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Now is the time for talks that will bring us closer to peace and away from a deadly and destructive war with no end in sight.

There has been a complete collapse of diplomacy between the US and Russia, and a near-total collapse between the US and China. Europe, which has made itself far too dependent on the US for its own good, simply follows the Washington line. The absence of diplomacy creates a dynamic of escalation that can lead to nuclear war. The highest priority for global peace is to re-establish US diplomacy with Russia and China.

 

The urgency of Diplomacy   By Jeffrey D. Sachs

 

The state of affairs is encapsulated by President Joe Biden’s incessant personal insults of his Russian and Chinese counterparts. Instead of focusing on policy, Biden focuses on the personal vis-à-vis President Vladimir Putin. Recently, he referred to President Putin as “a crazy SOB.” In March 2022, he stated that “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Just after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last fall, Biden called him a “dictator.”

This crude personalisation of complex superpower relations is inimical to peace and problem solving. Moreover, the crudity of this rhetoric and absence of serious diplomacy has opened the floodgates of shocking rhetorical irresponsibility. The President of Latvia recently tweeted “Russia delenda est” (“Russia must be destroyed”), paraphrasing the ancient refrain of Cato the Elder in calling for the destruction of Carthage by Rome prior to the Third Punic War.

At one level, these utterly puerile statements all recall the admonition of President John F. Kennedy, who drew the most important lesson of the Cuban Missile Crisis as the need to avoid humiliating a nuclear-armed adversary: “Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy—or of a collective death-wish for the world.”

But there is an even deeper problem at hand. All of US foreign policy is currently based on asserting the motives of the counterparts rather than actually negotiating with them. The US refrain is that the other side can’t be trusted to negotiate, so that it’s not worth trying.

Negotiations today are denounced as pointless, untimely, and a show of weakness. We are repeatedly told that Britain’s Neville Chamberlain tried to negotiate with Hitler in 1938, but that Hitler tricked him, and that the very same would happen with negotiations today. To underscore the point, every US adversary is branded as a new Hitler — Saddam Hussein, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and others – so any negotiation would be in vain.

The problem is that this trivialisation of history and of today’s conflicts is leading us to the brink of nuclear war. The world is closer to nuclear Armageddon than ever before – 90 seconds to midnight according to the Doomsday Clock – because the nuclear superpowers aren’t negotiating. And the US has actually become the least diplomatic of all UN member states, comparing the states according to adherence to the UN Charter.

Diplomacy is vital because most conflicts are what game theorists call “strategic dilemmas.” A strategic dilemma is a situation in which peace (or, more generally, cooperation) is better for both adversaries but in which each side has the incentive to cheat on a peace agreement in order to take advantage of the foe. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, for example, peace was better for both the US and the Soviet Union than nuclear war, but each side feared that if it agreed to a peaceful outcome, the other side would cheat – for example through a nuclear first-strike.

The keys to peace in such cases are mechanisms for compliance. Or as President Ronald Reagan said of negotiating with the Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, repeating an old Russian maxim, “Trust but verify.”

There are many mechanisms for building trust. At a basic level, the two sides can remind each other that they are in a “repeated game,” meaning that strategic dilemmas are regularly arising between them. If one side cheats today, that kills the chance for cooperation in the future. But there are many additional mechanisms for enforcement: formal treaties, third-party guarantees, systematic monitoring, phased agreements, and the like.

JFK was confident that the agreement to end the Cuban Missile Crisis that he negotiated with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in October 1962 would stick – and it did. He was later confident that the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty that he negotiated with Khrushchev in July 1963 would also stick – and it did. As JFK noted about such agreements, they depend on negotiating an agreement that is in the mutual interest of both parties: “Agreements to this end are in the interests of the Soviet Union as well as ours — and even the most hostile nations can be relied upon to accept and keep those treaty obligations, and only those treaty obligations, which are in their own interest.”

Game theorists have studied strategic dilemmas for more than 70 years now, most famously the Prisoner’s Dilemma. They have repeatedly found that a key path to cooperation in a strategic dilemma is through dialogue, even non-binding dialogue. The human interaction dramatically raises the likelihood of mutually beneficial cooperation.

Was Chamberlain wrong to negotiate with Hitler in Munich in 1938? No. He was wrong on the specifics, reaching an ill-advised agreement that Hitler did not intend to honour and then naively proclaiming “peace for our time.” Yet even so, Chamberlain’s negotiation with Hitler ultimately contributed to Hitler’s defeat. By plainly exposing Hitler’s perfidy to the world, the failed Munich agreement paved the way for a resolute Winston Churchill to take power in Britain, with deep vindication and with deep wellsprings of public support in Britain and worldwide, and then ultimately for the UK-US-Soviet alliance to defeat Hitler.

