New polling reveals a clear and sustained decline in public approval of Trump and his policies that is already reshaping US electoral prospects, with significant implications for Congress and beyond.

There has been a significant and measurable decline in Americans’ assessment of President Trump.

Bob McMullan

I am not referring to his mental decline. Many have commented on his rambling speeches and press conferences and his apparent pattern of falling asleep during meetings. But I am not equipped to assess the reality of allegations of mental decline.

I am not even referring to apparent signs of physical decline. The mystery MRI has not been explained. Swollen ankles, bruised hands and other signs may be significant, but there is not sufficient evidence to draw a conclusion from this distance.

Rather, I am referring to the incontrovertible evidence of decline in the level of voter support for Donald Trump so early in his second term.

The early election results certainly point to a serious problem for Republicans. In the recent round of elections, it was not just the resounding victories for Democrat candidates in the big contests for Governor of Virginia and New Jersey and the Mayor of New York city but also a staggering array of victories in election contests for school boards and a broad range of other less important positions across the country.

However, the more compelling and measurable evidence about future prospects can be found in the analysis of voter approval ratings overall and in key policy areas.

The absolute polling numbers are bad for Trump.

The trend should be even more alarming to his team.

Since July Trump’s overall approval rating as measured by the Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls has been in negative territory. It currently stands at -13.1 per cent.

The alarming trend for him is a story of continuing decline in approval from -3.3 per cent at 7 July to -6 per cent at 16 August, -6.1 per cent on 12 September and -13.1 per cent at 23 November.

The decline can also be seen in some of the most politically significant policy areas. It is not uniform, as you would not expect it to be, but there are noticeable negative trends in some of the most significant and politically sensitive policy areas.

The most outstanding numbers can be found in the assessments of Trump’s performance in handling inflation. This is significant because inflation is widely regarded as among the most potent election deciding issues in most western countries. including in Trump’s 2024 victory.

In July, voters had a negative perception of Trump’s handling of inflation by more than 19 per cent. This was a really bad assessment, but it has continued to get worse. By November the measure was negative more than 25 per cent.

After regularly attempting to turn the numbers around by asserting that prices were actually falling, the recent removal of tariffs on food as a response to concerns about prices is an indication of deep concern in the administration about consumer prices.

The underlying significance of the tariff cuts, as they convey the clear reality that Trump’s assertion that tariffs will not increase prices because they will be paid by foreign suppliers is utterly bogus, may be missed by average voters, but it is a very significant backdown for the President.

A similar pattern of decline in approval from bad to even worse can be seen in the numbers for economic policy, foreign policy in general, and his handling of Russia/Ukraine in particular. (Noting that these numbers pre-date the recent “peace initiative”).

It is important to note that the very controversial issue of immigration, which was central to Trump’s 2024 election campaign and represents much of the public face of the administration also reflects declining approval. However, the decline is smaller, from -2 per cent to -3.7 per cent, and the absolute number is much less negative than most other areas.

There are two policy areas which do not fit with this overall assessment.

One, Trump’s handling of crime reflects the decline in approval seen elsewhere, but his November net approval rating was zero, not negative.

The one area in which Trump’s approval ratings have very significantly improved is his handling of the Israel/Hamas conflict. From July to September the approval rating fell from -7.4 per cent to -13.4 per cent. However, by 23 November approval of his handling of this issue had improved to +2.8 per cent.

It is clear that this improved assessment on the Middle East has not been sufficient to outweigh the various factors contributing to an overall very significant decline in support.

What is the significance of this measurable decline?

First, it suggests that the Democrats should have a very good chance of winning control of the House of Representatives next November and an outside chance of winning control of the Senate. I don’t take very seriously the attempted gerrymanders. I suspect that there is a very real chance that this effort will backfire.

Second, the decline and its possible electoral consequences in 2026 may well lead to further fraying of the MAGA universe.

Third, it suggests that Trump will not win a third term. I am confident that if he thinks he could win Trump will endeavour to manufacture a case for a third term. I have seen Steve Bannon’s confident assertion that Trump ’28 will definitely happen. The reason I don’t believe it will happen is that unless the Democrats perform spectacularly badly in the House from 2026 or err in their selection of a presidential candidate I don’t think Trump can win an election in 2028 if he was to run.

That is a glimmer of light at the end of a long dark tunnel.

https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/12/charting-trumps-decline/

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