pledge to join the US in a war with China over Taiwan.

The CBO, created to help congress make effective policy, said the AUKUS plan had ­imposed “major uncertainty” over the US submarine plans.

It warns the US Navy’s latest shipbuilding blueprint, which doesn’t yet factor in the boats to be sold to Australia, would ­require a 31-40 per cent budget boost.

The report comes amid concerns over the Albanese government’s push to stabilise ties with Beijing, with President Joe Biden publicly warning the Prime Minister ahead of his trip to Beijing about trusting Xi Jinping’s word.

There are several particular matters that you or President Xi may want to discuss.

Economic Coercion

Many Australians and particularly our Mainstream Media (MSM) accuse China of economic coercion. We are both trying to put an end to that by tying up some loose ends very quickly such as on the trade restrictions on Australian wine and lobsters.

The trade problems started with the Morrison Government. Foolishly and to ingratiate ourselves with President Trump, we very publicly pointed the finger at China over the Covid outbreak. That matter could have been better handled diplomatically, and together with other countries.

We also launched many anti dumping actions against Chinese goods coming to Australia. On advice from the Five Eyes, we banned Huawei and even rejected Chinese investment in one of our milk companies. China took exception and imposed trade barriers that our media, with encouragement from the US and others, transformed into stories of Chinese economic coercion.

Fears of China and Asia are so easy to promote in a settler society like ours.

It is also worth recalling that the US took advantage of our lost markets in China.

But we hope we can now put trade issues behind us and each learn from our mistakes.

Is China a military threat to Australia?

There has been much alarmist talk about this in Australia, encouraged by Richard Marles and others. But China has neither the intent or capacity to attack us.

The Nine Newspapers in cooperation with a Defence and a military funded think tank, warned us in ‘Red Alert’ that we should prepare for war with China within three years. That nonsense was allowed to run without any government rebuttal.

The Government’s Defence Strategic Review was authored by a senior officer of the United States Studies Centre in Sydney. That would cause China to be dubious about our independence in defence issues.

There certainly has been a significant build up in China’s military spending, but it is still small compared with the US. It is understandable, with many US military bases surrounding it, that China is concerned about self defence.

As Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished Singapore former diplomat and academic and distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, noted…

“America’s behaviour during its period of emergence as a great power conforms to the historical norm. China’s behaviour so far, defies the norm. Of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (who represent the great powers), only one has not fought a war in 40 years; China. Indeed, China has not even fired a bullet across its borders since a naval skirmish with Vietnam in 1989.”

The US is perpetually at war. I have written about this many times. The US unfortunately believes that rising powers will be as warlike as the US has been and still is. As Chas Freeman, a senior ex US diplomat has put it, “the US sees China through the dark rear mirror of its own unbridled aggression.”

In Pearls and Irritations, Percy Allan has also written about Why China is not a threat: Sinophobia unites Americans. These articles would be useful background reading on your flight to Beijing.

 

AUKUS

President Xi may not raise this matter. He probably thinks that AUKUS is so absurd it will never happen. As Paul Keatinghas said, putting eight submarines against China is like throwing a handful of toothpicks at a mountain. The Chinese would also be well informed about the problems AUKUS faces: cost, delay, nuclear waste, US Congress and growing opposition in Australia. Even Alexander Downer now has doubts about AUKUS.

Force Posture Agreement (FPA)

President Xi is more likely to be concerned about the FPA that was first signed with the US in 2004, by the Abbott Government. The FPA is clearly directed at China.