The repeated analogy to 1938 is in any event utterly simplistic, and in some ways even backward. The war in Ukraine requires real negotiation among the parties – Russia, Ukraine, and the US – to address issues such as NATO enlargement and mutual security of all parties to the conflict. These issues pose true strategic dilemmas, meaning that all parties – the US, Russia, and Ukraine — can come out ahead by ending the war and reaching a mutually satisfactory outcome.

Moreover, it has been the US and its allies that have broken agreements and refused diplomacy. The US violated its solemn pledges to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and to Russian President Boris Yeltsin that NATO would not move one inch eastward. The US cheated by supporting the violent coup in Kiev that toppled Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych. The US, Germany, France, and the UK, duplicitously refused to back the Minsk II agreement. The US unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 and from the Intermediate Force Agreement in 2019. The US refused to negotiate when Putin proposed a draft Russia-US Treaty on Security Guarantees on December 15, 2021.

There has in fact been no direct diplomacy between Biden and Putin since the beginning of 2022. And when Russia and Ukraine negotiated directly in March 2022, the UK and US stepped in to block an agreement based on Ukrainian neutrality. Putin reiterated Russia’s openness to negotiations in his interview with Tucker Carlson last month and did so again more recently.

The war rages on, with hundreds of thousands dead and with hundreds of billions of dollars of destruction. We are coming closer to the nuclear abyss. It’s time to talk.

In the immortal words and wisdom of JFK in his Inaugural Address, “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.”

 

Republished from Common Dreams, March 20, 2024

 

https://johnmenadue.com/the-urgency-of-diplomacy/

 

 

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THE COLLAPSE OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BETWEE RUSSIA ANS THE USA STEMS FROM THE AMERICANS'S DESIRE TO DESTROY RUSSIA.... UNTIL THIS IS STOPPED, THE VENOM WILL KEEP COMING FROM THE WESTERN SNAKES.....

fake resolution....

 

Draft Resolution Hoax Backfires in US Security Council Debacle BY  

After six months of blocking ceasefire resolutions at the United Nations, the US delegation submitted its own draft resolution on Friday ostensibly aimed at stopping the hostilities so humanitarian aid can reach the starving people of Gaza. Unfortunately, the American team linked the proposed ceasefire to the release of hostages and to the repudiation of Hamas which merely restates the Israeli position on a final settlement. The draft resolution also failed to explicitly demand an immediate ceasefire, but inserted deliberately-ambiguous language intended to give Israel sufficient legal flexibility to continue its aggression. In short, the US draft resolution was a cynical hoax concocted by the backers of Israel’s bloody campaign in Gaza that blew up in the US delegations face heaping more shame on the administration and the American people.

The media’s coverage of the ceasefire fiasco has been predictably biased and deceptive. The US delegation did not “call” for an “immediate ceasefire” as has been widely reported in the West. In fact, that was the issue that prompted the Russian and Chinese vetoes. What the draft resolution said was that “an immediate and sustained ceasefire” was “imperative.” There is a world of difference between a resolution that invokes the authority of the UN to ‘demand’ a ceasefire, and one that merely says a ceasefire is necessary. And, it is a difference that senior-level diplomats fully grasp, because in diplomacy, words matter. The words that the US delegation chose, were intentionally chosen to subvert the process, link the ceasefire to a release of the hostages, and to give Israel a green light to continue its military operations until a diplomatic agreement could be reached. The Russian ambassador summed it up like this:

If this resolution were adopted, it would definitively close the debate on the need for a ceasefire in Gaza, give Israel a free hand and condemn Gaza and its entire population to extermination or expulsion.

He’s right, this maliciously-worded resolution was designed to legitimize Israel’s rampage and provide legal cover for future aggression. Here is the excerpt from the US draft resolution that has drawn the most attention and criticism:

(The Security Council) Determines the imperative of an immediate and sustained ceasefire to protect civilians on all sides, allow for the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance, and alleviate humanitarian suffering, and towards that end unequivocally supports ongoing international diplomatic efforts to secure such a ceasefire in connection with the release of all remaining hostages.

