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the US real game is NOT TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ...
Seventy years ago, France and the United Kingdom scorned the United States in the Middle East with disastrous results. Today, Paris and London, joined by Berlin and other NATO capitals, are repeating the folly—with far more severe consequences than the 1956 Suez Crisis. Deriding and even obstructing the United States in its war with Iran, Europe is sacrificing its immediate and long-term interests—in the Middle East and on the continent—for the performative act of “standing up” to President Donald Trump.
How the US and Europe Can Open the Strait of Hormuz and Empower Ukraine In exchange for European participation in opening the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration could send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
Schadenfreude over President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz predicament has blinded Europe to the way forward: a Transatlantic bargain over Iran and Ukraine. Instead of self-defeating broadsides at the vindictive US president, European leaders should seize this rare moment of American need, boosting Washington’s clout with Tehran while receiving concrete, war-altering deliverables for Kyiv. The crux of the deal is as straightforward as it is transformative: with broad backing across the continent, states able and willing to join the planned European naval coalition would join the US blockade of Iranian ports. Accepting the administration’s repeated calls for Europe to “step up” in the effort to open the Strait of Hormuz, the E-3—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom —would extract an invaluable American concession: Tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine. The deal would also reverse the disastrous cancellation of US long-range missile deployment to Germany, sparked by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s “humiliating” remarks on the Iran War. With Transatlantic relations in free fall, further punitive actions on the horizon, and the Ankara NATO Summit only two months away, now is the moment for a bold, mutually beneficial offer to stem the crisis. Washington’s eagerness for partners in the strait creates rare leverage for Europe. Equally, by backing the United States at a pivotal moment in the maritime standoff—the mere announcement of European engagement would introduce new costs and complexity for Iran, as the regime hesitates from triggering renewed American strikes. With frigates, destroyers, mine sweepers, aircraft, underwater and aerial drones, the European maritime contingent would improve blockade coverage, reducing the number of Iranian-linked vessels that slip through. European participation would advance the effort to demine the Strait of Hormuz, reassure commercial shipping and global markets, and, ultimately, achieve an agreed protocol for transiting vessels—all aims embedded in the French-British-proposed multinational naval mission. Mirroring the regime’s “eye-for-an-eye” strategy, no European state would join in kinetic operations against Iran—unless attacked by Tehran. Sparked by Paris, London, and Berlin, other states would join the blockade, meeting the urgent administration priority on “collective action…to demonstrate unified resolve and impose meaningful costs on Iranian obstruction of transit through the Strait.” The E-3 could ask non-participating states like Spain to lift all restrictions on US operations, further unifying the Western bloc—and increasing Washington’s incentives to approve the deployment of Tomahawks to Ukraine. The joint US-European effort would isolate Iran while buttressing the legitimacy and standing of the United States as Washington seeks to extract itself from its misadventure. Active European engagement would reinforce US efforts to leverage its influence on China to exert pressure on Iran, as Beijing did with the initial April 8 ceasefire. Already, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for opening the strait in a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, as the Chinese and US presidents prepare to meet in Beijing next week. Contrary to early, sanguine reporting, the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is inflicting acute pain on key Chinese industries, aggravating an already-shaky economic outlook. Rather than mock the US struggle with Iran, European leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz should explain to voters why Europe must join the blockade launched by the continent’s longtime American protector. He and his counterparts have a strong case to make: First, allowing Iran to stifle and extort access to the world’s most critical energy waterway is a permanent threat to European security. However short-sighted Washington’s decision to launch the war, the US-led blockade is the best available means of countering Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Second, participation in the blockade rests on a reasonable legal footing. While Iran’s catastrophic closure of the strait is plainly illegal, according to the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, the US blockade has support in international law. Approval by an international body such as the UN or the European Union, as Germany insists, is not required under international law. Third, with the White House settling in for an “extended blockade,” the only sensible course for Europe is to maximize the chances for its success. Waiting passively for “a negotiated end to hostilities between the United States and Iran” as the condition to deploy the unsettled European naval mission leaves the status quo in Tehran’s hands. Better to deploy now and strengthen the American negotiating position than to carp at the United States. Fourth, participation in the blockade can help protect Europe’s interests in curbing Iran’s nuclear program. In response to the US naval cordon, Tehran is angling to shelve the nuclear file in exchange for an opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This outcome would be a win for Iran: validation of its control over the strait (undercutting any agreed transit protocol) combined with a crippling loss of American leverage on the Iranian nuclear program. The only stabilizing outcome incorporates restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, a deal on the strait with snap-back sanctions. Fifth, the blockade is already a tactical success; European participation can help secure a strategic gain. With the loss of up to 80 percent of its oil exports, Tehran is rapidly running out of storage for the oil produced by its wells. The most conservative assessments, accounting for pre-war growth in Iran’s storage capacity, still foresee an inexorable, short-term shut-in. Shutting in the wells can damage older, low-pressure oil fields, which account for about half of Iran’s oil fields. The sound of a ticking oil clock is discernible. Instead of internal calm, sharp divisions have opened within the political elite, with moderates intent on striking a deal with the United States. Extravagant proclamations of “unwavering unity… and complete allegiance to the Supreme Leader” belie the bitter power struggle. An“alarming surge” in executions reveals the regime’s paranoia and shaky foundations. Instead of the predicted “rally around the flag” effect, the US-Israeli bombing campaign has seen Iranian citizens—including those fleeing the country—continue to wish for the collapse of the regime. European participation in the blockade will intensify these trends, raising the prospects for Pakistani mediation and a near-term, stabilizing settlement. Sixth, humiliation of the United States in the Gulf will solidify the Russo-Iranian strategic partnership while boosting the anti-Western revisionist cause globally.
PLEASE VISIT: YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005. Gus Leonisky POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951. RABID ATHEIST. WELCOME TO THIS INSANE WORLD….
SEE: why australia can't tax the robber gas barons....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nt1CgQsgpI
AS MENTIONED BEFORE ON THIS SITE, THE USA [UNDER ANY PRESIDENT, INCLUDING TRUMP] WANT TO GET THE URANIUM FROM IRAN AS WELL, AS PRESENTLY THE USA NEED TO BUY SOME FROM RUSSIA... A FACT WHICH CHAGRINES THE AMERICANS... AS ONE OF THE CEO OF CHEVRON/SHELL/EXXON [CAN'T REMEMBER WHICH ONE] SAID THE PRICE OF OIL IS STILL TOO LOW...
GUSTHINK: ONE THING IRAN CAN DO: OPEN THE STRAIT FOR THREE DAYS — NO TOLL... LET 1400 SHIPS LOADED WITH OIL SCRAMBLE THROUGH... THEN CLOSE THE STRAIT AGAIN... THIS WOULD DISRUPT THE AMERICAN PIRATE FLEETS, UNABLE TO DEAL WITH ALL SHIPS, INCLUDING IRANIAN OIL TO CHINA [TO BE ESCORTD BY CHINESE NAVY SHIPS], AND WOULD COLLAPSE THE PRICE OF OIL, FEED EUROPE IN A FRENZY AWAY FROM US EXCLUSIVE SUPPLIES... WHO KNOWS...
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