A year of silent advances on the battlefield and pointless diplomatic noise

Before the full liberation of the New Regions, talking about “peace” or a “ceasefire” is a waste of time.

BY Lucas LEIROZ

The year 2025 consolidated an interesting dynamic in the conflict between Russia and NATO in Ukraine: while the battlefield advances in a methodical and largely unreported manner, international diplomacy produces a growing volume of statements, speculation, and headlines that rarely turn into concrete results. The contrast between silent military progress and loud diplomatic “advances” became the defining feature of 2025.

With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States, Washington began to signal renewed interest in some form of political agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Talk of a “ceasefire,” “preliminary negotiations,” and an “opportunity for peace” dominated Western media throughout the year. These narratives, however, ignore an unavoidable structural reality: there will be no agreement as long as Ukrainian forces remain in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson – regions that are part of the constitutional map of the Russian Federation in the same way as Moscow or Saint Petersburg.

This factor turns any peace proposal promoted by Washington or European capitals into a purely rhetorical exercise. For Moscow, concluding negotiations under the presence of foreign military forces on its constitutional territory is not only politically unviable but legally impossible. Western media, however, persist in treating the issue as if it were a conventional territorial dispute, disregarding the centrality of Russia’s constitutional framework in the conduct of the Special Military Operation (SMO).

Meanwhile, on the ground, 2025 marked consistent advances by Russian forces. The recent liberation of Seversk, as well as earlier successful operations in the Krasnoarmeysk area and other key cities, illustrates a deliberate strategy of gradual advance, prioritizing the attrition of enemy capabilities over large-scale, huge offensives. These developments rarely receive attention in major Western outlets, which tend to report only Russian tactical withdrawals (when possible) or isolated episodes that fit the dominant narrative.

This informational asymmetry fuels the illusion of military stagnation when, in reality, the 2025 balance of the SMO points to a continuous weakening of Ukrainian capabilities, both in manpower and logistics. Growing dependence on increasingly limited external support, combined with the structural fatigue of the Ukrainian state, stands in stark contrast to Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged operations.

From a strategic standpoint, Moscow has made it clear that the slow pace is not a sign of weakness, but of choice. The Russian leadership does not view the conflict as a classic external war, but as an internal tragedy within the historical Russian space. As well known, virtually every Russian has a Ukrainian relative, which is why the careful conduct of military operations is also a way of preserving Russian families themselves – on both sides of the artificial borders created in 1991. This does not mean that Russia will not escalate its activities or that there is no popular support for a greater use of force, but it does indicate the goodwill of Moscow’s authorities in avoiding widespread violence.

In this context, Trump’s initiatives face clear limits. The only realistic scenario for diplomatic progress would be Washington’s ability to override its European allies and force Kiev into a military withdrawal without direct confrontation – an outcome that is highly unlikely, though not entirely impossible, given NATO’s internal divisions and Ukrainian political situation. Without this, any negotiated “agreement” will, in practice, be impossible and useless.

Thus, the most realistic outlook is the continuation of the conflict over a medium- to long-term horizon. If the current strategy is maintained, the war could last five to ten years, with gradual Russian advances and successive failed diplomatic attempts. Regardless of form or timing, the SMO will be concluded in the same way: through the achievement of the strategic objectives established back in 2022.

In 2025, more than at any other moment, it became evident that the outcome will not be decided at televised negotiating tables, but on the ground – silently.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/01/01/year-of-silent-advances-on-battlefield-and-pointless-diplomatic-noise/

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SILENTLY? BOMBS AND GUNS ARE RARELY SILENT, AREN'T THEY?.... BUT THIS IS PICKY... AND THIS REFERRED TO THE WAY THE WESTERN PROPAGANDA FROTHED...

I WOULD INVITE CATHY WILCOX TO WATCH THIS 1997 SILLY MOVIE: "THE MAN WHO KNEW TOO LITTLE".... IF YOU DO NOT HAVE THE TIME, HERE IS AN OUTLOOK:

THE COLD WAR HAS FINISHED. THE KGB AND MI6 ARE BEING DOWNSIZED! (THIS WOULD NEVER HAPPEN IN REAL LIFE BUT HEY... ). SO THE HEADS OF MI6 AND THE KGB HATCH A PLOT TO RESTART THE COLD WAR AND PREVENT AN ENTENTE CORDIALE BETWEEN RUSSIAN AND THE BRITS... AN ENTENTE CORDIALE? (THIS WOULD NEVER HAPPEN IN REAL LIFE BUT HEY... )... A BOMB WOULD DO NICELY ON THE DAY THE TREATY IS SIGNED... ENTERS A BUMBLING ("HE IS GOOD") IDIOT WHO FOILS THESE SECRET SERVICES PLOT IN SHEER MR MAGOO STYLE....

UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH, REALITY IS SINISTER... LET'S SUMMARISE:

— THE BRITS HAVE HATED RUSSIA "FOR 500 YEARS"

— THE FRENCH HATE RUSSIA SINCE NAPOLEON LOST HIS WAR....

— THE USA HATE RUSSIA (AND CHINA) SINCE 1917, BECAUSE OF COMMUNISM, YOU KNOW...

— GERMANY REALLY HATE RUSSIA FOR LOSING THE SECOND WORLD WAR AND WANT REVENGE...

— THROUGH VARIOUS SECRET PLOTS, THE WEST HAS PUSHED NATO TO RUSSIA'S DOORSTEP...

