America Has Already Lost the Iran War

GREG JOHNSON

America lost the Iran War on the first day.

Pyrrhus of Epirus was one of the greatest generals of the ancient world. In 279 BCE, Pyrrhus defeated the Romans in the Battle of Asculum in Southern Italy. But the battle was so costly to Pyrrhus that he remarked that one more such “victory” would ruin him. This is the origin of the term “Pyrrhic victory,” meaning a victory that is really a defeat.

The lesson here is that the real victor is not the one who prevails on the battlefield but rather whoever gains power from the fight. By that standard, some battles have no victors. By that standard, the United States lost the Iran War on the first day.

The greater part of military power is bluff, i.e., the power to intimidate others into compliance without drawing one’s sword.

For more than half a century, the United States built an archipelago of military bases in the Middle East offering protection to the Gulf monarchies. In exchange for what? The US doesn’t import oil or gas from the Gulf, although, as we are all learning, Gulf exports still affect prices in America. The quid pro quo for American protection is the “petrodollar.”

Even though the US doesn’t buy oil in the Gulf, purchases are still paid for in US dollars. Thus importers like Japan must first purchase US dollars, which the Gulf states then use to buy US Treasury securities and other dollar-denominated assets, effectively financing US borrowing at lower interest rates.

The petrodollar system allows the US to run massive budget and trade deficits and create credit by ensuring a consistent, global demand for dollars. Without the constant stream of petrodollars washing back into the US, the Treasury would have to pay higher interest rates to service America’s immense national debt. Basically, the petrodollar system is keeping the US government solvent.

But the protection America offered the Gulf states was all a bluff. And Iran has now called it.

We had ample warning that a war on Iran might be disastrous for the American empire and the petrodollar in particular:

• Iran warned us that an Israeli-American attack would trigger retaliation against the Gulf states.
• Iran also warned the United States that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, shutting off the Gulf’s oil, gas, and other exports.
• We knew that Iran was committed to asymmetrical warfare strategies to counter America’s vastly larger and more expensive military. We had nearly four years to learn about drone warfare in Ukraine. Just last year, we saw Iran and its allies exhausting Israeli defenses with missile barrages.

Those warnings were ignored.

Iran has now destroyed America’s military bases and radar installations in the Gulf states. The United States has also sent ordinance to intercept missiles and drones from the Gulf states to Israel, because Israel First.

Beyond that, Iran has proved to the Gulf States that it can completely destroy their economies and—by striking their desalinization plants—render them uninhabitable. In short, Iran can send the sheiks back to the camel age—and America won’t protect them.

Since the war started, however, Iran has increased its oil exports by more than 25%, and the price of oil has more than doubled. Tankers filled with Iranian oil are safely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In short, the United States has given Iran billions by starting this war. Moreover, the US can’t really afford to stop Iran’s exports, because that would drive global prices even higher. In fact, the US has desanctioned Iranian oil to cut prices. The US may even be buying Iranian oil, i.e., paying for more of the drones and missiles that have killed American soldiers.

What’s more, Iran is allowing other tankers to leave the Gulf, provided they pay a toll to Iran and their cargoes are not denominated in dollars. Once this war is over and their own export industries are back online, the Gulf states are going to be asking themselves why they are taking petrodollars again if they aren’t getting any quid for their quo. But without the petrodollar, America will take giant strides toward outright insolvency.

So let’s take stock. Even if the United States totally wrecks Iran on the battlefield and Trump declares victory, will the United States be stronger and more secure?

• The global economy is wrecked.
• There will be famine in the Third World.
• More migrants and refugees will be heading to Europe.
• The Pax Americana may be wrecked. I hate the American empire, and in the long run, it needs to be wound down. But in the short run, we will start missing it when conflicts start popping up in places you’ve never heard of. Beyond that, there are other things I want to do first, and I would prefer to carefully and deliberately disengage from empire, not see it simply collapse.
• The petrodollar may be wrecked. It’s a fundamentally unjust system that needs to be replaced, but in the meantime, there will be a lot of suffering. Again, America has more pressing problems, and I would rather wind the petrodollar down deliberately, not see it simply collapse.
• Worst of all, the Left will almost surely return to power in the United States, which means that what’s left of Trump’s positive achievements—closed borders, deportations, rolling back anti-white initiatives—will be reversed.

So no, America won’t be stronger and more secure because of this war. We lost. We lost on the first day. Because the only way to have won this war was not to start it. Moreover, this outcome was entirely predictable. There were people in the Pentagon, even in the White House, who knew better. So why did the war happen?

The simple answer is that this war was never about benefiting the United States. It never would have happened if we put America First. It was all about benefiting Israel, at the expense of America and the rest of the world.

The Jews know America is a declining power. They know that their power in America is declining as well. Their supporters are disproportionately Baby Boomers, who are entering their 80s and beginning to die off. Thus the Jews were in a rush to squeeze one last war out of America, before they discard the dry husk.

So who are the winners of the Iran War?

• Israel is being wrecked by Iranian retaliation, but they are counting on everything being rebuilt at US expense, and they also have a rather low threshold for winning this war. For America to feel good about this war, we had to see Iran turned into a liberal democracy. Israel merely wants to see Iran wrecked, like Iraq and Syria. That’s easy to achieve. If Israel is merely less wrecked than Iran, they will be relatively more powerful and secure.
• Russia is winning because oil and gas prices are rising, export sanctions are being abandoned, and materiel that could be helping Ukraine is being diverted to the Iran War.
• China is the biggest winner. Since China is America’s main global rival, they grow stronger and more secure simply by doing nothing while America squanders its wealth and power in the Gulf. When all this is over, China will appear to be a far more reliable ally and trading partner.

Frankly, Trump seems to have gone mad. Still, he has enough sense to realize the mess he’s in. But he doesn’t see any way out. Israel will continue to escalate the war until someone in Washington has the courage to say “no,” which will probably require removing Netanyahu from power.

Absent that, Trump must simply hope and pray, hence his frantic lies and improvisations.

What’s he counting on? He can’t bankrupt his way out of this problem.

Trump is 79 years old. Like every other spendthrift of his generation, he probably consoles himself with the thought that he’ll be dead before America will face the full consequences of his folly.

In the meantime, he’s posting about imaginary negotiations to manipulate the stock and commodity markets, while his Jewish friends make billions from the volatility.

Basically, he’s joined in the looting.

https://www.unz.com/article/america-has-already-lost-the-iran-war/

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