The Force Posture Agreement:

• Facilitates the stationing in Darwin, for six months each year, of up to 2,500 US Marines; they are trained and equipped for immediate deployment and while in Australia, train for war in exercises with the Australian Defence Force. They are not under the control of the Australian government. They are under the control of the US Indo-Pacific Command.
• Facilitates unimpeded access to Australia’s airfields and airport facilities for US fighter planes and bombers including the stationing of up to six B-52 bombers at RAAF Base Tindal. B-52 bombers were used to devastate Vietnam in that war and some are capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
• Facilitates unimpeded access to Australia’s seaports for U.S. naval vessels including their nuclear submarines at HMAS Stirling in WA.
• Facilitates establishment of storage facilities for aircraft fuel, spare parts and munitions under US military control. This includes huge fuel storage facilities at East Arm, Darwin and logistics facilities for storage of equipment, munitions and spare parts at Bandiana in Victoria.
• The FPA opened the door for the imbedding of US military intelligence operatives within the Australian defence intelligence organisation, now called the Combined Intelligence Centre-Australia.
• Under the FPA, a US command centre has been established in Darwin to control US aircraft operations and another command centre in Darwin to control US marine operations.

Parts of Northern Australia are very obviously being taken over as a US military colony for possible attacks on China.

One matter which may affect this military colonisation of Northern Australia is the Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous People that Australia signed fourteen years ago.

As Henry Reynolds has pointed out, Article 30/2 of that Declaration states that:

“States shall undertake effective consultations with the indigenous people concerned, through appropriate procedures and in particular through their representative institutions, prior to using their lands or territories for MILITARY activities.”

Following the defeat of the Voice Referendum, Indigenous communities in Northern Australia may take an active interest in US military colonisation of their lands. They are also concerned about disposal of nuclear waste.

One particular matter President Xi might raise is US nuclear armed B-52 planes based at Tindal. Penny Wong has said many times that neither the US or Australia ‘will confirm or deny’ that these aircraft are nuclear armed. In anticipation of Chinese concern about this I checked what PM Fraser said in the Parliament on 11 March, 1981. He said:

‘The Australian Government has a firm policy that aircraft carrying nuclear weapons will not be allowed to fly over or stage through Australia without its prior knowledge and agreement. Nothing less than this would be consistent with the maintenance of our national sovereignty’.

Malcolm Fraser is a good guide on such matters.

Taiwan

The Australian position is quite clear. We support the One China policy like most countries around the world, including the US, although President Biden often walks backwards on the policy.

Despite continual American political and military provocations, we should urge China to be patient on Taiwan. There are strong ethnic, cultural, economic and personal links between the people of Taiwan and people on the mainland. We hope that these links will eventually help resolve this matter peacefully.

Unfortunately, Peter Dutton and others have been beating war drums over Taiwan and suggesting that it is inconceivable that we would not join the US in a war over Taiwan.

More concerning is a recent statement by Richard Marles to a Defence Dialogue in the ROK on 18 October last month that ‘the consequences of a US-China conflict over Taiwan are so grave that we cannot be passive bystanders’. Defence people can be very loose cannons at times, so it is important to assure President Xi that despite our strong ties with the US we will not be involved in any conflict over Taiwan.

There is good precedent for Australia sitting it out over Taiwan.

Alexander Downer, in August 2004, said in Beijing that ‘ANZUS did not necessarily commit Australia to siding with the US in a war over Taiwan.’

As Paul Keating said two years ago: ‘defending Taiwan is not in Australia’s interest.’

We should urge China to be patient over Taiwan and not be provoked by the US.

Media

Three years ago, there was a serious disruption in reciprocal media representation in our two countries. It is the first time since the 1970s that we now have no Australian media representation in China. China was concerned about ASIO raids on Chinese journalist’s homes in Australia.

It may be some consolation for the Chinese Government to know that ASIO also raids Australian journalists.

In response to the ASIO raids several Australian journalists were advised to leave China.

We must put those issues behind us and get journalists back into each other’s country. Hopefully President Xi would be responsive.

Such an arrangement would help improve the quality of Australian media portrayal of China. It is badly needed as so often our media coverage of China is inflammatory and prejudiced reposts of legacy media out of Washington, New York and London.

Recently the All China Journalists Association hosted a short term visit by Australian journalists to China. Hopefully that could be the beginning of re establishing permanent long term reciprocal media arrangements.

 

Human Rights

We are very pleased that China has released Cheng Lei. We hope that China will also release Yang Heng Jun.

It is pleasing to note that China is more responsive to our representations on behalf of Australian citizens than is the US over Julian Assange.