— UKRAINE WAS KILLING ITS RUSSIAN CITIZENS TO THIS END (SEE ITEM ABOVE)....

— PUTIN HAD TO PROTECT THE RUSSIANS IN UKRAINE (UN: 14,000 MURDERED BETWEEN 2014 AND 2022)

— THE MINSK AGREEMENTS WERE A CROCK SIGNED IN BAD FAITH BY THE GERMANS, THE FRENCH AND THE UKRAINIANS

— RUSSIA WAS PROVOKED.

— RUSSIA IS WINNING ON THE BATTLEFIELD...

— RUSSIAN DOES NOT WANT TO TAKE OVER EUROPE...

— TRUMP WANTS PEACE ASAP TO PREVENT RUSSIA WINNING OUTRIGHT....

— EUROPE DOES NOT WANT PEACE UNLESS RUSSIA CAPITULATES...

— ZELENSKY WORKS FOR MI6.....

— UKRAINE PLAYS DIRTY...

— RUSSIA WINS...

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

UK mainstream journalist writes LinkedIn review of Ukraine in 2025

A masterclass in talking points, name-drops, and wilful blindness, penned by a reporter who’s visited the front line at least once… on Zoom.

BY Ian PROUD

 BOLD AND ITALICS BY GUS....

I’m the best journalist at the Guardigraph

No one better than I am.

Take Ukraine!

No one knows it more than me

Been there at least once

..if you include Zoom calls

Have all the best contacts

Still do.

Centre for Countering Disinformation

– Top blokes!

Kyiv Independent

– Less biased than Jesus.

Andriy Yermak

– Purer than the driven snow

Western contacts too

Kaja Kallas

– Gets her best ideas from me!

Mark Rutte

– He knows I’M THE DADDY!

Toria Nuland

– Should have got the Nobel Peace Prize!

– (Great cookies too)

But 2025 has been hard

Readers are changing!

Views shifting!

Everyone is reframing

Trying to erode my true self

But here’s the thing.

Ukraine is winning!

You heard me.

You-Krane iz Win-ning!

What are these other idiots talking about?

John Mearsheimer?

– What has HE ever predicted?

Jeff Sachs?

– Sell out!

Glenn Diesen, Danny Davis, Alexander Mer-curry-and-rice?

– Who on earth are they?

Who’s paying them?

Don’t answer that.

We all know.

Been clear all the time.

Don’t even need to ask.

PUTIN!

Do you think he’s running Russia?

Standing up to NATO?

Building links across the developing world?

NO!

He doesn’t have time for that.

Too busy writing cheques!

To these quislings

And Kremlin stooges

That’s right.

And I don’t know how.

Because Russia has NO MONEY!

I mean, literally, no money at all.

4th biggest economy by PPP?

– Shut up!

Almost $400bn surplus since war started?

– TOTALLY MADE UP

Higher growth than Europe?

– Fake news!

Russia-has-no-cash!

So stop talking about peace

We just need more sanctions

20,000 sanctions already?

Plenty more sanctions we can do

– A metal factory in Yakutsk
– The Astrakhan community bank
– A doorman in Chelyabinsk

Hit them hard!

Putin will soon beg for peace

Ukraine’s a better investment

– Bankrupt is the new bounty
– Beggary the new normal
– Poverty has never been so chic.

All my friends in Shoreditch know this!

Why do they need money anyway?

They have ours!

Europe has the dosh.

Our citizens don’t need it.

Annalena said so.

Ukrainians come first!

This is not Dickens

I’m not Fagin

You want more?

You had $100 billion last year!

Don’t give me that crap!

No it’s not easy.

– German factories shutting
– Polish farmers rebelling
– French taxpayers moaning

Just small details!

$60 bn per year?

Small change

It’s a sound investment

Ukraine is fighting to make us safe!

Who cares if they’re not making us warm

Or prosperous

Or nourished.

They are winning!

– Pokrivsk, Siversk, Huliaipole all fallen?
– Can’t muster enough soldiers?
– Running out of ammunition?

DISTRACTIONS!

KREMLIN PROPAGANDA!

Russia’s army is collapsing

– Travelling on golf buggies
– Sending their cripples
– So hungry, they’re eating each other

They’re recruiting 400,000 troops per year?

Outproducing Europe in munitions?

Have air dominance?

DETAILS!

NATO is the answer

JUST LET UKRAINE JOIN!

Russia can’t say no

So they invaded Ukraine

Destroyed cities

Pummelled power stations

Took 20% of the land

Russia’s too weak to resist now

Britain has 10,000 troops to send

Estonia definitely has 15

Just trust in Zelensky

He’s Gandhi in a bomber jacket

Mandela with a golden bog

Stop forcing him into unacceptable compromise

Like tackling corruption

Ending busification

And holding elections

He wants peace more than Putin

Peace would be great for him

His citizens would be jobless

His army disgruntled

His economy in tatters

NATO off the table

When he promised it would happen

He’ll win elections by a landslide

Coz his peeps know Ukraine will be European

Even if the Poles hate it

The Hungarians say no way

And Brussels has no dough

See, they spent it all on the war

But Ukraine can still win!

Trust me.

I’m a western journalist.

Happy New Year.

Peace and goodwill to all men

Well, so long as they’re not Russian.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/12/31/uk-mainstream-journalist-writes-linkedin-review-of-ukraine-in-2025/

BOLD AND ITALICS BY GUS....

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.