Trump’s Reality Check: The Ukraine conflict won’t be settled like a business deal
How will the situation develop if the US president’s efforts to end the war fail?

 

by Sergey Poletaev

 

‘Deal’ – it’s the key word in Donald Trump’s vocabulary and he’s built his career on striking them, but as he embarks on his second presidential term, he is about to face a challenge that will put his famed negotiation skills to the test. The Ukraine conflict, unlike trade deals or business arrangements, is deeply entrenched in geopolitical, military, and ideological complexities.

While Trump may initially push for a swift resolution — perhaps attempting to broker a ceasefire similar to his approach in the Middle East — he will soon realize that Ukraine is a far bigger challenge. The contradictions surrounding the conflict are not just regional but global, and a quick fix is unlikely. If Trump’s efforts fail, how will the situation evolve? 

US-Western Europe: Conflict or Quiet Sabotage?

Trump’s worldview is centered around the idea that the US is losing its global dominance. Since he cannot prevent this decline, his strategy appears to be one of disruption — seizing the initiative and reshaping alliances. He has long considered NATO an outdated burden, and his demand for members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP is, for many European countries, entirely unrealistic. Currently, only four NATO members — Poland, the US, Greece, and the UK — spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense.

Should Trump manage to overcome internal opposition and reshape US foreign policy, NATO may become his next target. The transatlantic alliance underpins many global institutions, and dismantling NATO — or significantly weakening it — would be a logical step in dismantling globalization itself. Supporting opposition parties in Europe, particularly nationalist and right-wing movements that align with his worldview, is one way he could advance this agenda.

In response, Western European elites have two options: openly confront Trump, which could lead to a transatlantic crisis, or verbally agree to his demands while quietly sabotaging them. The latter scenario is more likely. While they may nod along with Trump’s calls for increased defense spending and a tougher stance on China, in practice, European governments are unlikely to follow through. Under Trump’s leadership, NATO could lose both its political influence and its aura of invincibility.

Trump’s Ukraine Plan: Reality Check Incoming

Trump’s team is eager to pressure Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky into accepting a ceasefire. However, his vision for peace is simplistic and detached from reality. The war in Ukraine is not just a local conflict — it is a battleground for larger global struggles.

The first step for Trump will be to push Zelensky toward a truce, though it remains unclear whether the Ukrainian leader would agree. More likely, Trump will pressure Kiev into lowering the military conscription age to ensure a continued supply of soldiers — just as was done last year in exchange for Western military aid.

Zelensky, however, has his own concerns. He is desperately seeking security guarantees from the West, particularly from Trump. Without such assurances, he knows that if a ceasefire is reached, he will be left alone to face Russia. So far, there is no indication that Trump is willing to provide these guarantees. If he distances the US from Ukraine, Zelensky will be in an extremely vulnerable position.

Ukraine: Western Europe’s Unwanted Burden 

If Trump gives up on Ukraine, Western Europe may be forced to take responsibility for the war effort. However, the European Union lacks both the military stockpiles and the industrial capacity to sustain the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Financially, the EU could seize frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, but it is unclear how long that strategy could last.

Trump’s ideal scenario is simple: Western Europe buys weapons from the US and sends them to Ukraine. Whether this plan will work remains to be seen. The longer the conflict drags on, the more toxic the issue becomes within European politics, with public opposition growing. If Trump and EU bureaucrats clash, Ukraine may find itself abandoned.

Russia and the rest of Europe: No Grounds for Negotiation 

Unlike with the US, Russia sees no potential for negotiation with the current Western European leadership. The EU has shown no willingness to engage in meaningful diplomacy, preferring to churn out endless sanctions. Moscow’s only real option is to build relationships with non-establishment political forces in Europe — leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán or Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who prioritize national interests over Brussels’ agenda. If the EU continues its current trajectory, more such leaders will emerge.

Russia and the US: The Only Negotiation That Matters

The most important diplomatic developments will take place between Moscow and Washington. Trump’s immediate goal will be to resolve the Ukraine conflict quickly, casting himself as the president who ended an unwinnable war. He can still blame Biden for the US failure in Ukraine, but the longer the conflict continues, the more responsibility he will bear.

For Russia, the time for serious negotiations has not yet arrived. Putin’s primary goal is a decisive military victory that dismantles Ukraine’s ability to resist. With Ukraine preparing for a last-ditch spring-summer offensive, the fighting will continue for at least a few more months. During that time, the war will become Trump’s problem, not Biden’s.