On terrorism, we know that China is concerned about the large number of ethnic and religious minorities and has taken firm action against terrorism in Xinjiang Province.

The US has been less successful in stamping out terrorism in the Middle East which has brought death and dislocation to millions of people.

President Xi may also raise with you the defeat of the Voice referendum and whether it reflects some racism against indigenous Australians, particularly in remote parts of Australia.

 

Briefing ends.

 

https://johnmenadue.com/a-briefing-for-prime-minister-albanese-for-his-discussion-with-president-xi/

 

 

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It is prohibited to supply, sell or transfer any of the following goods directly or indirectly to, for use in, or for the benefit of Russia:

• arms or related materiel
• aluminium ores (including bauxite), alumina and related products (as designated in the Autonomous Sanctions (Export Sanctioned Goods – Russia) Designation 2022)
• certain luxury goods (as also designated in the above Designation)
• items suited for use in the following categories of oil exploration or oil production projects in Russia (as specified in the Autonomous Sanctions (Russia, Crimea and Sevastopol) Specification 2015):
  
  1. oil exploration and production in waters deeper than 150 metres;
  2. oil exploration and production in the offshore area north of the Arctic Circle;
  3. projects that have the potential to produce oil from resources located in shale formations by way of hydraulic fracturing (other than exploration and production through shale formations to locate or extract oil from non‐shale reservoirs).

Arms or related matériel includes, but is not limited to, weapons, ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, and spare parts and accessories for any of those things. It also includes paramilitary equipment. While each case will be considered individually, goods on the Defence and Strategic Goods List are likely to be considered arms or related matériel. Depending on the context, end user and end use, other goods may also be considered arms or related matériel. Go to Factsheet: Arms and Related Matériel for information on what to consider when assessing whether a good is an arm or related matériel.

Restrictions on the import, purchase or transport of certain goods

It is prohibited to import, purchase or transport any of the following goods if they were exported from, or originated in, Russia:

• arms or related materiel
• any goods which originate in or have been exported from the specified Ukraine regions
• oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, coal and other energy products (as designated in the Autonomous Sanctions (Import Sanctioned Goods – Russia) Designation 2022).
• gold exported from Russia (as defined in the Autonomous Sanctions (Import Sanctioned Goods—Russia) Amendment (No.1) Designation 2022

Restrictions on certain commercial activities

It is prohibited to deal with financial instruments issued by, or provide loans or credit to:

• specified publicly‐owned or controlled Russian banks (as specified in the Autonomous Sanctions (Russia, Crimea and Sevastopol) Specification 2015)
• specified Russian companies predominantly engaged in activities relating to military equipment or services (as also specified in the above Specification)
• specified publicly‐owned or controlled Russian companies involved in the sale or transport of crude oil or petroleum products (as also specified in the above Specification)
• majority owned subsidiaries or entities acting as agents for any of the above.

Restrictions on the provision of certain services

To complement the restrictions outlined above on the export and import of certain goods and on certain commercial activities, the provision of certain services is also restricted. It is prohibited to provide:

• any service which assists with, or is provided in relation to, the supply, sale of transfer of goods listed under ‘restrictions on the export or supply of certain goods' above, except the items suited for use in certain categories of oil exploration or oil production projects
• financial assistance or a financial service which assists with, or is provided in relation to, the import, purchase or transport of goods listed under ‘restrictions on the import, purchase or transport of certain goods' above
• an investment service which assists with, or is provided in relation to, the activities listed under ‘restrictions on certain commercial activities' above
• a service to Russia, or to a person for use in Russia, which assists with, or is provided in relation to:
  • a military activity
  • the manufacture, maintenance or use of arms or related matériel
• certain services to Russia, or to a person or entity for use in Russia, that are necessary for certain types of oil exploration or production projects in Russia, including drilling or well‐testing services.

Restrictions on providing assets to, and dealing with the assets of, designated persons or entities

The Minister for Foreign Affairs may designate a person or entity for targeted financial sanctions if:

1. the Minister is satisfied that the person or entity is, or has been, engaging in an activity or performing a function that is of economic or strategic significance to Russia
2. the person is a current or former Minister or senior official of the Russian Government
3. the person is an immediate family member of a person mentioned in paragraph (a) or (b).

