Ankara officially denies its involvement in the escalation of military tensions in Syria. In reality, the Turkish trace is openly visible in the conquest of the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib.

Turkey Implements the Neo-Ottoman Doctrine in Syria

by Alexandr Svaranc

Signs of the "Turkish Trace" in the Syrian Escalation

Right after the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Tel Aviv and Beirut mediated by Washington and Paris, four years after the signing in March 2020 of a similar document between Russia, which supports the legitimate authorities of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR), and Turkey regarding the stabilization of the situation in Syria, radical pro-Turkish terrorist groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTC, an organization banned in Russia) and the Syrian National Army (SNA, an organization banned in Russia) suddenly launched a carefully prepared military operation against the Damascus government forces and the Kurdish population in the northwest of the country. In a matter of days, the terrorists conquered the strategically important provinces of Aleppo and Idlib.

Ankara officially denies any involvement in this escalation. However, the Turkish Foreign Ministry tried to shift the blame to the United States and Israel, which are interested in aggravating the geopolitical situation in the region, internationalizing the conflict, and do not rule out aggression against Iran.

Overall, this view of the Turkish Foreign Ministry is worth considering, as the United States and Israel do not hide their negative attitude towards Iran. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon by his plans to focus on a potential conflict with Iran. In addition, Netanyahu, by making public the content of the agreement with Beirut, threatened Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad not to commit reckless actions that could provoke a direct conflict with Israel.

Tel Aviv, in southern Lebanon, has dealt a significant blow to the main pro-Iranian proxy force, the Shiite organization Hezbollah, and to the potential of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Syria remains a key regional ally of Iran, through which military aid to Hezbollah flows. Therefore, the localization of Syria is part of the plans of the Israeli army command. In addition, Israel aims to legitimize its occupation of the Golan Heights in order to ensure the strategic security of the Jewish state. Netanyahu, in his aggressive plans, is counting on the support of the newly elected 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, known for his radical pro-Israeli policies.

However, how can Israel and the United States legitimize the occupation of the Golan Heights if not through the partition of the SAR through military actions? At the same time, neighboring Turkey also retains certain territorial ambitions towards Syria, having announced in 2009 the doctrine of neo-Ottomanism applied to the countries and peoples previously included in the Ottoman Empire.

Ankara defines the threat of Kurdish separatism as an official pretext for its anti-Syrian policy. Turkey believes that the autonomy of Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava) in the north-west of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR) is supported by the United States and Israel, like Iraqi Kurdistan. However, if Ankara, for reasons of economic interest, maintains constructive cooperation with the pro-Western regime of the Barzani clan in Erbil, in Tell Rifaat, the Turks adopt a diametrically opposite approach.

In particular, Erdogan is implementing a policy of establishing Turkish responsibility over a 30-kilometer security zone in northwestern Syria, relying on an ethnically Turkmen and religiously Sunni population. Consequently, Ankara is using radical combat structures opposed to the Assad regime, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), for this purpose.

Indirect signs of Turkish involvement in the recent events of military escalation in Syria include: Ankara's political-military support for the HTS and the SNA (organizations banned in Russia); the supply of Turkish drones, the sharing of operational information, the use of a corps of military advisers; the introduction of Turkish liras in commercial transactions in the occupied territories of Aleppo and Idlib provinces; the display of Turkish and Ottoman symbols (flags, portraits of Ataturk and Erdogan, the totem of the "Grey Wolves") in the occupied localities. It is noteworthy that Recep Erdogan's daughter, Esra Erdogan, published a message on social networks congratulating the "brotherly revolutionaries" on their victory in Aleppo and for raising the flag of the Ottoman Empire.