And here’s a brief explanation from political analyst Trita Parsi:

The clause does not demand a ceasefire but determines that it is imperative. Its support is not directly for the ceasefire but for the negotiation process the U.S. has been co-leading and whose parameters the U.S. has sought to determine in favor of Israel. The text points out that this effort to secure a ceasefire is “in connection with the release of all remaining hostages. Why the Ceasefire Proposal Failed at the UNSC, Responsible Statecraft

In other words, the draft resolution is not aimed at bringing the hostilities to an end at all but, rather, to transforming the Security Council into another battlefield on which Israel’s bloody war can be waged. So, to dismiss this meticulously-engineered hoax as merely another example of US trickery, vastly understates the real objective of the operation which is to provide legal cover for the killing of civilians. Andre Damon at the World Socialist Web Site summed it up like this:

The cynicism of Biden’s call for a “ceasefire” while continuing to fund and arm the government massacring over a hundred Palestinians every day and starving the entire Gazan population is beyond description. The Biden administration hopes that by proclaiming its support for a “ceasefire” loudly enough, it will make the world’s population forget that it fully supports and enables the US-Israeli “final solution” of the Palestinian question.  The Fraud of Biden’s call for a “ceasefire” in Gaza, Andre Damon, World Socialist Web Site

The point we’ve been trying to make becomes clearer when we consider the comments of US ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield who said the following just prior to the voting:

Many of us here share the same goals. First, we want to see an immediate and sustained ceasefire as part of a deal that leads to the release of all hostages which are being held by Hamas and other groups and that will allow much more life-saving humanitarian aid to get into Gaza … By adopting the resolution before us, we can put pressure on Hamas to accept the deal on the table... I urge all council members to vote “yes”; to vote for a resolution that at long last condemns Hamas for its horrific terrorist attacks and sexual violence that makes clear that all civilians ….should be able to live without fear of violence. United Nations News (see video)

Thomas-Greenfield is mistaken; the purpose of the ceasefire is not to resolve the hostage crisis or to “condemn Hamas” or “to put pressure on Hamas to accept the deal on the table.” Those are Israel’s objectives not the Security Council’s. The purpose of the ceasefire is to stop the killing of innocent civilians and to make sure they get the food and medicine they need to survive. Full stop. As we said earlier, the US ambassador is merely parroting the demands of the Israeli government and then characterizing those demands as a ceasefire. Naturally, the Russians saw through this ruse and voted accordingly. Nevertheless, the ploy has succeeded in providing the Biden team with a welcome public relations triumph by making them look like peacemakers. (which is entirely undeserved.)

Without a doubt, the most powerful analysis of Washington’s failed draft resolution was by Russian ambassador Vassily Nebenzia who—once again—revealed himself to be principled statesman with a keen grasp of the issues. Here’s a lengthy excerpt of his comments that (predictably) appear no where in the western media and can only be found on the Kremlin website:

Mr.President,

For six months now, the UN Security Council has been unable to adopt a resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. Time and again, the United States thwarted any attempt to do so by using a veto in cold blood as many as four times.

During that time, we have heard many different excuses from our American colleagues. For example, that it is premature to seek a ceasefire because it is necessary to give space “for Israel’s counter-terrorism efforts”; that the Council should not interfere with Washington’s “effective diplomacy on the ground”; that we should wait until Ramadan, when, they say, an agreement on a cessation of violence will definitely be made.

Now, six months later, when Gaza has been practically leveled to the ground, the US representative says without batting an eye that Washington has finally started to realize the need for a ceasefire. This leisurely thinking process by Washington has cost the lives of 32,000 Palestinian civilians, two-thirds of them women and children.

And even now we see a typical hypocritical show, when in the cloak of a “ceasefire” the United States is trying to sell to the members of the Security Council and the entire international community something else – a vague phrase about “defining the imperative of a ceasefire”. Such philosophy about ‘moral imperatives’ might seem normal in the works of Immanuel Kant, but it’s not going to save the lives of Palestinians. And that is not at all what the mandate of the UN Security Council suggests, which has a unique toolkit to demand a ceasefire and, if necessary, enforce it.

In an official interview to Al Hadath in Jeddah on 20 March, Secretary of State Blinken said, “Well, in fact, we actually have a resolution that we put forward right now that’s before the UNSC that does call for an immediate ceasefire tied to the release of hostages and we hope very much that countries will support that”. However, the US-proposed draft resolution does not make such call. It appears that either the US Permanent Representative to the United Nations or the US Secretary of State is deliberately misleading the international community.