At that point, Washington will face a crucial decision: escalate further, potentially triggering a direct confrontation with Russia, or accept defeat. Trump, who is more focused on a potential conflict with China, seems unwilling to risk war with Moscow. 

If this writer were preparing for negotiations with Trump, the message would be clear:

“Donald, your hand is weak. Ukraine will lose, and you know it. In six months, the failure will be on your shoulders, and you’ll have to decide whether to start a nuclear war — something you don’t want. You should cut your losses while you still can. No, we won’t trade Ukraine for China or anything else. We’re prepared to wait until you have nothing left to bargain with.”

Ukraine, NATO, and the Bigger Picture

The only real path to peace in Ukraine is its capitulation and the dismantling of anti-Russian nationalism. This requires a decisive military defeat, something the Russian army has been working toward for three years. If Ukraine’s military collapses, a coup in Kiev could become a real possibility.

Meanwhile, the NATO alliance faces a reckoning. Eastern European nations have long assumed that even informal NATO ties guarantee absolute protection from Russia. Ukraine’s fate will shatter this illusion. A Ukrainian defeat would mark the end of NATO expansion and shake Western influence in the region. Potential NATO candidates will see Ukraine as a cautionary tale.

Looking Ahead

If Trump’s efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict fail, he will have three options: escalate, withdraw, or shift the burden to Europe. None of these choices will resolve the underlying issues, but they will shape the future of NATO, the EU, and the broader international order. Meanwhile, Russia will remain patient, waiting for the moment when the West is forced to acknowledge the new geopolitical reality.

As for what happens next — whether the conflict expands, shifts to new regions like the Baltics, or fades into a prolonged stalemate — only time will tell. One thing is certain: Trump’s path to a ‘deal’ on Ukraine will be far more complicated than he initially thought.

 

https://www.rt.com/news/612840-trumps-reality-check-ukraine-conflict/

 

MAKE A DEAL PRONTO BEFORE THE SHIT HITS THE FAN:

NO NATO IN "UKRAINE" (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT)

THE DONBASS REPUBLICS ARE NOW BACK IN THE RUSSIAN FOLD — AS THEY USED TO BE PRIOR 1922. THE RUSSIANS WON'T ABANDON THESE AGAIN.

THESE WILL ALSO INCLUDE ODESSA, KHERSON AND KHARKIV.....

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN — AS IT USED TO BE PRIOR 1954

TRANSNISTRIA WILL BE PART OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION.

A MEMORANDUM OF NON-AGGRESSION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE USA.

 

EASY.

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

 

 

Macron’s Ukraine summit a gathering of ‘warmongers’ – EU state’s FM
The countries answering the French president’s call want the conflict to continue, Hungary’s Peter Szijjarto has claimed

The European leaders that answered French President Emmanuel Macon’s call for an ‘emergency summit’ to discuss how to respond to being sidelined by US President Donald Trump are “warmongers,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has warned.

Moscow and Washington have announced the beginning of bilateral talks on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia ahead of a possible summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump in Riyadh. Macron called EU leaders for an emergency summit on the Ukraine conflict in Paris on Monday after Washington made it clear that the bloc would not be at the table when the US and Russia discuss peace.

Speaking at a press conference in Kazakhstan on Monday Szijjarto said “We trust that the American-Russian negotiations will be successful, and we hope that this will lead to peace in Ukraine as soon as possible… However, we must also see that in Europe, those who do not want peace are organizing,” he added.

“Those who have been constantly adding fuel to the fire for the past three years are gathering in Paris today,” Szijjarto said, branding the participants “war-mongering countries that have followed a misguided strategy.”

Since Trump’s reelection, his administration has signaled a shift in US foreign policy, focusing on minimizing American involvement in any potential armistice achieved in Ukraine. Washington is also aiming to shift the financial and logistical burden of supporting Kiev to its European allies, while demanding that the continent's NATO members contribute more to collective defense.

The US has circulated a document to gauge the willingness of its European allies to deploy peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, among other points, according to Reuters.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stressed that he is ready to send British soldiers to provide security guarantees for Kiev, in the event of a ceasefire.

Similarly, Macron has repeatedly brought up the possibility of putting Western boots on the ground, both as peacekeepers and combatants. Last year, the French leader suggested that sending troops was a possibility that could “legitimately” arise if Russian forces broke through the Ukrainian front line, and Kiev asked for help.

https://www.rt.com/news/612879-macron-ukraine-summit-warmongers/

 

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