After the start of the Israeli Defense Forces' military operation in southern Lebanon, Erdogan did not rule out that Israel could eventually carry out a military aggression against Turkey. However, how could Israel, without a direct border with Turkey, occupy Anatolia? The Turks did not provide any explanations. However, on the one hand, if the United States really supports a military conflict of Israel against Syria and legitimizes the occupation of the Golan Heights (and where the real border of hostilities will end in the south of the SAR remains unclear), and on the other hand, if Turkey, through its proxy forces, manages to consolidate its presence in the north-west of the SAR under the pretext of fighting the Kurdish separatist threat, then the territorial dismantling of present-day Syria will become a reality, as will the geographical contact between Israel and Turkey. This scenario forces Turkey to count on the goodwill of the United States and Israel.

The United States and Israel have an interest in keeping Iran and Russia out of Syria, a key country in the Eastern Mediterranean, which would allow them to reshape the Middle East according to their dictates. In this American regional strategy, Turkey is only one piece of the overall plan.

Russia and Iran have officially condemned the aggression of the mentioned terrorist organizations against Syria, calling it an attack on Syrian sovereignty and a factor of escalation in the region, contradicting the logic of the Astana negotiation process involving Turkey. However, Tehran and Moscow are not limited to formal statements and are stepping up their diplomatic and military assistance to the Syrian government to restore sovereignty and peace.

In this context, Iran has transferred Shiite groups from Iraq to Syria to support the Assad regime. New specialists and units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including General Javad Ghaffari, head of the IRGC intelligence department, have been sent to Damascus; IRGC special forces units are also being transferred to the Russian military base in Hmeimim. Russian aviation provides air support to Syrian government troops, precisely targeting the bases of pro-Turkish fighters.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been visiting Middle Eastern countries, including Turkey. He reaffirmed Tehran's firm support for the Syrian government led by Bashar Assad and expressed readiness to help suppress the aggression of the radical opposition. In Ankara, according to Anadolu Agency, his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan stressed that Turkey does not want further escalation of the civil war in Syria. However, Fidan said it was wrong to interpret the recent events in Syria as a form of "external interference."

Translating Fidan's diplomatic language into simple terms, this amounts to saying that Turkey has nothing to do with it and that the terrorists are acting autonomously. However, the reality differs somewhat from this statement, as the same Turkish minister acknowledged the day before that the terrorists (in this case Kurdish) could not resist "more than three days" without external (American-Israeli) support. This observation is correct, but the pro-Turkish proxy forces cannot resist against the combined forces of the Syrian government army, the Russian air force and Iranian special forces without external (read: Turkish) support either.

Turkey seems to understand that Iran and Russia will not give up their firm position of support for Syria. If Ankara blames the United States and Israel for the Syrian escalation (specifically J. Biden and B. Netanyahu, since Erdogan seems to hope to restore alliance relations with the Trump administration), what then to do with Russia and Iran? Ankara could find itself isolated, which would lead to new problems in defense, security, as well as financial and economic terms.

Meanwhile, Fidan is proposing to Damascus to reconcile with a "legitimate opposition" (Turkey apparently means ethnically close Turkmens by this term, but it is up to the Syrians, not the Turks, to determine who is legitimate in the opposition).

Aware of the potential consequences of the aggression committed, Ankara has decided to publicly display its support for stopping the military escalation and continuing the negotiation process. All the more so since B. Assad has transmitted, via Iraq, signals to R. Erdogan indicating his willingness to begin talks. But under what conditions could these talks take place, and will Ankara come out of them with "assets"?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in his telephone conversations with his counterparts in the Astana format, reaffirmed Moscow's position on the events in Syria and called on its partners to work together to contain tensions. The Russian and Iranian presidents (V. Putin and M. Pezeshkian) held telephone discussions on the situation in Syria, called the aggression of terrorist groups a massive provocation, supported the right of Damascus to restore the territorial integrity of the SAR, and stressed the importance of coordinating efforts within the framework of the Astana format involving Turkey. In other words, in response to Turkish or pro-Turkish provocations in the SAR, Russia is currently maintaining a measured tone and showing loyalty to Turkey, hoping for the political foresight of its Turkish colleagues.

https://journal-neo.su/2024/12/06/turkey-implements-the-neo-ottoman-doctrine-in-syria/

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