Colleagues,

From the very beginning, it was obvious that the “negotiations” on the draft resolution held by our American colleagues were only meant to (buy) time. All our comments and “red lines” were ignored, as well as the proposals of a number of other delegations….

The US draft is a thoroughly politicized document, which only aims at pulling on voters’ heartstrings before the US elections by throwing them a “bone” in the form of at least some mention of a “ceasefire” in Gaza. The draft also seeks to consolidate US policy in the region through “terrorist labels” and to ensure impunity for Israel, whose criminal actions the draft gives no assessment to.

Let me also stress that the American draft contains a de facto green light for Israel to conduct a military operation in Rafah. At least, the sponsors have tried to make sure that nothing in their draft would prevent West Jerusalem from completing the deadly cleanup of southern Gaza.

That is actually what Washington wants. We already said that we will no longer pass meaningless resolutions that do not demand a ceasefire and lead us nowhere.

This draft must not pass with the majority of UNSC votes in order to send a message that Washington’s not even palliative but devious concepts are unacceptable. It will be extremely strange if those members of the Council (and they are the majority), who realize this and have been saying to us that the US draft is a flawed one, will now raise their hand in favor. If you do so, you will smear yourselves in disgrace.

Think what this will make you look in the eyes of the people of the Middle East and your own countries, if you support this hypocritical endeavor designed to disorient the international community and, in fact, undermine the authority of the Council by rendering it unable to influence the situation on the ground and making it “stay out of White House’s way”. Are you ready to play a part in this shameful show?

Russia will not do this. As a permanent member of the Security Council and one of the founders of the United Nations, we recognize the global historical responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security and cannot allow the Council to become a tool of Washington’s destructive policy in the Middle East. If this resolution were adopted, it would definitively close the debate on the need for a ceasefire in Gaza, give Israel a free hand and condemn Gaza and its entire population to extermination or expulsion.

In our work, we are not guided by what pleases Washington or its satellites who are ready to cast a vote at the US behest, but by what is necessary for the Palestinians and what promotes peace.

We urge the members of the UN Security Council to prevent this and vote against the American draft resolution. Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at the UNSC vote on US-proposed draft resolution on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, Russian Federation

Perfectly stated.

Bravo, Vassily.

 

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/draft-resolution-hoax-backfires-in-us-security-council-debacle/

 

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ISIS passports....

Even though the Kiev regime publically rejects accusations of being “hospitable” to international terrorism, even Ukrainian journalists admit that the country’s authorities “strangely” turn a blind eye to the issue.

High-ranking ISIS* member Caesar Tokhosashvili, also known as al-Bara al-Shishani, "quietly" lived with his wife and three children in the Ukrainian city of Belaya Tserkov for more than a year before being tracked and detained by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2019, reports have revealed.

The news undermines Ukraine's official position of opposing terrorism and indicates that it remains a safe haven for such operatives.

The CIA’s operation to nab Tokhosashvili - who is of Georgian origin - was conducted in collaboration with Georgia’s Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Even Western media wondered at the time "why they chose not to arrest him earlier."

What else is known about this notorious ISIS terrorist?

 

In August 2017, Tokhosashvili and his family were believed to have been killed in an airstrike in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor. However, it later turned out that his death was staged to divert attention from him relocating to Ukraine.

 

It’s worth noting that Tokhosashvili came to Belaya Tserkov with a genuine passport, so the SBU was aware of his affiliation with the ISIS.

 

The SBU admitted that when in Ukraine, Tokhosashvili continued to recruit radicals into the ranks of the ISIS’ Security Service.

 

Importantly, the SBU carefully concealed the fact that the CIA had detained al-Shishani to prevent the spread of information about the SBU's role in providing ISIS terrorists with safe havens on Ukrainian territory.

 

Tokhosashvili is currently serving his sentence in Georgia on charges of terrorism.

His arrest five years ago grabbed global headlines at the time, with The Independent quoting Philip Ingram, a former British intelligence officer, as admitting that “the lax” Kiev regime had created "an obvious vulnerability to international terrorism," something that he said "Kiev does not seem entirely interested in addressing."

He was echoed by Vera Mironova, a jihad expert and visiting fellow at Harvard University, who told the Independent that "hundreds" of former ISIS militants had "decamped to Ukraine."

"Once these terrorists get to Ukraine, they rarely encounter problems with authorities," according to Mironova.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240325/how-did-notorious-isis-terrorist-manage-to-live-quietly-in-ukraine-for-months-1117540485.html

 

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