It is prohibited to directly or indirectly make an asset available to, or for the benefit of, a designated person or entity.

It is also prohibited to use or deal with an asset, or allow or facilitate another person to use or deal with an asset, that is owned or controlled by a designated person or entity (the assets are ‘frozen' and cannot be used or dealt with). The prohibition on ‘dealing' with assets includes using, selling or moving assets.

An 'asset' includes an asset or property of any kind, whether tangible or intangible, movable or immovable.

Go to the Consolidated List to search the names of designated persons and entities.

If you become aware that you are holding an asset of a designated person or entity, you are required to freeze (hold) that asset and notify the AFP as soon as possible. Go to What You Need to Do for more information.

Travel bans on declared persons

The Minister for Foreign Affairs may declare a person for a travel ban if:

1. the Minister is satisfied that the person or entity is responsible for, or complicit in, the threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine
2. the Minister is satisfied that the person or entity is, or has been, engaging in an activity or performing a function that is of economic or strategic significance to Russia
3. the person is a current or former Minister or senior official of the Russian Government
4. the person is an immediate family member of a person mentioned in paragraph (b) or (c).

Sanctions permits

The Minister for Foreign Affairs may grant a sanctions permit to allow an activity that would otherwise be prohibited under autonomous sanctions in relation to Russia provided the activity meets specific criteria.

The table below provides a general guide to relevant criteria. You should get your own legal advice if you think your proposed activity is affected by sanctions and may meet the criteria for a permit. Go to Sanctions Permits for information on permits, including how to apply.

 

https://www.dfat.gov.au/international-relations/security/sanctions/sanctions-regimes/russia-sanctions-regime#

 

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West ‘shocked’ by Russia’s sanctions resilience – deputy PM

The country has demonstrated its economic strength and an ability to pursue independent policy on the global stage, Andrey Belousov has said

 

Russia’s unexpected resilience in the face of the unprecedented Western sanctions pressure has caught the US and its allies off guard, the nation’s first deputy prime minister, Andrey Belousov, said on Sunday. Moscow has achieved true economic sovereignty and demonstrated its ability to pursue independent policy and defend national interests despite any external pressure, he added.

“The West was shocked that Russia stood fast in the face of sanctions,”he said at a major ‘Russia’ exhibition that opened in Moscow over the weekend. “We were foretold of a catastrophe comparable to the 1990s,” he said.

Back in 1990s, Russia, which was going through a period if rapid market reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union first suffered through a period of hyperinflation, which amounted to whopping 2,500% in 1992 and later had to go through a technical default on its obligations in 1998, which is still considered the worst economic crisis in the nation’s modern history.

When Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies slapped Russia with unprecedented economic sanctions, targeting financial systems as well as aviation and the space industry. Several Russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT while many foreign companies, ranging from luxury clothes brands to IKEA, announced they would cease their operations in the country.

The nation’s GDP shrank by 2.1% last year amid the severe restrictions. However, according to President Vladimir Putin, it has completely recovered from this downturn as of October this year. In 2023, the nation’s GDP was projected to expand by 2.8% despite the continued economic pressure, the Kremlin said this week.

Western financial institutions have also been noting Russia’s economic rebound. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia’s GDP to grow 2.2% in 2023, up from its April forecast of 0.7%, and July projection of 1.5%.

According to Belousov, Russia has entered a “period of strengthening sovereignty” in 2022. The deputy prime minister also said that economic sovereignty does not mean isolation. Instead, it means an ability to pursue a country’s own national agenda and follow its own goals in a “changing world.”

The official also named a well-established international partnership system contributing to a nation’s strong position in the global economy as one of the key factors of economic sovereignty. Other factors included a strong national education and science system capable of producing its own technologies, modern infrastructure, effective government institutions, low inflation and budget deficit as well as a stable access to energy, food and raw materials.

https://www.rt.com/russia/586645-west-shocked-russia-sanctions-resilience/

 

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